Squawk Box Europe – Bill McLaren

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX DAILY CHART

There is a chance, a probability for a high today or Monday. When the July “False Break” low was hit I indicated three probabilities. A new leg up running to a minimum 1247 in 90 to 99 calendar days, a secondary high or fast rally that exhausts before a new high usually 7/8 of the range down in 60 to 65 calendar days. Or a lower double top and this is where the index is now located. So as the index moves into these time window we need to look at the wave structure, volume, price level and the pattern of the trend to confirm the probability. The index is at the “OBVIOUS” resistance of the previous high and now within the time window at 180 days.

There is a 5 wave structure up (5 or 3of 3), volume has been decreasing but not unusual if the trend were up at this stage, but the pattern of trend is not setting up well. Notice how small the daily ranges have become. High points and tops tend to have some volatility. Notice the expansion of ranges during the January top and the April top and in this case the ranges are narrowing. If there is a move down it is possible to see just one to three days down and resumption of the trend due to the resistance being “obvious.”

Running out cycles from the July low has 45 days on the 15th and if a low could indicate a 90 day move up. If this is a counter trend rally in a down trending market the highest probability is to run out 60 to 65 days or out to the first week in September. If there is a high point now it should not exceed 1134. I don’t like the odds for a top due to the small range days and the probability the move down could be a small counter trend down. The small range days leaves a possibility of a large spike up. If today can not advance following yesterday’s reversal up and a daily low is broken I’ll consider a short term move down to trade but I doubt the trend reversal. I hate those small range days as it usually indicates support coming in at high levels and an exhaustion up might be necessary to eliminate the buyers.

GOLD

The two weeks ago I said gold would go to 154 to 157 for a low at 50% of the last leg up. We are now looking for this rally to fail and confirm a downtrend into one of the major support. The move down to 50% of the last leg up to consolidated that leg up. I felt the entire trend since 2008 needed to be consolidated so we are looking for this rally to fail and run down to ¼ of the major range which is the minimum move down to correct or consolidate a major trend or 1122. Once gold establishes a downtrend there is a fast rally as occurred in this uptrend as noted with arrows and this occurs in almost all up trends. So we are looking for evidence this rally will fail at a price above 1212 and possibly on the 12th of August at 1220. If the index runs past 12 trading days there is no high in place and a new high is likely. The pattern of the downtrend was weak so we need solid evidence to conclude a lower high is in place. But that is what we are looking to occur.

Source: McLaren Report

Richard Russell: “A hard rain lies ahead”

Love him or hate him, 85-year old Richard Russell is the doyen of investment letter writers – having been at it for more than half a century – and his views as expressed in his daily Dow Theory Letters always make for stimulating reading. The paragraphs below summarize the R man’s “big picture” view of the U.S. stock market.

“I want to say that I have a number of reasons for being convinced we have been in an upward correction [referring to the rally that commenced in March 2009] in an ongoing primary bear market. Some of this is based on my interpretation of the 50% Principle, plus my analysis of the very poor action of the “internal market” [i.e. market breadth] over recent weeks.

“I envision the Dow dropping to test, and possibly violate, the 6,547 level. I don’t know whether this will take place this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it does. It would not surprise me if the Dow tests the 6,547 level. And if that happens, I can almost guarantee the US will have sunk into the much-feared “double-dip” recession.

“If the US begins to shrink into a double-dip recession, I expect the Obama administration to go ‘wild’ with new stimuli and ‘make-work’ programs, all of which will be financed with higher taxes (‘soak the rich’) and a further major expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. I would also expect every central bank in the world to simultaneously open their money-printing spigots wide, wide, wide.

“Conclusion in a nutshell: the secret of the forthcoming picture lies with the action of the U.S. stock market. Again I’ll remind my subscribers that the function of the stock market is to discount the future, not to mirror the present. All news is history. Or as Wall Street puts it, “news known is news discounted”.

“One of the biggest mistakes amateurs make is to think something they know is unknown and not already discounted by the market. Despite this, the media insist on describing every move of the stock market as being a reaction to some current event or some new government statistic. They couldn’t be further off the mark. As I read it, the poor action of the current stock market is telling us that the future for the U.S. is bearish and a hard rain lies ahead.

“At this juncture, sophisticated, wealthy people are not concerned with increasing their fortunes, rather they are searching for ways to conserve what wealth they have.”

Source: Dow Theory Letters, July 19, 2010 & http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/21/richard-russell-%E2%80%9Ca-hard-rain-lies-ahead%E2%80%9D/

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) – Listing Today

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) is due to list today (22-July) at 11:00am.

Company Overview

Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area of in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:

• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins);
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).

