Liquidity conditions in emerging markets (EM) are tight, which bodes ill for EM equities. R ecent data shows that the trade balance in emerging markets has continued deteriorating, a phenomenon that typically entails lower share prices. Falling commodity prices will support this negative trend for many EM countries. One of the implications is that developing […]
Tag Archives: Emerging Markets
China and Caterpillar surprise pushing stocks higher
Is China set for slowdown and not crash landing after all? Overnight in Europe China’s preliminary PMI figures were released showing that China’s manufacturing may have expanded in October, which would be for the first time in four months. This data combined with better-than-expected export data from Japan indicates that emerging market economies are holding up and […]
Jeremy Grantham: “S&P worth no more than 950″
Jeremy Grantham has become a familiar and very popular face on this site. For those treasuring his insight, wisdom and prescient calls, the co-founder and chairman of Boston-based GMO has just published the August edition of his popular newsletter. In the context of today’s turbulent markets, Grantham’s Letter revisits his early 2009 piece “The Last […]
Posted in Forex Trading, Futures Trading, General, Market Reports, Stock Trading, Trade Ideas
Also tagged Boston Common, Commodities, global assets, Jeremy Grantham, S&P 500, Stocks
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Emerging Markets Make a Huge Comeback
Emerging markets were a struggling asset through the first two and a half months of 2011, but they have been on fire since mid-March. Below we provide trading range charts for 8 emerging market ETFs that cover various parts of the world. As you can see, all of them are currently trading more than two […]
Posted in General
Also tagged Assets, bespoke invest, ETFs, Trading, trading range charts
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FALLING DOLLAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO RISING COMMODITIES
In my Tuesday message, I agreed with the Fed chairman that commodity prices were rising against all currencies. That doesn’t mean, however, that the falling U.S. Dollar isn’t a major contributor to rising commodities. After all, global commodities are priced in dollars. Chart 3 shows that the latest surge in the CRB Commodity Index began […]
Posted in General
Also tagged Charts, Commodities, CRB Commodity Index, Currencies, dollar, Fed, Inflation, Us Dollar, Us Dollar Index
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Australia’s ASX Suffers Tech Glitch, $1.5B Lost
SYDNEY—Trading on the Australian Securities Exchange, or ASX, was halted midway through the afternoon on Monday, as a technical glitch cost the exchange an estimated 1.5 billion Australian dollars (US$1.53 billion) of turnover. ASX Ltd., which is awaiting regulatory approval for a US$7.9 billion takeover by the Singapore Stock Exchange, said it was experiencing technical […]
Posted in General
Also tagged ASX, Australian Stock Exchange, CFD Trading, Cfds, SGX, Singapore Stock Exchange, Stock Market, Stock Trading, Stocks
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Chart of the week: fighting inflation
With the FAO food price index at its highest level ever and prices of many commodities reaching new records, rising inflation has become a key concern around the world. The problem is especially pernicious in emerging markets, where food consumption accounts for a larger share of families’ expenditures and where a surge of capital inflows […]
Posted in General
Also tagged China, Commodities, Economists, FAO, Indonesia, Inflation, Interest Rates
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Country Market Caps
Below we highlight the percentage of world market cap for the largest countries in the world according to Bloomberg. We also highlight how much each country’s percent of world market cap changed in 2010. As shown, even though US markets gained last year, the country’s percent of world market cap declined slightly. The US still […]
Posted in General
Also tagged bespoke invest, Bloomberg, China, gains, Japan, market, US, world market
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Final 2010 Global Market Performance
Below we highlight the 2010 returns (in local currencies) for equity markets around the world. As shown, the average country saw its major equity market index gain 15.33% in 2010. Sri Lanka’s stock market gained the most at 96.01%, while Bermuda declined the most at -44.87%. Six other countries along with Sri Lanka gained more than 50% in 2010 […]
Posted in General
Also tagged 2010, Bermuda, bespoke invest, Canada, developed markets, equity market, G-7 countries, gain, Germany, Sri Lanka, Stock Market Performance, Trend
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Rosenberg’s 10 themes for 2011
Following Richard Bernstein’s rather upbeat “11 themes for 2011” posted late last week, his former Merrill’s colleague David Rosenberg (now Chief Economist and Strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates) has just published his thoughts on the lie of a considerably more bearish investment land. Here are Rosie’s themes for 2011: 1. Consensus views of 1,350 […]
