High Probability Trading Strategies Using CFDs

High probability trading strategies for CFDs are highly desirable. These strategies are easier to trade because they provide more winning trades.

The impact of leverage is not as great as these strategies are less likely to have losing streaks so the drawdown is reduced.

High probability trading strategies are not necessarily the right direction to focus on with your research.

Trading Is Not About Being Right

The success of a trading strategy is dependent on two factors, how often the strategy wins and the risk reward of the strategy. It is the combination of these two factors that determines the results, not one of them in isolation.

Consider the following trading strategy that is profitable 95% of the time. The strategy wins $100 on each profitable trade, so from 100 trades the strategy makes $9,500 trades on average. But what happens on the other 5% of the trades.

If the average loss is $2,500 then the strategy loses $12,500 based on 5% of the 100 trades. Even though this strategy is right very often it still loses money. It is not one or the other measure in isolation, it is the combination of win% and the risk reward.

You Will Still Have Losses

The strategy that is often used to get high probability trading strategies is to use wide stop losses and small profit targets. One hot selling product is FAP Turbo, the forex trading robot, that uses this idea to achieve a hit rate of 95%.

All goes well until you experience a series of large losses. The losses can be reduced by tightening the stop loss, but this is very likely to reduce the number of times the strategy wins.

Balancing The Tradeoff

Finding an optimal relationship between the level of the stop loss and the success rate of the strategy requires testing the idea to determine the trade off between risk/reward and success rate.

Testing chart pattern breakouts I found the best trades breakout and keep going. With this entry idea a tight stop can be used to gain better results by giving a higher risk reward. Testing profit targets also gave interesting results improving the win%, but reducing the profitability overall.

Make Money First, Be Right Later

A trend following strategy is right around 30% of the time, but when it does win it wins big, with a risk reward of 3 or more. This is a profitable trading strategy.

A short term scalping strategy that wins 70% of the time with a risk reward of 1:1 is also profitable.

In the pursuit of being right and chasing high probability trading strategies, remember to ensure that trading is about making money, not being right.

Source: Jeff Cartridge

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