For more information, please visit http://www.guildfordcoal.com.au/

1929 Peak versus 2000 Peak?

In a post yesterday, we questioned whether the Dow was really in the midst of repeating a pattern it went through in the early part of the Great Depression.  The post got a few comments suggesting that we make a different comparison:

• You should really plot what Louise Yamada has been saying for a long long time. She says that the entire market episode from 1928 to 1945 is being repeated all over again if you start your clock in 1999. By that count, the current year corresponds to 1939. It will be great if you could plot these charts. If Louise is right, and past is the prelude, then we are in for choppy market action for another five or six years.
• I agree with the comment about Louise’s assessment, especially if you use the Nasdaq composite from 1999 vs the Dow from 1929. I believe it’s a fairer comparison as our economy today is more technology based, whereas it was industrial based in the 30′s.
• You’re comparing the wrong time frames. Compare starting at DOW at 1929 and DOW at 2000, then look at the chart.

For those that asked for the charts with the new comparisons, here you go:

Source: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/20/1929-peak-versus-2000-peak.html

Jeremy Grantham: “I am merely fearful”

Jeremy Grantham has become a familiar and very popular face on this site. For those treasuring his insight, wisdom and prescient calls, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston-based GMO has just published the July edition of his quarterly newsletter entitled “Summer Essays”.

Here are a few excerpts from Grantham’s newsletter.

“I am still committed to my idea of April 2009 that there would be a ‘last hurrah’ of the market, supported psychologically by a substantial economic recovery but then, after a year or so, that this would be followed by a transition into a long, difficult period that I called the ‘seven lean years’. I had, though, supposed that the economic reflex recovery – how could it not bounce with that flood of governmental help to everyone’s top line? – would last longer or at least not slow down as fast as we have seen in the last few weeks. And with unexpectedly strong fiscal conservatism from Europe and perhaps from us, this slowdown looks downright frightening. I recognize that in this I agree with Krugman, but I can live with that once in a while. However, where I am merely fearful, he is talking about another ‘Depression’.

“Despite growing nervousness and despite a slowing economy, I am so impressed by the power of low rates and Greenspanism (for lack of a better or shorter description) that I would still put odds of 45% (down from 50% last quarter) for the market to rise to over 1400 (down from 1500 to 1600 last quarter) by October of next year, accompanied by a speculative spin. On the other hand, I also have to recognize that the 21% I put on a quick and rapid decline to fair value looks even more likely today, perhaps closer to 30%.

“If the market does indeed continue down the current sell-off path, it should result in some unusual movement in the Russell 2000 (small cap index) and possibly even the junky stocks, which might give up their unusual relative strength in a real hurry. I can imagine a situation, for example, where the Russell 2000 gives up a relative 10% in two to three weeks as the aggressive investment world finally has second thoughts on the wisdom of continuing to speculate and changes its mind in its usual rapid way. (Remember, you read it here first.) High quality is perhaps not so promising in this respect, but could still win by several percentage points if the world becomes more circumspect. It would be more typical for quality to outperform over several years.”

Click here for the full report (registration is required).

Source – http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/20/jeremy-grantham-%e2%80%9ci-am-merely-fearful%e2%80%9d/

Booming Mac sales drive Apple’s best-ever quarter

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Record Macintosh and lighting-fast iPad sales made Apple’s latest quarter its best ever, the company said Tuesday.

Sales for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company rose to a record $15.7 billion, 61% higher than Apple’s sales in this quarter last year. Net income rose to $3.25 billion, up 78% from a year ago.

Apple sold 3.27 million iPads, which hit the market on April 3, and it sold 3.47 million Macintosh computers — more than it has ever sold before in a three-month stretch.

Read full article at http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/20/technology/apple_earnings/index.htm

Optimism on U.S. Wanes as Growth Outlook Drops, Merrill Says

Bloomberg – Investors were the most bearish on U.S. stocks in at least four years as money manager scaled back their outlook for global growth and raised their cash holdings, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research survey showed.

A net 14 percent of respondents, who together manage about $530 billion, said the U.S. was the region they would most like to have under-represented in their investments, a level not since November 2006. Last month, the same amount said America was the region on which they would most like to have an overweight stance.

Read Complete Article

CNBC Squawkbox Europe

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

This is the trend since the July low one year ago. This move down has shown three thrusts down or the classic Elliott wave configuration for a low. The retracements or rallies have been large during this downtrend indicating the pattern of trend has not been strong even though it has dropped over 15%. When retracements are large false breaks are possible. Fast trends and trend reversals come from “false breaks” or breaks to new highs or lows above or below “OBVIOUS” resistance or support that fail to follow through. In this instance the rally has moved well above the previous swing low and that is bullish. The low was a 1/8 extension down as show last report and that is the normal price for a “false break” low. The normal counter trend in a fast trend is one to four day and this has rallied 3 days with the last day a smaller range indicating some resistance. Exceeding the fourth day is critical. The calculated resistance at 1/3 to 3/8 of the range down is 1080 to 1090 and that is important. Exceeding 4 days of rally will indicate a low is in place and a selloff should produce a higher low. There is a turning point on the 13th and a higher low around the 24th would be bullish. There are still only four alternatives: a 30 or 45 day fast run to a secondary high around 1180 followed by a bear trend; a struggling move up to 1247 for a top in September or October followed by a two year bear trend. A struggling movement that stays inside the last range down creating a distribution pattern with 3 lower highs. Or a new low to around 950 followed by a 6 month rally and then a bear trend.