Posted in General
Also tagged bearish investment, Bloomberg, Corporate Bonds, David Rosenberg, Economic Growth, equities, fiscal, fiscal borrowing, Gdp, Gluskin Sheff & Associates, S&P 500, US, Yen
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Richard Bernstein’s 11 themes for 2011
Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors (previously Chief Investment Strategist and Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Merrill Lynch) has just formulated his top 11 predictions for next year. Bernstein’s thoughtful ideas come courtesy of The Big Picture blog. View full article here. Source: www.investmentpostcards.com
Posted in General
Also tagged 2011, Bonds, Gold, investment strategies, investment themes, Merrill Lynch, Richard Bernstein, S&P 500, Stocks, treasury rates, Us Dollar
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World Gold Council: Gold statistics for Q3 2010
The World Gold Council yesterday published the latest issue of Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2010, which suggests demand for gold for the rest of 2010 will be underpinned by the following market forces: Outlook • Increasing demand by the world’s two largest markets, India and China, as rising income levels, high savings rates and […]
Posted in General
Also tagged Adam Hewison, China, consumer, Currency, demand, Economic Growth, Gold statistics, high savings rate, income levels, India, Inflation, Trends for Q3 2010, Us Dollar, World Gold Council
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Monday links: fixing the dinosaur
Quote of the day Malcolm Gladwell, “To someone like Rattner, there is nothing wrong with giving a dinosaur money if you think you can fix the dinosaur. One might even say that the private-equity investor prefers the dinosaur, because dinosaurs are cheap, which increases the potential profit at the end.” (New Yorker) Markets Earnings revisions […]
Posted in General
Also tagged algo robots, Apple, Chicago Fed National Activity, Citigroup, Earnings, Economic Releases, Economy, Etf, Goldman Sachs, home sales, Inflation, ipad, Microsoft, profitability, quote of the day, strategy, TIPS market, Traders, Us Dollar, Wall Street
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2010 Country GDP Growth Estimates
Below we highlight consensus 2010 GDP growth estimates for 28 countries (+Europe) based on Bloomberg’s survey of economists. As shown, all but one country is expected to see GDP growth in 2010. Spain is the lone country expected to see a decline in GDP at -0.40%. China is expected to see the most growth by […]
Posted in Market Reports
Also tagged Asian ETFs, China, Emerging Markets ETFs, Gdp, Hong Kong
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Emerging Markets with Mark Mobius
Emerging markets have been outperforming thus far in 2009, do you think this trend will continue for the rest of the year? Although we are optimistic about the opportunities for upside potential, it is important to realize the volatility is still with us and will be with us for some time. This means there will […]
Posted in ETFs
Also tagged Asian ETFs, Brazil ETF, China ETF, Etf, Exchange Traded Fund, India ETF, Russia ETF, Thailand ETF
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International Market Snapshot
Below we highlight our trading range charts of the major stock indices of 22 countries. For each chart, the light blue shading represents between one standard deviation above and below the index’s 50-day moving average. The red shading is between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day moving average, and moves into or above […]
Emerging Markets Continue to Surge in 2009
Russia’s RTS stock index was up another 3.2% today, while China was up 1.71% and India was up 2.3%. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries continue to surge higher in 2009, as they’ve far outpaced stock markets of so-called “developed’ countries. Below we highlight their year to date performance compared to the S&P 500. […]
Past the worst?
The debate rages on regarding whether the global business cycle has started to stabilize, with most of the “green shoots” arguments based on softer data such as Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) appearing “less bad”. Although this is not the same as “good”, one should be aware of the fact that a bottoming process of the […]
Emerging Markets: Russia’s Market Has Surged
MOSCOW – Despite continuing weakness in the Russian economy, the stock exchange here has surged to become the best performing in the world, after being the worst last fall. Dmitry Astakhov, via Reuters/RIA Novosti, via Kremlin With an economy heavily skewed toward energy, Russia saw its stock market rebound to become one of the world’s […]
Time for a New Strategy? ETFs are Becoming very popular.
IF the last 18 months have taught Americans anything, it’s that market collapses don’t discriminate. Even the most sophisticated and affluent investors lost big chunks of their fortunes. Access to the most exclusive hedge funds did not always limit the damage, as many participants had hoped it would. As a result, a new mentality has […]