Byron Wien’s ten Stock Market surprises for 2010

Dead on target at the beginning of the new year, 76-year-old Byron Wien again published his annual list of surprises to expect in 2010. Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services and one of Wall Street’s best known veterans, has been publishing his list of economic, market and political surprises since 1986.

Reviewing Wien’s 2009 list, he was very accurate with the direction of most of his predictions.

He foresaw a second-half recovery in the US economy, and the S&P 500 Index rising to 1,200 (up from 903 at the end of 2008 to 1,115 by December 31, 2009). He also predicted: “The ten-year US Treasury yield climbs to 4% [up from 2.24% to 3.84%]. Later in the year, as the economy shows signs of recovery, economists and investors shift their mood from concern about deflation to worries about inflation. A weak dollar, rapid growth in money supply and record-setting deficits (over $1 trillion) are behind the change.” Spot on.

Wien also expected the gold and oil prices to climb to $1,200 and $80 respectively – a feat accomplised in December.

He believes his ten surprises have at least a 50% chance of occurring at some point during the year. Although this is not a very high probability, his predictions nevertheless make for stimulating reading. His list for 2010 follows below.

1. The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level drops below 9%. Exports, inventory building and technology spending lead the way. Standard and Poor’s 500 operating earnings come in above $80.

2. The Federal Reserve decides the economy is strong enough for them to move away from zero interest rate policy. In a series of successive hikes beginning in the second quarter the Federal funds rate reaches 2% by year-end.

3. Heavy borrowing by the US Treasury and some reluctance by foreign central banks to keep buying notes and bonds drives the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 5.5%. Banks loan more to corporations and individuals and pull away from the carry trade, thereby reducing demand for Treasuries. Obama says, “The suits are finally listening”.

4. In a roller coaster year the Standard and Poor’s 500 rallies to 1,300 in the first half and then runs out of steam and declines to 1,000, ending where it started at 1115.10. Even though the economy is strong and earnings exceed expectations, rising interest rates and full valuations present a problem. Concern about longer term growth and obligations to reduce leverage at both the public and private level unsettle investors.

5. Because it is significantly undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis, the dollar rallies against the yen and the euro. It exceeds 100 on the yen and the euro drops below $1.30 as the long slide of the greenback is interrupted. Longer term prospects remain uncertain.

6. Japan stands out as the best performing major industrialized market in the world as its currency weakens and its exports improve. Investors focus on the attractive valuations of dozens of medium sized companies in a market selling at one quarter of its 1989 high. The Nikkei 225 rises above 12,000.

7. Believing he must be a leader in climate control initiatives, President Obama endorses legislation favorable for nuclear power development. Arguing that going nuclear is essential for the environment, will create jobs and reduce costs, Congress passes bills providing loans and subsidies for new plants, the first since 1979. Coal accounts for about 50% of electrical power generation, and Obama wants to reduce that to 25% by 2020.

8. The improvement in the US economy energizes the Obama administration. The White House undergoes some reorganization and regains its momentum. In the November Congressional election the Democrats only lose 20 seats, much less than expected.

9. When it finally passes, financial service legislation, like the health care bill, proves to be softer on the industry than originally feared. There is greater consumer protection, more transparency, tighter restriction of leverage and increased scrutiny of derivatives, but the regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous. Trading volume and merger activity increases; financial service stocks become exceptional performers in the US market.

10. Civil unrest in Iran reaches a crescendo. Ayatollah Khameini pushes out Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in favor of a more public relations adept leader. Economic improvement becomes the key issue and anti-Israel rhetoric subsides. Talks with the US and Europe begin but the country remains a nuclear threat. Pakistan becomes the hotspot in the region because of the weak government there, anti-American sentiment, active terrorist groups and concerns about the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Source: PR-inside.com

10 Rules for Better Trading

Rule 1: Believe you can win. If other traders can do well in the market, so can you. However, if you don’t have enough courage and confidence in yourself, you will never achieve success. The events over the past year have tested many people in this regard and some now think the game is rigged against them. Nothing could be farther from the truth as opportunities remain. Those who will win in the markets first start by believing they can do it. Then they back up that strong belief with serious hard-work and determination to find their trading edge. However, it starts with you first having faith in yourself.

Rule 2: Don’t be seduced by results. You must stay in the present and focused on executing each trade to the best of your ability. Don’t let yourself think about how much you’re going to win (or lose) in the market or how great of a trader you are or not, but instead focus on what matters most – each and every trade you make. Do that and the results will take care of themselves.

Rule 3: Sulking won’t get you anything. The worst thing you can do for your prospects of winning is to get down when things don’t go well. If you start feeling sorry for yourself or thinking the trading gods are conspiring against you, you’re not focused on the next trade. Good traders readily accept their mistakes and move on to the next trade. They don’t let one bad trade carry onto the next one.

Rule 4: Beat them with patience. Every time you have the urge to make an aggressive trade, go with the more conservative one. You’ll always be OK. The moment you get impatient, bad things happen. In tough markets, stay patient and let others beat themselves.

Rule 5: Ignore unsolicited advice. You’ll have lots of well-meaning friends and experts who want to give you advice. Don’t accept it. In fact, stop them before they can say a word. Their comments will creep into your mind when you are trading and conflict with your own strategy. If you’ve worked on your game, commit to the plan and stay confident with it.

Rule 6: Embrace your personality. The key is to find what works best for you. There are many approaches out there, but there is only one trading approach that will utilize your best skills and talent to create and sustain an edge. The worst mistake you can make is to simply embrace a strategy of someone else that doesn’t match your own personality and strengths.