LET’S LOOK AT GOLD

Two weeks ago we forecast a top in gold between the 28th June and 3rd July and that high occurred on the 28th. We also indicated it would not be any higher in price since the price targets had been hit.

The objectives for a decline are 1122 at ¼ major range which keeps the uptrend in a strong position for another rally so there needs to be caution with that support. Then 1/3 to 3/8 at 1075 though 1051 as the ultimate objective. The only problem with my forecast is the last low was only 3/8 retracement of the last leg and that small retracement does keep the last leg up intact. But I expect that to be broken and test 1157, bounce to around 1183 and resume the downtrend. But it must break this current support which I didn’t believe would stop the move down. Timing dates are July 17, August 4th for a possible trend completion and August 16th.

Source:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/17427/cnbc-squawkbox-europe

Global investor confidence rises but North Americans remain pessimistic

Global investor confidence has risen by 1.3 points in June to 89.7. European (up 5.4 points) and Asian (up 1.7 points) confidence rose in June, according to the State Street Investor Confidence Index.

North Americans continued to be pessimistic, with confidence levels falling by 6.3 points to 92.2 compared with May’s 98.5

Question marks over the state of the US job market and overall US aggregate demand may have slowed the pace of economic recovery, according to Harvard University professor Ken Froot who together with Paul O’Connell from State Street Associates created the index.

There is “some evidence of stabilisation in risk appetite outside North America,” added O’Connell.

“A look at the underlying data confirms the strongest regional flows are into emerging markets, with the exception of emerging Eastern Europe,” he noted.

Globally, investor confidence has been slowly rising October 2008, after it hit its all time low after the collapse Lehman. Following a slight decrease in April and May 2010, the global increases give an optimistic tinge to the overall sentiment.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analysing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index gives a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite, the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the high the risk appetite or confidence.

The Index shows the sentiment of institutional investors as it is based on actual trades rather than survey data.

Source: http://www.hedgefundsreview.com/hedge-funds-review/news/1720034/global-investor-confidence-rises-north-americans-remain-pessimistic

The great Berkshire Hathaway index run-up

Now that Berkshire’s Class B shares have joined the Russell 1000, portfolio managers who paid a pretty penny can breathe easy again.

The runup this year in Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B stock (BRKB) is a good reminder of the power of an old kind of index arbitrage: buy high and sell higher, when the index-fund managers get in.

Usually, when fund managers engage in index arbitrage, they’re weighing the value of an index’s different stocks against each other, choosing the leaders and the laggards. But this year, there has been an easier strategy: cleverer hedge-fund managers or short-term investors just lie in wait until the announcement that a big stock will be added to an index; after the announcement, they buy up tons of the stock, driving up the price for the poor index-fund portfolio managers who are required to hold all the stocks in the index – so they pay exorbitant prices to own the shares.

Exhibit A: Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B stock has been zooming up for the past few days, most recently with a nearly 4% jump on Friday to close at $81.90. The reason: As of this morning’s open, Berkshire Hathaway has been added to the Russell 1000 Index. Berkshire is a giant, so it immediately ranked among the top 10 companies on the index, by size. Berkshire’s Class B stock alone will make up 1.1% of the Russell 1000 index. According to Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin, 17.6% of the Russell 1000 holdings are now in financials, a full percentage point higher than they were before Berkshire joined.

The big jump in Berkshire’s Class B might cause some Russell 1000-following index managers to groan, but it’s probably a big relief to one group of investors: the portfolio managers who bought Berkshire’s class B stock at pretty rich prices after February 12, when it was added to the S&P 500 index. For those investors, who paid roughly $76 a share and up, things looked dark for a while in early June, when the stock dropped to $70 a share. Then, like Christmas in June, there was the announcement mid-month that Berkshire would join the Russell 1000, and all of a sudden the S&P 500 index-followers could breathe easy that the stock was worth something again. Overall, it’s hardly been a bad play: Over the course of seven months, Berkshire’s Class B stock jumped from around $65 a share in late January, around the time the stock took a 50-to-1 stock split, to $81.90 as of Friday’s close.

Of course, none of this could have happened until Berkshire’s leader, Warren Buffett, chose to compromise on his opposition to short-term investing. Buffett always liked to keep his company’s stock an exclusive playground for long-term holders — witness the Class A shares (BRKA) trading at $122,300 each these days — but the 50-to-1 stock split in Class B stock was reportedly spurred by Buffett’s need to find a wider universe of investors to help finance Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad. The stock split dropped the price of Class B shares from $3,275 each to more like $65 each.

The enormous growth in the trading volume of Berkshire’s Class B shares shows the success of Buffett’s populist move. Before the S&P 500 move, Berkshire’s Class B traded at around 5.5 million shares a day; now, it’s more like 10.18 million shares a day.

These boosts are temporary, of course; as of Monday morning, Berkshire’s Class B already started to pull back, dropping 1% in early morning trading to around $81 a share. Of course, if any of those Russell 1000 index managers find that the Berkshire Class B stock loses even bigger chunks of its pop after the index-buying games are over, they might just have to swallow their hard luck: there aren’t that many more indexes that the stock can list on.

