Calendar
What’s going on?
| Theme Comment |
- Chinese figures again disappointing: Ind. Prod. YoY out at 7.3% vs. 8.6% expected. Foreign Business Registrations in China dropped 41%.
- According to the National Assoc. of Realtors: US Home Prices dropped the most on record in Q1, down 14%. No stabilization there. 6.3% of all US mortgages are seriously (+90 days) delinquent.
- Stocks again closed lower in the US, but not much – some buyers around 900. Beware of Retail Sales today. We believe that the numbers will disappoint, showing a contraction of 0.5% in both Headline and ex Autos. That could trigger more downside for stocks.
FX
| FX | Daily stance | Comment |
| EURUSD | 0/- | 1.3725-35 res crucial for test of 1.3820+. May hold. Suppt at 1.3625 |
| EURJPY | 0/- | Seen capped at 132.50-70 for a re-test of y’day’s low 130.75 |
| USDJPY | 0/- | Up-move likely limited to 96.75-97.00 for reversal down to 95.50-60 |
| GBPUSD | 0/- | Seen capped at 1.5350 for retracement down to 1.5200-25 suppt |
| EURNOK | 0/- | Expect temp cap at 0.7710-20 to hold with a slow drift lower to 0.7600 lvl |
Equities
| Equities | Daily stance | Comment |
| DAX | 0/- | Sell at the break of 4833 targeting 4773. S/L above 4885. |
| FTSE | 0/- | Sell at the break of 4410 targeting 4378 initially, 4330 finally. S/L above 4450. |
| S&P500 | 0/- | Sell at the break of 903 targeting 888. S/L above 910. |
| Nasdaq100 | 0/- | |
| Nikkei225 | 0/- |
Futures
| Commodities | Daily Stance | Comment |
| Gold(XAUUSD) | 0/+ | Buy around 925 and target 936. Stop below 919. |
| Silver(XAGUSD) | + | Buy around 14.30 and target 14.60. Stop below 14.15. |
| Oil (CLM9) | 0/- | Sell at the break of 59.20 and target 58.00. Stop above 59.70. |
FX Options
| FX-Options | Comment |
| EURUSD | The curve is largely unchanged with the dollar selloff in early Asian session. We are likely |
| to see spot continuing to grind higher or settle into a range. | |
| USDJPY | Market started to panic on the move in spot lower and paid up front end along with the |
| Risk reversals. Likely to see continued nervousness on the downside. | |
| AUDUSD | Vols are better supported today but gamma should come under pressure should spot fail |
| To break new ground. Mid curve still finds buyers . |
| Economic Data Releases | |||||
| Country | Time (GMT) | Name | Expectation | Prior | Comment |
| UK | 09:30 | Bank of England Inflation Report | – | – | |
| US | 12:30 | Advance Retail Sales Less Autos (APR) | 0.2% | -0.9% | |
| US | 14:00 | Business Inventories (MAR) | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| Earnings Releases | |||||
| Country | Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT) | Name | EPS exp. | EPS prior | Comment |
| UK | – | First Group |
0.478 |
0.410 | |
| FR | 15:45 | Vallourec | 3.280 | 4.870 | |
| US | Bef-Mkt | Macy’s | -0.197 | 1.008 |