Rule 7: Have a routine to lean on. Every trader should follow a mental routine on every trade. It keeps you focused on what you have to do, and when the pressure is on, it helps you manage your nerves. You may not have control over the market, but you have control on how you trade the market. Having a routine will inject consistency that will keep you calm under pressure.

Rule 8: Find peace in the market. The market has to be your sanctuary, the thing you love, and you can’t be afraid of making mistakes. Yes, you’ll experience both good and bad times, but you must enjoy and revel in the challenge.

Rule 9: Test yourself. Don’t look for easy trades and setups at all times. Test yourself by working hard trades and difficult markets in order to test and improve your skills. For example, if you’re uncomfortable with trading options, spend a month just trading options. If you’re uncomfortable with shorting stocks, spend a month shorting stocks. We only get better if we constantly test what we think is most difficult.

Rule 10: Find someone who believes in you. Having confidence in yourself is important, but it helps to have someone who believes in you, too, whether it’s a spouse, a friend, a teacher, or a mentor. No man’s success can be entirely attributed to his own actions. You must surround yourself with people who believe in you at all times.

This is a powerful set of trading rules that will serve you well.

Source: Damien Hoffman

The Importance of Listening to Yourself when Trading

A fundamental reality underlying trading psychology is that we know, more than we think we know. Much of what we know is a felt, gut hunch–not a set of explicitly formed ideas. Those internal cues are lost when we are swamped by emotions from negative learning experiences. It takes an unattached mind–a mind free from worries, fears, internal demands–to keep tuned to our gut. In quieting body and mind, we gain access to the felt knowledge we possess, but may not realize we possess. That is why so many of the brief therapy techniques that I teach to traders –what I call therapy for the mentally well– are designed to regain control of body and mind. It is not by accident that half of the chapters in my book on self-coaching are devoted to these techniques.

Loss of discipline is the most common concern of traders who seek psychological assistance. But equally important, if not as recognized, is the related tendency to not listen to oneself. So many times, we *know* what we should be doing and do not act. Sometimes out of second-guessing ourselves, sometimes out of fear, sometimes out of listening to others rather than ourselves. We know–and at some level we even know we know–but we don’t listen to that knowledge. This creates a double consequence: a missed opportunity, but also a loss of confidence. It is difficult to sustain confidence in our judgment if we routinely engage in cognitive self-betrayal.

After the hard work of analysis is done–we’ve performed the research, read the news reports, observed the charts, talked to colleagues–it remains for the mind’s implicit mode to perform the synthesis. Without the data that come from long hours of observation, the mind has nothing to synthesize: we need to first see many patterns before we can recognize those patterns in real time. But if we do not listen to ourselves–if we remain stuck in analysis, or if we entertain so much mental noise that we cannot hear our syntheses–the many hours of learning are lost.

Many gurus would have you listen to them for guidance. The only real wisdom, however, comes from listening to yourself.

Source: Brett Steenbarger

The Psychology of Trading

Perhaps the most critical characteristic shared by successful investors and traders is their psychological approach to the market. All forms of financial investments have foundational knowledge that is essential to success in that market. I am not suggesting that you can simply think the right way and trade stocks, commodities or any other market successfully. But you could be the world’s foremost expert on the commodities market and still not be able to translate that knowledge into monetary success.

Two emotions fear and greed can be lethal to your financial success. Developing an unemotional, systematic approach to your trading and investments is crucial for success. The following ideas will help you control your emotions and improve your trading results.

Develop a Trading System

Many people approach the market in a very unsystematic fashion. One day they are buying blue chip stocks that pay dividends; the next day they are playing tips from their nephews on biotechnology start-ups. Develop a system that suits your personal style, risk tolerance, knowledge level, and time available to devote to this activity. Decide what market you will trade and exactly how you will trade. Simply saying I will buy and sell stocks is not a trading system. Write down your rules. For example, for a stock investor, what criteria will stocks meet for your consideration? At what price will you buy? Will you short stocks? Where will you set your stop loss price? How much will you invest in any single position? How much will you diversify among industry sectors? Will you rotate in and out of sectors as they fall out of favor with the markets? Wherever possible, back test your rules and ensure your system has a reasonable expectation of profitability.

Have a Written Plan for Every Trade

Before you buy that stock or option spread or other investment, you must make some critical decisions. Write down your answers to the following questions: Why do I think this is a good idea? At what price will I admit my idea is not working and close the trade? If appropriate for this trade, at what price will I make some adjustments to the position? At what price will I take my profits? The answers to these questions and others constitute your trading plan. Be sure you have a plan before you establish the trade.

Follow Your Plan

This may be the hardest aspect of trading you must master. Once you have your plan, you must have the discipline to follow the plan unemotionally. Don’t allow yourself to rationalize how the stock is going to rebound or allow your ego to refuse to admit the mistake. When the stock price dips below your stop loss price, close the position.

Don’t hope. Don’t rationalize. Follow your plan.

Evaluate Your Results

Develop a routine of reviewing your trading results periodically. When I review my trades each month, I make an important distinction between my “losing trades” and my “bad trades”. Bad trades result when I break my own rules for entering the trade or lack the discipline to follow the plan. Losing trades are those where I followed all of my rules, but the trade just didn’t work out as planned. These losses are simply a “cost of doing business”. It is critical to treat your investing as a business, not a hobby. In any business, there are necessary expenses to keep the business open. Trading losses are an expected, necessary part of any investment activity. Developing a trading system and following the individual trade plans ensure that your profitable trades will outweigh your losses.