By Heidi N. Moore, contributor – Source: http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/28/the-great-berkshire-hathaway-index-run-up/

17-3-10 ASX Stock Report

ASX 200 4853.2 (+1.17%)

SPI Futures 4854.0 (+1.04%)

1. Commodity prices remained strong for the Asian trading day, crude futures still up. Our market was up 56 points so a good result all up. Best performing sectors where Energy up 2.34% and Info Tech +3.07%. Carsales CRZ $3.04 (+13.87%) who we had come in last week performed well.

• ASX 200 4853.2 (+1.17%)

• SPI Futures 4854.0 (+1.04%)

2. NSL & KRL $0.185 (+8.82%) tipped by AFR with major potential for investment of the domestic junior mining companies.

3. Industrials; FGE $2.65 (+5.58%); AIO $1.92 (+2.95%); BLY $0.32 (+1.59%); DOW $7.60 (+1.6%); DCG $1.60 (+0.31%); we are still positive the sector which is highly correlated with resource sector demand.

4. Corporate Express CXP $5.71 (+24.13%) has received an offer for the entire business from US company Staples Inc. The cash offer is for $5.60 per share for ordinary equity holders and a 12.5cent dividend which was announced March 2nd. This values equity for CXP at $1bil. The CXP board has unanimously recommended the offer to shareholders.

5. AWB $0.935 (-11.37%) has downgraded earnings for the full year after factoring in a tough grain marketing environment. Profit has been downgraded for FY10 to $85mil-$110mil, down from $115mil-$140mil.

6. Property; we all know the city of Melbourne is the pick of Australian property growth markets. Stock to keep investing in off the back of the residential property market buoyancy FKP $0.76 (+0.66%); CWP $2.52 (+0.8%); DVN $0.285 (+1.79%)

7. Retail; DJS $5.13 (+1.18%) off the back of good reporting for 1h FY10 results, MYR $3.53 (+0.57%) still has inherent leverage to regional expansion with their competitive advantage in attracting common consumers in times of limited disposable income could prove beneficial; PBG $1.32 (+3.13%); HVN $3.74 (-0.8%)

8. Teleco’s; TLS $3.13 (+0.64%); IIN $2.45; BGL $0.15 (+3.45%)

9. TLS there is still opposition between the senate and the Government over the legislation to split our country’s largest telecommunications provider with no real substance in identifying an outcome. Until that happens we would suggest there being a trading opportunity in the stock. The bill that was proposed by the government has had an implementation study written up over it, which is still yet to be released either to the public or to the senate. Until this study is reviewed the bill may be opposed in the senate. The proposition of creating a National Broadband Network will have significant implication on the infrastructure owned by TLS, however if it is overturned in the senate this could prove TLS be more valuable.

Overseas Headlines:

1. Interest rates in the US will remain at very low levels for some time to come according to the Federal Reserve Bank. The reduced participation rate, slowing capacity utilisation will discourage investment in the country and it is most likely that this will impact on their dollar as we saw this morning. A similar situation will transpire in the Euro Zone. For equity markets and the cost of debt this may be encouraging signs, but just how long the US can sustain their economy without changing rates is the question. Inevitably one would think that inflation would become a key concern and that rates would have to tend to more realistic levels in the mid to long-term.

2. Crude Oil prices rose this morning in anticipation of an outcome on supply ambitions post OPEC ministers meeting today in Vienna . With inventories rising it may be expected that OPEC who distribute 40% of the world’s oil will decide to continue cutting their output of barrels as it has since 2008.

3. Thai citizens are displaying some very unique rituals to overturn their existing government, creating political unrest.

Data Tomorrow:

1. HK:

• U/E survey 4.8% vs. prior 4.9%

2. Japan:

• Interest Rates on hold

3. UK

• Major banks mortgage approvals February survey 54K vs. prior 49K

• Public sector borrowing February survey 14bil vs. prior 4.3bil

• Money supply MoM February survey 0.7% vs. prior 0.4%

• Money Supply YoY February survey 4.3% vs. prior 4.9%

4. EU:

• Italy trade balance January survey -€1650 vs. prior -€123.0mil

• Netherlands U/E February survey 5.7% vs. prior 5.6%

5. US:

• CPI MoM February survey 0.1% vs. prior 0.2%

• CPI YoY February survey 2.3% vs. prior 2.6%

• Jobless Claims March 14 survey 455K vs. prior 462K

• Continuing claims March 7 survey 4522K vs. prior 4558K

• Current Account (exports less imports) Balance 4Q survey $US119.3bil vs. prior $US108.0bil

Forex Trading – Technical Analysis for Beginners

Some Forex traders say the best indicator is price. Therefore many traders use chart patterns with the help of technical indicators trying to predict the price movement. This approach is quite different from the fundamental analysis when price is predicted based on economic news and social events.

Studying price movement with Forex technical analysis involves charts. The theory of it is that if you look at the historical records of how prices have moved in the past, you can identify tendencies and trends which will mean that you can predict how the prices will move in the future. Then as soon as you spot an emerging pattern that fits your system, you have a trading opportunity.