This Isn’t Gambling

A common misperception holds that investing is akin to gambling. In fact, when you closely analyze the actual trades of many investors, they are indeed gamblers. They are following tips and hunches, investing large amounts on expected turnarounds, anticipating mergers, betting on start-ups, and so on. But consider the business of gambling – not the gambler, but the casino. The casino establishes a game where the casino holds a statistical edge; depending on the game, that edge may be rather small, of the order of 1-2%. The casino owner knows that he may have a big winner today at one of the blackjack tables, but that doesn’t concern him because he knows he has an edge. When averaged over all of the different players and games, and over the long term, the casino will come out ahead.

When you work hard to develop the knowledge of the market you are trading, develop a trading system, have a written plan for every trade, follow your plan with great discipline, and learn from your mistakes, you have positioned yourself as the casino owner, not one of the customers.

Top Three Mistakes New Traders Must Avoid

1) Not having a defined trading strategy. To consistently make money in the markets, a trader must have an edge that can be repeatedly exploited. Many traders don’t understand what this really means. Instead, they hop around from one trade to the next relying solely on intuition. While a trader can have periods of success trading without a plan, in the long run it would be extremely difficult to maintain any level of success without a repeatable core strategy.

The most common mistake is there are many traders who have a perfectly acceptable strategy, but consistently find themselves straying from it in order to chase what is hot in the markets. It’s not enough to have a strategy — a trader must refrain from getting away from it when tempted by greed. There are thousands of trading strategies that will work consistently, but all of them will fail without the discipline to stick to them. Trading is more about discipline and consistency, and less about fancy trading systems. A trader will usually be successful so long as they have a method to cut their losses quickly and maximize their profits on winning trades.

2) Ignorance of time frame. This mistake can probably be rolled up into Mistake #1, but is important enough to mention on its own. Knowing your time frame goes beyond what time frame charts you look at for trading. The first thing a trader needs to know is what they are trying to accomplish with a trade. While making money is the obvious answer, I’m talking about determining what move a trader is trying to capture. Often, a trader focuses his entire attention on getting into a trade. He or she has little regard for how they will get out of the trade. This usually leads to wavering back and forth on when to exit. Traders need to know how long they will be in a trade and what they are trying to accomplish. Otherwise, the markets dictate how they will exit. Traders need to define what part of a trend they are trying to capture, then act accordingly. While the signals don’t have to be defined to the point of being mechanical, traders should have a clear and definite direction they are taking in a trade.

There are several different trading styles out there — from scalping a tick chart, to position trading off weekly charts. For instance, if you are trading to capture a several day trend, then your target and stop loss should complement that objective. I often see traders say they are trying to capture a multi-day move. They leave an open-ended target, then panic on an intraday pullback. While there is nothing wrong with leaving an open-ended target, traders need to be willing to suffer through a pullback if they are trying to let a trend run its course.

Too often, I see traders entering trades with no real ultimate target and no clear understanding of how to identify when they are wrong in the trade. Stop losses are intimately tied to targets, yet this is an area which confuses many traders. Many traders also mix up their time frames once they are in a trade. Basically, if you’re going to scalp, then scalp and scale or get out on strength. Don’t worry about missing a continuation move that falls out of your time frame. First of all, this wasn’t your planned trade. Second, as humans we tend to have a selective memory. We tend to discard the myriad of times when holding would have been unsuccessful. If you are a trend follower position trading, it makes more sense to trad without a target and keep a very loose trailing stop. Otherwise you will not allow the trend to unfold. Many traders don’t realize their objective, then set incompatible exit orders. While traders don’t need to lock themselves down to a specific time frame, every trade setup in their arsenal should attempt to capture a well defined movement.

3) Thinking about what is supposed to happen instead of focusing on what is happening. Recently, I’ve seen traders fighting the tape on the entire rally off the March lows. I’ve seen very smart individuals going to cash because they can’t see how this rally can be for real with the economic picture so bleak. Many traders are crying foul, saying the government is manipulating this or that, fudging employment data, economic reports, etc. I don’t know if any if that is true, and I don’t really care. I’m not a naïve person. I understand there is a certain amount of manipulation and unfair trading practices that exist. However, I also believe that this behaviour is prevalent in any industry/activity where large amounts of money is involved. Greed is one of the most powerful emotions we have as humans — probably rooted deeply in our survival instincts. There will always be corruption and manipulation in the financial markets. However, this should not stand in the way of any trader stepping in and making money. It’s okay to feel however you want, but in the markets only price pays. The old Jesse Livermore quote says it perfectly: “There is only one side to the stock market; not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”

Traders should learn to focus on what is occurring in the markets and try to remain objective. While there is nothing wrong with using your intuition and intelligence to uncover possible themes or trading scenarios, traders should also remain objective and let the markets either agree or disagree with their thesis. It makes no sense to throw up your hands and let the markets run you over because they disagree with your beliefs.

In summary, the cure for most trading mistakes is to have a plan for dealing with whatever the markets throw your way. Once you have a plan you will not react to the markets. Instead you will proactively trade a well thought out plan.

Source:Joey Fundora

Top Three Mistakes New Traders Must Avoid

1) Not Selling Fast When You Are Wrong.

What I can lose on a given trade is always more important to me than what I can make. Most new traders will make a purchase or initiate a short position, but when the trade turns against them, they immediately forget why they bought or shorted the stock. As a result, they will let “hope” take over as their new strategy. Hope is not a strategy! Take your medicine and accept defeat when you are on the wrong side of a trade. Great traders have tough skin and move on.

The solution for this problem is to use stops. I always use stops when I trade. The percentage you are willing to lose will be a direct by product of your own risk tolerance — but use them always. I use approximately a 2% stop on all my trades (sometimes less).

2) Using Multiple Approaches or Strategies. Many new traders think they have a strategy … until they don’t. They feel they are comfortable with an approach, but at the first sign of failure they stray. Thus, they become aimless and reckless. Before they know it they are trading rumours, chasing stocks, and ultimately blowing up their account (before they have any real success at all).

New traders will “over trade” or do what I call “revenge” trading right after a loser. Revenge doesn’t work in the market and the only person that benefits from over trading is your broker. I have one strategy I use. Is it the only strategy that works? Definitely not. As a matter of fact almost every trader I know uses their own approach. Some strategies are proprietary systems. Some are plain vanilla strategies that are very basic in nature. The point is have a plan and an approach! So, learn one thing and be the best at it. There is way too much “noise” out there in the new and old media. Everyone claims to be a bull or bear market genius. Put the media on mute so you can follow and perfect your plan.

Being a voracious learner is absolutely key. Be a sponge and learn as much as you can. If you are a day trader, use the websites and read the books that will help you become the best. There are some phenomenal trading blogs out there. Most information is a click away.

3) Trading Too Large. I ran a sizable hedge fund and thankfully always beat the indices in good or bad markets. Much of my initiation and experience was baptism by fire. But if a novice trader asked me the one thing he or she should do to get a feel for the market, I would tell them to paper trade or use very small dollar amounts. There is absolutely no substitute for “screen hours.” Tiger Woods hits five hundred to a thousand balls a day, and he is already the best in the world. If trading is truly your passion, then be in front of your trading screen all day. If I miss twenty minutes of trading because I am out of the office, I genuinely feel like I missed the whole day — my rhythm is gone and my edge becomes diminished. You may be able to get away with less screen time if you are a longer term investor. But if your passion is perfecting the short term trading game, you won’t stand a chance. Good luck out there and don’t listen to the pundits.

Source: Joey Fundora

Making Trading Journals Work for You

I’d like to cover some of the features of trading journals that I have found helpful in my work with new and experienced professional traders. My goal as a trading psychologist is to do all that I can to accelerate traders’ learning curves. Sometimes this means helping traders with emotional problems, but just as often such problems are the result of trading difficulties and not their cause. A journal, properly constructed, is a powerful tool for learning—and relearning—markets and cultivating exemplary trading behaviours. Here are some of the principals that have guided my journal-based work with traders:

1. Make journals a part of the daily routine – Even if you don’t trade on a particular day, it is valuable to review the day’s setups and behaviour at key price levels. Reviewing patterns on different time frames can also help traders internalize the context of the markets they are trading, as well as the interrelationships among those markets. The French scientist Louis Pasteur observed that, in matters of observation, “chance only favours prepared minds”. Replaying market days, reviewing your own performance, and identifying missed opportunities prepares you for future performance, as your increasing familiarity with trading patterns sensitizes you to them in real time.

2. Incorporate specifics in your journals – If I had to identify the single most common shortcoming among trading journals, it would be their absence of detail. Entries such as, “I lost my discipline; I have to be more patient,” might be nice as post-it reminders, but are inadequate as journal entries. Journals need to clearly state what happened, your assessment of why it happened, and the specific steps you intend to take to deal with the situation in the future. A good rule is that anyone reading your journal should be able to identify and follow the exact same steps that you intend to take in the future. Your journal should be a planning document, not a statement of intentions.

3. Wherever possible, review your journal entries with a valued colleague or mentor – When I established a training program for new traders, one of my first steps was to insist upon daily review of trading journals. This required me to create a trusting and constructive environment, so that traders would be honest in their entries. Once that openness developed, the daily reviews became proactive planning sessions (usually shortly before the start of the trading day) that addressed issues before they could damage the profit/loss statement. Even more important, the daily review created expectations of accountability, as traders knew that my inevitable question would be, “How did you do with your goals for the day?”

4. Use journals to review positive trading performance, as well as problems – The number two shortcoming among journals is their focus on problems to the exclusion of solutions. If journals become a mere recounting of one’s flaws and inadequacies, traders will inevitably lose interest in them. Traders can learn as much from what they do right as from their errors. My favourite instruction to new traders is to highlight in their journals one thing that they did right the previous day that they want to replicate today and one thing that they could improve upon in today’s trading. This forces traders to stay in touch with their strengths, as well as their failings.

5. Each journal entry should include material about the markets and material about the trader – It is not unusual for traders to emphasize one at the expense of the other. The core concept I stress with traders is that of pattern recognition. Traders display patterns in their behaviours: some of these are positive; others interfere with profitability. Markets enact their patterns as well; it is the trader who can see these as they emerge and act quickly that has the best chance of long-term success. Including material about trading patterns and traders’ patterns makes the journal a learning tool about oneself and the markets.