There are three types of Forex charts:

- The line chart is the first one

The name of line chart tells it all. It is a line connecting the closing prices. Ups and downs of that line show the movement of the currency pair. Unfortunately this type of price does not show you any information on price behavior within the time period. You can see only the close price.

- Second chart type is called bar chart

A bar chart will show a series of vertical lines or bars. The top of the line represents the highest price during that time period. The bottom of the line represents the low. A short horizontal bar on the left side indicates the opening price and a short horizontal bar on the right side indicates the closing price.

That’s why the bar charts also called OHLC charts. It stands for open, high, low and close.

- Third type of charts is candlestick chart

Forex candlestick charts show all of the same information as a bar chart, but presented in a different way which most people find easier to read at a glance.

Like bar chart candlestick shows the price movement in vertical direction. The same way as for bar the top of the candlestick is the high for the period and the bottom of the candlestick is the low of the price for the period. However the major difference is the body. Different color of the candlestick body represents the different tendency of the price withing the given period. The common colors are red for falling price and green for rising. However different charts may use different colors.

The reason many traders prefer candlestick charts is that it can be read and interpreted easily. Trend and turning points are clearly seen due to color difference.

Successful traders always take advantage of emerging trend. You probably heard the famous expression ‘Trend is your friend’. Therefore the ability to recognize the forming trend is of the major importance of trader’s success. Candlestick chart is a great tool in helping to develop this skill.

Source: Albert Schmidt

Types of Traders

There are many different types of traders out there, before entering the market for yourself, you may want to consider what type of trading you would be comfortable with. The different types of traders are:

1. Trend Traders

These traders attempt to buy a stock that is going up and hold onto it until it starts going down. The best part about this strategy is that it takes a relatively short amount of time to manage it. Trend traders could be in a stock for days or years, depending on how well the stock is doing, the idea here is, why kill a good thing.

2. Swing and Day Traders

Both swing and day traders attempt to catch the short movements in the stock market. It involves being much more active in your account and having to pay closer attention to patterns and other short term indicators. The great thing about these strategies is that you make a profit or loss fast and it can add up over time.

3. Option Trading

Similar to swing trading option trading attempts to make money from the stock market in a short term time period. The only difference is that with options you have the potential to explode your profits. A relatively small move in the price of the stock could mean a huge move in the option.

4. Option Seller

Option sellers on the other hand attempt to sell options that they believe will become worthless over time. This way they collect the premium up front and when the option hopefully expires in the future they are in no obligation to do anything. Option sellers do not attempt to hit the huge home runs, but try to make a good return over time by compound interest. These are the most popular ways to trade stocks. All traders will have to find out which strategy fits them the best.

Tips For Day Trading Online

Day trading signifies buying and selling stock within the market day. The market day is the time period between the opening and closure of markets. Traders find this activity extremely profitable because of the financial leverage and rapid returns that accompany day trading.

Online day trading requires good dependable equipment. A good computer for trading, with a memory capacity of 1024mb RAM is required. Experts are divided about the number of monitors required for this activity. Some believe that 2 -3 monitors are needed for effective online transactions while others believe a single large size monitor is sufficient. A high speed broadband internet connection is required for speedy inflow of real time quotes and charts. A good UPS or unlimited power supply is also required for effective trading at the computer. Direct access software will help the trader to place orders and get the orders executed faster.Online day trading requires a good broker who gives instant information.

The online platform of the broker should be dependable and all services should be instantly accessible. Access to the account of the trader should be easy and the response should be quick and efficient. The trader should be able to place orders and get results before the market closes. The website of the broker should be easy to use and constant updates should be available to the trader. The broker should execute orders instantly with small margins and low spreads. All transactions should be secure online transactions that are encrypted and password protected.

Moving Average Trading Secrets

One of the most popular technical analysis indicators is the simple moving average also known as SMA, if you learn how to use these correctly they can be a very useful tool to help you to make good trading decisions.

The 50 simple moving average, or 50 SMA, is simply the sum of the last 50 values for each period, divided by 50, this is a moving window, as time moves on so does the average. Notice that I used the word period because this indicator works on any time period in exactly the same way.

It can be used on monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30 minutes, 15 minute and on whatever time period you want to monitor and trade. Although the SMA is the most commonly used there is also the exponential moving average or EMA. This is a weighted version of the formula using the mathematical exponent function to give more weight to the more recent values, this has the effect of making it a slightly faster average that many traders prefer.

The truth is that it probably does not matter if you used the SMA or the EMA, what does matter however is that you use one or the other and then be very consistent with it. Do not switch between them, it is more important that you trust your chosen indicator then a slight difference in its value.

The SMA is often used to determine what the trend of the stock is, depending on the value used it could be a short term, medium term or long term trend. An important point to note is that moving averages are most useful when the stock is trending, if the moving average is flat, i.e. horizontal on your chart it can become very choppy, this is a good time to stay out of the market.

The general rule is that if the current price is above the SMA the trend is up, if below the trend is down. This is very important to understand because it forms the basics of trend trading and trading with the trend.

For the short term trend many traders like using a 5-8 SMA or EMA, here is a trading secret, never trade again the direction of the short term tend, actually this is really just common sense when you think about it.

Moving averages can often act as support or resistance, many traders use the 15, 21 or 30 SMA for this purpose.

There are a number of other very important moving averages that you need to know about, these are the 50, 100 and 200 SMA, and this mainly applies to the daily and weekly charts. A lot of big players in the markets, the mutual funds, investment banks etc use the 50 and 200 SMA as support and resistance, if they decide to buy or sell based on these you need to follow suite, the 100 to a lesser extent.

8 Trading Habits From Warren Buffett

Wisdom From Warren Buffett

1. Investing With Knowledge

Don’t do anything until you know what you are doing. – Jimmy Rogers

Do

The knowledge in this context doesn’t mean you need an educational degree in finance and economics to invest in the markets. It means learning about the potential markets you are interested to invest in. Knowing and understand them before you put money into the markets.

Don’t

Doesn’t realise that a deep understanding of what he is doing is an essential prerequisite to success. Rarely realizes that profitable opportunities exist within his own area of expertise.

2. Predefined Trading Plan

The secret is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible. – Ed Seykota

Do

Has developed his own investment philosophy which is suited to his own personalities and objectives. As a result, no two investors in the market trade in the same manner.

Don’t

Has no plan, uses other people’s system without own’s research. Do not have his own investment philosophy. What it happen is that you see the person change from one systems to another, and failing to understand the importance of writing a plan.

3. Researched And Tested Strategy

If I’m interested company, I’ll buy 100 shares of all its competitors to get their annual reports. – Warren Buffett

Do

Developed and tested one’s strategy for the pass 5 to 10 years to determine the viability of the systems. Characteristics of the systems are also understood before one put real money into investment strategy.

Don’t

Has no system. Or has adopted someone’s else’s without testing and adapting it to his own personality. (When such a system doesn’t work, he adopts another one blindly. Which doesn’t work for him either.)

4. Capital Preservation

If you don’t bet, you can’t win. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet. – Larry Hite

Do

First priority is to ensure your investment equity can survive and invest for another day. The market will always be there as long as your investment equity is available. If you protect your money and make it the number one priority in investment, you can survive long enough in the market to profit from the opportunities.

Don’t

Investment aim is “to make a lot of money.” As a result, failed to keep them.

5. Follow His Investment Plan

For me, it’s important to be loyal to my system. When I’m not… I’ve made a mistake. – Gil Bake

Do

Stick to his rules with discipline as long as its within the boundaries stated in his system plan. The fact is most investments do not win all the time. As investors, we need to be aware that there is drawdown period for any investment strategy.

Don’t

Lack of discipline to follow the rules as layout in the trading plan. (When such a system doesn’t work, he adopts another one. Which doesn’t work for him either.)

6. Learnt From Mistakes

One learns the most from mistakes, not successes. – Paul Tudor Jones

Do

Always treats mistakes as opportunities to improve oneself and never commit the same mistake again. An investor will never stop learning.

Don’t

Blame, justify and give excuses about the systems, people or circumstances that are at fault. While overlooking that he can improve his trading results if he identified them as mistakes and learnt from them.

7. Almost Never Talks to Anyone About What He is Doing

My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror. – Warren Buffett

Do

Not concern about what he’s doing. Not interested or concerned with what others think about his investment decisions.

Don’t

Always asking for people’s opinions and finding the latest ‘Hot Tip’

8. Be a Risk Averse Investors

Do

Believe that risk can be managed, and always be prepared to beat a hasty retreat.

Don’t

Thinks that big profits can only be made by taking big risks.

Candlestick Charting Explained

Unless you understand Candlestick charting, you cant trade and invest effectively in securities or currencies. It is essential that you understand Candlestick charting. Many options exist for the charting of currencies and securities now with the advancement of technology. There are several types of charts easily available on the charting software. The four main charting methods are: 1) Candlestick charts, 2) Line Charts, 3) Point and Figure Charts and 4) Bar Charts.

For a number of reasons, the three charting methods pale in comparison with the candlestick charting. Candlestick charting has unique and inherent advantages over the other charts. You can understand what’s going on with the price of a currency pair with a simple glance on the candlestick charts. One of the best features of candlestick charting is its visual appeal and readability.

You can get a sense of how the price is trending with the candlestick charts. You can easily spot the opening and closing price of a currency pair on a candlestick charts. You can also tell whether the buyers or sellers have dominated a given day. These price levels can be an important area of support and resistance for a given day.

Why should traders choose candlestick charts over other types of charts when analysing price action of currency markets? Candlestick charts feature specific patterns that you can identify and use to decide when its best time to buy, sell or wait on a trade.

Currency traders or for that matter other traders too, need easy to read charts that allow them to make quick decisions and efficiently analyse price patterns in the markets. Candlestick charting offers those benefits and many more. The need for a consistent and dynamic charting method is more important than ever. Trading is becoming more and more complex. The following four pieces of information are combined to make a candlestick:

Price on the Open: The price at which a particular currency pair opens on a given period is the first piece of information used to create a candlestick.