The best trading journals I have observed have been ones that are creative and rigorous. Here are the two most important steps I believe you could take to turbo charge your journal:

1. Make it a multimedia project – Writing a journal in diary form is good, incorporating annotated charts is better, but including video is best of all. Programs such as e-Signal allow you to take screen captures of the market at any time of the trading day and also allow you to replay market days and review their unfolding. Better yet are desktop video programs such as Camtasia that create highly compressed video files of your desktop activity. This allows you to capture the day’s trade in its entirety, which you can then annotate by adding a voice track. Ninety percent of pattern recognition is repetition: seeing enough variants that you become sensitive to essential and inessential features. While static charts are better than nothing, they do not capture the unfolding of patterns: the very thing that traders need to be able to recognize and act upon. Videos provide the opportunity to see patterns over and over again, accelerating the recognition process. Multimedia journals also actively engage the trader and allow traders to process markets via multiple modalities (images, sound, text, etc.). Educational research tells us that learning is most likely to occur when learners are actively involved in the acquisition of knowledge and skills. An engaging, multimodal journal is apt to be a better learning vehicle than a dry diary.

2. Incorporate metrics – I could write a book on this topic. It is absolutely amazing how much more traders can get from their journals if they include basic statistics about their performance. Trading tendencies that escape normal notice suddenly stand out when summarized statistically. Areas for work and areas of improvement also stand out. With statistics, we can not only say that a trader made improvement, but can actually measure that improvement and track it over time. Such statistics capture improvements that will eventually show up in the profit/loss statement, but which may not be immediately evident.

Here are my favourite trading metrics for active traders:

* Number of winning, losing, and scratched trades;

* The average size of winning and losing trades;

* The average holding time per trade, and the average holding time broken down by winning, losing, and scratched trades;

* The number of winning, losing, and scratched trades broken down by long and short positions;

* The number of winning, losing, and scratched trades broken down by time of day;

* The average holding time per trade for long and short positions and broken down by time of day;

* The number of winning, losing, and scratched trades for days categorized as uptrending, downtrending, and neutral;

* Daily profit/loss, also broken down for days categorized as uptrending, downtrending, and neutral;

* The sequences of winning and losing trades during a day and from day to day;

* The largest winning and losing trades during a day and during a week;

* The largest winning and losing days during a week and during a month.

Less frequent traders can keep these statistics manually. Very active traders will benefit from programs that automatically capture trade data and summarize performance, such as Trader DNA (www.traderdna.com). The data provide very helpful benchmarks that allow traders to diagnose problems and track improvement.

Here are a few of the areas for improvement that commonly emerge from statistical analyses of performance:

* Holding onto losing trades as long or longer than winners;

* Trading with a persistent long or short bias that is not supported by market trends;

* Significantly different profitability during morning vs. afternoon trading hours;

* The tendency to have strings of winning and losing trades;

* Significantly different profitability during different market conditions, such as trending markets or volatile ones;

* The tendency to give back the results of many profitable trades in a few large losing ones.

When you combine rigorous metrics with a multimedia journal, the result is the kind of ongoing quality improvement process that typifies the finest business organizations. The best trading journals are technologies for learning and self-improvement. This takes time, effort, and creativity, but the results are worth the investment.

Forex Trading Simplified

Forex is the world’s most liquid and volatile trading market today. If you are new to FOREX trading, then you should have a good knowledge of its basic principles, and a better understanding of how the market works. 95% of traders who lose do so because they never took the time to learn the basic principles, and from the mistakes of others before them.

Get educated with all the basic fundamental elements and principles of the FOREX Market by getting an online FOREX Training course. Majority of those who fail miserably are those whose knowledge of the market is fairly limited in scope, or have none at all. Getting educated is just one step to having a successful career in currency trading, but it is by no means a guarantee to making sure profits.

Maximize Profits

• Learn how to maximize your profits by adopting various trading methods, and how it fits into your plans and expectations. Be familiar with the various systems applied by other traders to gradually get a basic knowledge of which system works for the various trading deals. Constantly scan for other trade deals done by large corporations, and banks since they are the ones mostly needing a continuous flow of currencies.

Be smart

• Learn and practice good Money and Risk Management skills to make trade decisions based on hard facts, not from emotion. In FOREX, values and rates are always fluctuating – so always keep your smarts on the alert in order to know when to buy or sell a currency. The technical aspects of currency trading is only as good as the trader whose interpreting it, so get a good understanding when to take a risk or when to let it pass by.

Learn as you progress

• Forex evolves in parallel to the developments and advancements of technology. Keep an open mind for new and updated methods and technologies to use in your daily trading activities. And never forget to keep abreast of free learning materials available on the Internet, as well as to read up on any news that might impact the industry.

Be disciplined

• Follow a system based on solid facts and data’s gathered from research, and tips from expert traders. Determine weak and strong points to make decisions based on a valid assessment. Keep a focused mind on your trading business at all times, and most importantly, always follow the rules and regulations of the trade, no matter what.

If you want to be on the winning side most of the time, and become a successful trader, you should follow these essential trading tips.

Source:Bart Icles

Trading – ten common elements of success

From time to time I have been asked to offer my perspectives on things I have found common in successful traders. I have always struggled with my reply to that question because there are only a few traders of which I have gained enough understanding of what they do every day to achieve their results.

1. They all have a tested, positive expectancy system that’s proved to make money for the market type for which it was designed.

2. They all have systems that fit them and their beliefs. They understand that they make money with their systems because their systems fit them.

3. They totally understand the concepts they are trading and how those concepts generate low-risk ideas.

4. They all understand that when they get into a trade, they must have some idea of when they are wrong and will bail out.

5. They all evaluate the ratio of reward to risk in each trade they take. For mechanical traders, this is part of their system. For discretionary traders, this is part of their evaluation before they take the trade.

6. They all have a business plan to guide their trading. You must treat your trading like any other business.

7. They all use position sizing. They have clear objectives written out, something that most traders/investors do not have. They also understand that position sizing is the key to meeting those objectives and have worked out a position sizing algorithm to meet those objectives.

8. They all understand that performance is a function of personal psychology and spend a lot of time working on themselves. You must become an efficient rather than inefficient decision maker.

9. They take total responsibility for the results they get. They don’t blame someone else or something else. They don’t justify their results. They don’t feel guilty or ashamed about their results. They simply assume that they created them and that they can create better results by eliminating mistakes.

10. They understand that not following their system and business plan rules is a mistake.

Source: Charles Kirk

Fifteen investment lessons from Jesse Livermore and John Paulson

To be a great trader you must be disciplined. Following a set of rules can make the difference between successful story telling versus ruminating on last week’s losses.

Jesse Livermore, one of the best traders of all time, and John Paulson, one of the best traders of the last few years, both have a set of rules they follow religiously. Their success serves as your opportunity to enhance your investment savviness.

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest investors of all time, has been featured in many investment books. The most popular was “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre in 1923. During the course of his life he made and lost millions, going broke several times before committing suicide in 1940. These are his seven greatest trading lessons:

1.     Cut your losses quickly.

2.     Confirm your judgments before going all in.

3.     Watch leading stocks for the best action.

4.     Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.

5.     Buy all-time new highs.

6.     Use pivot points to determine trends.

7.     Control your emotions.

John Paulson, a hedge-fund manager in New York, led his firm to make $20 billion in profits between 2007 and early 2009. By betting heavily against first the housing market and then later financial stocks, his firm made a killing. Paulson’s success netted him a paycheck of some $4 billion, or more than $10 million a day. His funds during this time had returns of several hundred per cent.

Here are his eight investment lessons:

1.     Don’t rely on experts, be skeptical.

2.     Always have an exit strategy.

3.     Debt markets can do a better job predicting problems than stock markets.

4.     Always educate yourself on new investment vehicles.

5.     Don’t underestimate insurance (such as put options).

6.     Experience counts.

7.     Don’t fall in love with any single investment, keep emotions aside.

8.     Don’t risk too much on any single trade, diversify risk.

By applying any of the above fifteen lessons you can become a better trader. Success takes time, and these rules will lead you in the right direction.

Source: Investment Postcard

Warren Buffett’s Holdings Outperforming In Q4

With the release of Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings as of the end of the third quarter yesterday, we can take a look at how these holdings have been doing so far this quarter.  As shown at the bottom of the table, Buffett’s Berkshire holdings are currently up 8.61% since the start of October, while the S&P 500 is up 4.41%. 

Buffett’s top holding with a value of more than $11 billion, Coca-Cola (KO), is even outperforming the S&P 500 so far this quarter (5.66% to 4.41%).  Unsurprisingly, Buffett’s position in Burlington Northern (BNI) has done the best so far this quarter with a gain of 22.87%.  Buying one of your biggest positions at a nice premium is one way to boost returns!

Other big winners for Buffett this quarter have been AXP (+20.59%), COP (+18.7%), MCO (15.91%), IR (19.99%), NLC (18.2%), NSC (19.28%), and UNH (15.06%).  Ten of his 41 holdings are down so far this quarter, with USG down the most at -15.13%.

Source: Bespoken Research

Managing Trading Risk: Learning How to Lose

A while back, a trader told me he was doubling his money each year in the market and asked if I wanted to invest funds with him. He offered a verified track record of his results. I immediately declined. My rule is that, over time, a trader will always draw down at least half of his or her targeted return rate. Anyone who guns for 100% returns annually will surely, at some point, experience a 50% drawdown. That’s not for me.

Risk and reward are always proportional. Those who understood that did not invest with Madoff.

A trader told me that he made a sizable six figures in a day of trading. Later, he wrote to me in a tizzy because he had lost six figures. Another one of my rules is that you should always trade small enough to comfortably weather five consecutive stop outs. If you trade enough, that series of losers *will* occur. Risk 10% of your capital in your trades and it’s Russian roulette: eventually you’ll come to that chamber that has the bullet of five consecutive losses.

If 20% of my capital is the maximum that I can countenance losing over time, I am going to trade smaller when I draw down 5%, smaller still when down 10%, and smaller yet when down 15%. As I’m trading worse, I’m risking less. I make it more difficult to hit my 20% threshold because I’m putting less capital at risk during drawdown periods.

Conversely, by risking a fixed fraction of my capital when making money, I naturally achieve greater risk/reward as I am trading well.

I know from experience that, at some point over time, I will draw down 10 times what I’m willing to risk on a single trade. If I risk one percent of my capital in a trade, I’d better be prepared to endure a 10% drawdown in capital at some point in the future. If I risk 5% of my capital in each trade, I’ll eventually lose at least half of my money. Probability and psychology guarantee slumps; wise traders plan for them.

So much of trading success is knowing how to lose.

Posted by Brett Steenbarger

Top Books on Investment Bubbles and Stock Distributions

Below is my list of the top books that chat about stock distributions and rare events.  I also included some market history and bubbles lists too for comparison.  