High Price: The top of the candlesticks wick corresponds to the highest price reached during that given period.

Low Price: The bottom of the candlesticks wick corresponds to the lowest price that a currency pair reaches during a period.

Closing Price: The closing price of the currency pair at the end of a given period is the last piece of information used to create a candlestick. Depending on the price action, the closing price can be the top edge of the candles body if the price action is bullish. It can be the bottom edge of the candles body if the price action is bearish.

Candlesticks that represent bearish price action appear black. Candlesticks that represent bullish price action appear white on the chart. By looking at the candlestick charts than you can by looking at another type of charting tool, you can gain far more insight into a periods trading.

You can tell right away that the up day has a white candle. Similarly the down day has a black candle. That simple difference alone clearly reveals the nature of price action that took place during that period and can be very helpful to you.

Candlestick charts quickly clue you on the type of buying and selling that’s been going on during a given period. Candlestick charting also tell you where it may occur again. In many cases, the buyers continue to buy and sellers continue to sell during subsequent periods.

Source: Ahmad Hassam

Trading Psychology and Discipline

There are many characteristics and skills required by traders in order for them to be successful in the financial markets. The ability to understand the inner workings of a company, its fundamentals and the ability to determine the direction of the trend are a few of the key traits needed, but none of these is as important as the ability to contain emotions and maintain discipline.

Trading Psychology

The psychological aspect of trading is extremely important, and the reason for that is fairly simple. A trader is often darting in and out of stocks on short notice, and is forced to make quick decisions. To accomplish this, they need a certain presence of mind. They also, by extension, need discipline, so that they stick with previously established trading plans and know when to book profits and losses. Emotions simply can’t get in the way.

Understanding Fear

When a trader’s screen is pulsating red (a sign that stocks are down) and bad news comes about a certain stock or the general market, it’s not uncommon for the trader to get scared. When this happens, they may overreact and feel compelled to liquidate their holdings and go to cash or to refrain from taking any risks. Now, if they do that they may avoid certain losses – but they also will miss out on the gains.

Traders need to understand what fear is – simply a natural reaction to what they perceive as a threat (in this case perhaps to their profit or money-making potential). Quantifying the fear might help. Or that they may be able to better deal with fear by pondering what they are afraid of, and why they are afraid of it.

Also, by pondering this issue ahead of time and knowing how they may instinctively react to or perceive certain things, a trader can hope to isolate and identify those feelings during a trading session, and then try to focus on moving past the emotion. Of course this may not be easy, and may take practice, but it’s necessary to the health of an investor’s portfolio.

Greed Is Your Worst Enemy

There’s an old saying on Wall Street that “pigs get slaughtered”. These little pigs want more and more. This greed in investors causes them to hang on to winning positions too long, trying to get every last tick. This trait can be devastating to returns because the trader is always running the risk of getting whipsawed or blown out of a position.

Greed is not easy to overcome. That’s because within many of us there seems to be an instinct to always try to do better, to try to get just a little more. A trader should recognize this instinct if it is present, and develop trade plans based upon rational business decisions, not on what amounts to an emotional whim or potentially harmful instinct.

The Importance Of Trading Rules

To get their heads in the right place before they feel the emotional or psychological crunch, investors can look at creating trading rules ahead of time. Traders can establish limits where they lay out guidelines based on their risk-reward relationship for when they will exit a trade – regardless of emotions. For example, if a stock is trading at $10/share, the trader might choose to get out at $10.25, or at $9.75 to put a stop loss or stop limit in and bail.

Of course, establishing price targets might not be the only rule. For example, the trader might say if certain news, such as specific positive or negative earnings or macroeconomic news, comes out, then he or she will buy (or sell) a security. Also, if it becomes apparent that a large buyer or seller enters the market, the trader might want to get out.

Traders might also consider setting limits on the amount they win or lose in a day. In other words, if they reap an $X profit, they’re done for the day, or if they lose $Y they fold up their tent and go home. This works for investors because sometimes it is better to just “go on take the money and run,” like the old Steve Miller song suggests even when those two birds in the tree look better than the one in your hand.

Creating A Trading Plan

Traders should try to learn about their area of interest as much as possible. For example, if the trader deals heavily and is interested in telecommunications stocks, it makes sense for him or her to become knowledgeable about that business. Similarly, if he or she trades heavily in energy stocks, it’s fairly logical to want to become well versed in that arena.

To do this, start by formulating a plan to educate yourself. If possible, go to trading seminars and attend sell-side conferences. Also, it makes sense to plan out and devote as much time as possible to the research process. That means studying charts, speaking with management (if applicable), reading trade journals or doing other background work (such as macroeconomic analysis or industry analysis) so that when the trading session starts the trader is up to speed. A wealth of knowledge could help the trader overcome fear issues in itself, so it’s a handy tool.

In addition, it’s important that the trader consider experimenting with new things from time to time. For example, consider using options to mitigate risk, or set stop losses at a different place. One of the best ways a trader can learn is by experimenting – within reason. This experience may also help reduce emotional influences.