Stock Distributions

• Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems - Didier Sornette
  
• The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot
• Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• Finding Alpha – by Eric Falkenstein
• Market Volatility – Robert Shiller
• Optimal Portfolio Modeling – Philip McDonnell
• Fractal Market Analysis - Edgar Peters
• More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places - Michael Mauboussin
• The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It – Douglas Hubbard

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Market Bubbles

• Manias, Panics, and Crashes by Charles Kindleberger
• Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay
• The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, & Power by Daniel Yergin
• The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt by TJ Stiles
• Irrational Exuberance – by Robert Shiller

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History of Markets

• Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton
• Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFèvre
• When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein
• Capital Ideas, Capital Ideas Evolving, and Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein
• Ibbotson Yearbook by Ibbotson Associates
• The CRB Commodity Yearbook by Commodity Research Bureau
• The Essays of Warren Buffett by Warren E. Buffett and Lawrence A. Cunningham
• Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone
• The Myth of the Rational Market - Justin Fox

Online Trading – MACD Divergence

Understanding how to interpret a MACD divergence can be very helpful for you in trading. Do you know what does a MACD Divergence means? Just that the current price trend is running out of steam. It soon may reverse direction. However, price reversal may not happen right away. But a MACD Divergence is a powerful hint. The market is changing direction. It is easy to spot MACD crossovers and dramatic rises. Not so a MACD divergence. Spotting a MACD divergence will only come after practice.

What you are looking for is when the price action and MACD do not agree. For example, if the price is making a series of higher highs and MACD is making a series of lower lows, something is wrong between the two.

Most probably the traders are getting nervous and slowly fading out of their trades. MACD divergence is seen as a sign that fewer and fewer traders are in the trend. No one is trading against the trend and yet fewer and fewer traders are in the trend.

The only traders in the trend are nervous. They are likely to exit their trade at the first sign of trouble. So if MACD is diverging from the bullish trend. As soon as the bears muster up enough guts to short, the bulls will exit and the bears will take over.

There are two powerful keys in locating times when MACD divergence is likely to represent a reversal in price. This is exactly why MACD is so powerful. It takes time to setup but when it works, it often works well.

MACD divergence can be powerful when the price is at the double tops or double bottoms. You are making your trading plan based on the bounce or breakout of the support and resistance. At this point you spot MACD divergence. This is known as Exhaustion Pullback.

You should trade now based on rejection reversal. This is a sign that the price action is running out of steam. This indicates that there are not enough committed traders to break the support and resistance (S&R).

MACD is also used as an overbought/ oversold indicator or oscillator. Suppose you see that it has reached its overbought/ oversold range. The price action is turning normal. This is a signal that you should avoid trading at this time.

Dont think that the currency pair is overbought and everyone is buying. However, when the price reaches its extreme, you will see price exhaust and the MACD line drop back into normal zone. Dont confuse the overbought/ oversold MACD zones as trade opportunities.

It is also important to note that divergence can not only be found on the MACD line and the signal line, it can also be found on the histogram. These two situations along with your other technical indicators can provide excellent trading opportunities.

MACD on eBridge Trader

Source: Ahmad Hassam

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 3-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 17 overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.43% and RIO down 0.93%. BHP was down 1.74% and RIO down 0.82% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3648c, down16c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on the LME Copper down 0.45%, Nickel down 0.97%, Zinc down 1.37% and Aluminium up 0.06%, Lead up 1.75% Oil price unchanged at $68.05. Gold price up strongly $22.00 to $979. Largest interday gains in 5 months. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.295% down from 3.375%. A$ up 83.39c versus 82.65c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.26% VIX Volatility Index down 0.86% to 28.90

August FOMC minutes said the Fed still concerned about pace of economic recovery and continued challenges for the banking sector. Headline July factory orders just under consensus forecasts. Factory orders for July showed their sharpest increase since June 2008 by rising 1.3%, but that was still short of the 2.2% consensus increase that had been expected. The ADP Employment Change Report for August showed that 298,000 private jobs were lost last month. This was disappointing as economists were expecting 250,000 job losses. Unit labor costs for the 2Q were down 5.9%, which was slightly steeper than what had been expected. 2Q productivity spiked 6.6% in its biggest percentage increase since 2003. Market expectations were for an increase in productivity of 6.4%

The market is down 6. The SFE Futures were down 17 this morning. The Trade Balance has come in worse than expected. Now stands at $1.56bn compared to the $850m

expected.

The Basics of Forex Fundamental & Technical Analysis to Help You Succeed

The scrutiny, political arena, economics, asset markets is the function of Fundamental analysis when it is used to measures one countries currency against another countries currency. The Fundamental analysis uses the pressure of government policies and this drives the demand and supply up to the demands of an economy. In respect of this, no single idea, or set of ideas, influences the Forex fundamental analysis.

All the same, fundamental analysis, virtually all of them at any rate, apply macroeconomic indices including prime rates of interest, economics, inflation, unemployment variations. If you think about it, the part of Forex fundamental factors that are involved in the shaping of currency movements.

Let’s consider the economic indicators. The reports are issued by private or governments with details of a country’s performance economically. The indices on the economics are issued annually, every quarter or even every month and are intermeshed around particular economic information. 2 basic factors are rates of interest and trade internationally. Additional factors are consumer durables orders, Consumer pricing Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).

The currency interest rates are fundamentally an economical function of all countries. When a nation interest rates ascend, unremarkably, the currency of that nation will fortify against another. Nonetheless, mounting rates of interest, for stock exchanges is sad news. It’s a truth a lot of investors remove investments from a country where the rates are going up.

An important factor, of course, is the International Trade. The balance of trade indicates the difference between exports and imports. A deficit might be an economic catastrophe for a countries currency and its government. A deficit could come at a time a country is importing more than exporting and means more currency is exiting than is entering that country. All thought, a deficit may not be a bad thing and only damaging when the deficit being larger than expectations in the market and will start unfavorable price movements.

A great deviation from forex technical drives past fundamental and is practised only to price action and forex technical analysis comprises of an diversity of forex technical disciplines. All one utilised to find the market direction. Technical analysis correlates the motions and consequences of prevailing markets and currency outlooks are short-run. Data acquired on a trading day determines the interest in the markets and informs forex traders of a bull market. The Forex technical analysis checks movement trends and brings about far-flung “trend is your friend” a phrase amongst Forex traders. The linchpin for maintaining a effective profit level is the selling and buying at the correct time and acknowledging when it is safe to enter or exit a position.

The basic principals of Forex technical is support an resistance which are the guiding points for a chart to depict recurring ups and down pressure. The low point is the support level an while the level of resistance is a high point in the pattern. During the resistance levels, buying and selling is the strategy by the veteran trader.

History frequently repeats itself and generally in the circumstance of price movements is a maxim of the technical analysis. The repetitive nature of price movements is oftentimes granted to the Forex marke psychology. Traders have a response to related inputs of the market in special periods of time. The technical analysis applies formulas to break down Forex movements within the market and translates the trends too.

In spite of this, numerous graphs have been and still are used nowadays and they still are considered genuinely relevant as they represent the price movement patterns often repeated. This should give you an approximation of the Fundamental and Technical Analysis and should be good for you once you are willing to commence your calling as an investor. Remember – never invest any money you have got or can’t risk to throw down the drain.

Source: John Eather

Country GDP Growth

Below we highlight 2009 estimated GDP growth for 21 countries.  As shown, only China and India are expected to actually grow in 2009, while the other countries are expected to contract.  China’s 2009 GDP growth estimate is at 7.66%, while India’s is at 4%.  The US is closer to the top of the list than the bottom with an estimate of -2.49%.  It ranks only behind Canada among other G-7 countries.  Japan and Germany are expected to see the biggest contraction in GDP in 2009 at -6.61% and -6.06% respectively.  The UK is at -3.74%, Russia is at -2.77%, and France is at -2.75%. 

Source: Bespoken Research

Trading Lessons From Ted Williams

The sports greats have much to teach us about success in any performance domain, including trading. Here are three things we can learn from baseball legend Ted Williams:

 1) Believe in Yourself – Williams broke into the major leagues with a brash confidence that turned off many people. When he was sent to the minor leagues, he informed the Red Sox’s starting outfielders that he would be back and would make more money than the three of them put together. We live up to our deepest image of ourselves; Williams experienced himself as a great talent long before the world recognized his hitting genius.

 2) Work Hard, Work Smart – Williams treated hitting as a science and learned his batting average for pitches placed in any given part of the strike zone. That enabled him to wait for good pitches and play to his strengths. How similar that is to trading, where the successful trader waits for the trades that provide an objective edge. “Proper thinking is 50% of effective hitting,” Williams asserted, emphasizing the importance of doing homework to learn the ins and outs of each opposing pitcher. 

3) Seek Success, Don’t Just Avoid Failure – In 1941, Williams went into the final game of the season with a batting average of .3996. His coach knew it would be rounded to .400 and offered to bench Williams to preserve his average. Williams insisted on playing, went 6 for 8 in a doubleheader, and finished the year with a historic .406 average. Recently I worked with a trader who was up by a very solid five figures late in the session. He saw an idea at the end of the day, put on size, and meaningfully added to his day. He was driven by a desire for success, not just an avoidance of loss.

So many of the qualities I see in great traders are exemplified by Williams. Great things happen when confidence leads to skill building, which leads to greater confidence.

Source: Brett Steenbarge

Million Dollar Traders – TV Show

If you have missed any of the Million Dollar Traders (SBS TV Show) episodes you maybe able to find some episodes online.

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Million%20Dollar%20Traders

About

Million Dollar Traders – Make me a trader

Eight ordinary people are given a million dollars, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing?

The experiment reveals the inner workings of a City trading floor. The money is supplied by hedge fund manager Lex van Dam: he wants to see if ordinary people can beat the professionals, and he expects a return on his investment too. Yet no-one foresees the financial crisis that lies ahead.

The traders were selected in spring 2008, before the US credit crisis gathered pace. The successful candidates were chosen, trained and dispatched to their specially created trading room in the heart of the Square Mile. Among them are an environmentalist, a soldier, a boxing promoter, an entrepreneur, a retired IT consultant, a vet, a student and a shopkeeper.

As the novices learn the dark art of trading stocks and shares, the financial markets start to buckle. Making money takes second place to basic survival as the brutal realities of global economics take their toll on the traders. How do they cope? Will they secure themselves a bonus, or walk away with nothing?

StoneBridge Snapshot – Lihir Gold Limited (LGL)

StoneBridge Snapshot – Lihir Gold Limited (LGL $2.88) – Ballarat to be written down by US$250-350M

• LGL has announced that it will write down the value of the Ballarat project by US$250-350M.
• The write down is attributable to the long-term production guidance for the project being lowered to 80-100kozpa.
• Production for CY09 has also been downgraded from ~50koz to 20koz.
• The downgrade of Ballarat’s long-term production is disappointing but is largely immaterial to our investment case for LGL.
• LGL offers excellent exposure to gold prices through its 100% owned Lihir Gold mine in PNG, which boasts 21.7Moz in reserve and 36.3Moz in resource.
• With the inevitable downgrade of Ballarat now a reality we believe the market will begin to focus on the production growth at Lihir and the excellent exploration potential of the company’s large tenement holding in Côte d’Ivoire.
• We are upgrading our recommendation on LGL from Hold to BUY and set a price target of $3.30/share.

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