Finally, traders should periodically review and assess their performance. This means not only should they review their returns and their individual positions, but also how they prepared for a trading session, how up-to-date they are on the markets and how they’re progressing in terms of ongoing education, among other things. This periodic assessment can help the trader correct mistakes, which may help enhance their overall returns. It may also help them to maintain the right mindset and help them to be psychologically prepared to do business.

Bottom Line

It’s often important for a trader to be able to read a chart and have the right technology so that their trades get executed, but there is often a psychological component to trading that shouldn’t be overlooked. Setting trading rules, building a trading plan, doing research and getting experience are all simple steps that can help a trader overcome these little mind matters.

Three Bad Reasons for Pursuing Trading as a Career

When I talk with traders who are having problems, I often find that the root problem is that they have pursued work in the financial markets for the wrong reasons. Here are three of the most common problematic reasons that draw people to trading:

1) The Thrill of Gain – While this often masquerades as a passion for markets, a little observation reveals that these traders have little interest either in markets that they don’t trade or in markets while they are not trading. The interest in market action often reveals addictive patterns, in which the roller coaster rides of gains and losses become more valued than the achievement of a smooth, upward sloping equity curve. This leads to overtrading and painful emotional ups and downs.

2) The Need for Independence – These traders are drawn to markets because they don’t want to have to answer to someone else in a structured job. The problem with this pattern is that the very need for independence that leads people away from structured careers also leads them away from the kind of structured practice and preparation that are necessary for trading success. Just as these traders don’t want to be tethered to a 9-to-5 career, they rebel against being tethered to markets. This shows up as poor discipline, poor preparation, and difficulty sustaining even modest efforts at performance development (such as keeping daily journals).

3) The Need to Make It Big – Many traders try to use performance in the markets, not as an expression of their competence, but as a desperate attempt to prove it. They don’t feel successful in other endeavours and are using markets to try to be a success in life. As a result, most of their self-esteem eggs are in the trading basket. That becomes threatening and stressful when inevitable trading slumps occur. Worse still, such traders often feel a need to make more and more to fill the hole of lacking self worth, eventually leading them to take too much risk and blow up.

What is the common theme among the three groups of traders? They are using trading to act out (and try to resolve) personal issues that are separate from risk/reward and opportunity in markets. Their needs lead them to place trades more for psychological reasons than logical ones.

Source: Brett Steenbarger

Investing vs.Trading What’s The Difference?

There is a question which is sometimes asked by those new to the financial markets, and even occasionally debated by experienced participants. That question is how one differentiates between trading and investing. Because both trading and investing – when one considers them from the perspective of the financial markets – are performed in very similar fashions, they are often thought of as interchangeable actions.

Both trading and investing, after all, are at the most simple of levels application of capital in the pursuit of profits. If I buy XYZ stock I expect to either see the price appreciate or earn dividends perhaps both.

What separates trading from investing, however, is that generally in trading one has an exit expectation. This might be in the form of a price target or in terms of how long the position will be held. Either way, the trade is seen to have a finite life. Investing, on the other hand, is more open-ended. An investor will buy a company’s stock with no predefined notion of when he or she will sell, if ever.

We can use examples to help demonstrate the difference. Warren Buffet is an investor. He buys companies which he sees as somehow undervalued and holds on to his positions for as long as he continues to like their prospects. He does not think in terms of a price at which he will exit the stock. George Soros is (or at least was while he was still actively running his hedge fund) a trader. His most famous trade was shorting the British Pound when he thought the currency was overvalued and ready to be withdrawn from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The position he took was based on a specific circumstance. Once the Pound was allowed to float freely, and quickly devalued in the market, Soros exited with a handsome profit. That meets the criteria of having a predefined exit, making it a trade, not an investment.

There is another way one can define trading as set against investing, though. It has to do with the manner in which the applied capital is expected to produce a return. In trading the appreciation of capital is the objective. You buy XZY stock at 10 expecting it to go to 15 and thereby produce a capital gain. If dividends or interest are paid out along the way, that is fine, but likely only a minor contribution to the expected profits.

In contrast, investing looks more toward income over time. That makes income production, such as dividends and bond interest payments, the major focal point. Do investors experience capital appreciation? Sure, but unlike in trading, that is not the prime motivation.

With these definitions in mind, consider what many people refer to as their single biggest investment their home. Based our second definition of investing, however, a home is generally not an investment because in most cases is does not produce any income. In fact, it produces considerable expenses in the form of mortgage interest payments, utility bills, and upkeep. If anything, a home is a trade. We buy it and hope for its value to rise over time, increasing our equity. And the fact that many people expect to move in only a few years and sell at that point makes it even more of a trade rather than an investment. (Of course own rental property can certainly be viewed as investing, unless one is flipping it, which would definitely be more trading.)

As noted earlier, for many people trading and investing seem like the same thing. The mechanics of buying and selling are basically the same. Sometimes the analysis one does to make those decisions is identical as well. Its the intention and definition of objectives which separate trading and investing, though.