Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) – Listing Today

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) is due to list today (22-July) at 11:00am.

Company Overview

Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area of in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:

• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins);
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).

For more information, please visit http://www.guildfordcoal.com.au/

Learn Basics of Elliott Wave Analysis — FREE

Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle in the 1930s. Over the decades, his discovery was kept alive by a handful of individuals. A few of those, such as Bolton, Prechter and Frost, educated investors on how to use pattern analysis in financial markets.

To help out Elliott Wave International’s readers in learning the basics of the method, we put together a free 10-lesson online tutorial. Here’s an excerpt. To get it in full, look for details below.

EWI’s Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial
Lesson 1, excerpt

At that time [of his discovery], with the Dow in the 100s, R. N. Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, phenomenal stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott Wave approach.

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others’ behavior. This feedback loop is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

The market…is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five wave pattern at the largest degree of trend.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Tutorial and see multiple charts now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free! Here’s what you’ll learn:

• What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
• Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
• How to estimate the length of waves
• How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
• Practical application tips for the method
• More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

Source: http://www.safehaven.com/article/17423/learn-basics-of-elliott-wave-analysis-free

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) Share Offer

To access this offer and for a copy of the prospectus including the application form, please contact Eden Hage at eden.hage@stonebridgegroup.com.au or on 07 5504 2141.

INDICATIVE KEY DATES
Prospectus lodged with ASIC 27 May 2010
Opening Date 10 June 2010
Closing Date 11 June 2010
Expected date for allocation of shares 18 June 2010
Expected date for despatch of holding statements 21 June 2010
Expected date for the quotation of the Company’s securities on ASX 24 June 2010

Company Overview

Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:

• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins)
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Springsure Project (Bowen Basin) (acquisition to be completed on the date of successful close of the Offer);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).

According to the Independent Technical Expert:

“The projects represent a diversified portfolio of genuine coal exploration targets located in the premium coal basins of Queensland with potential for a variety of coals including export thermal, PCI and hard coking qualities. The projects are mostly located close to existing rail infrastructure and present the opportunity to access multiple port facilities. Guildford has proposed a two year program of exploration on each of the areas held by the Company. The program is designed to define the coal resources to at least Inferred status by year one, although in several cases it should be possible that resources may be defined to Indicated and Measured status by year two.”

ASX Stock Report 13-4-10

1. Early selling market -13.2points by 10.10am. Then again post 1pm, market lost any leads from yesterday as commodities lost value across the board.

• ASX 200 4951.6 -0.66%

• SPI Futures 4964.0 -0.86%

2. BHP $43.84 -1.37%; RIO $79.50 (-1.44%), Gold Spot –US$11.45/oz LGL $3.92 -1.51%; NCM $34.41 -1.49%, Oil spot –US$0.68/barrel STO $14.64 -1.88%; ORG $16.75 -1.41%

3. ABS lending finance data for February; commercial finance +5.6% – revolving credit commitments +13.7% and fixed lending commitments +2.9%, owner occupied lending -4.4%, personal finance +0.7% – fixed lending commitments +1% & revolving credit commitments +0.4%. Lease finance commitments +0.8%.

4. NAB business conditions index +6points to 13pts. Strongest since November 07, on improved employment forecasts, capacity utilisation and stronger eco growth forecasts. – WSJ

5. Energy: Coal – KRL $0.19 -2.56% Indonesian Coal resources; 1) Thermal Coal GPK project 84.82% owned. Commencing production 25KTp.m. Margin $20/T; expecting 1-2MT p.a.CY10 & +10MT p.a. within three years. 2) Mamahak Coking project inherited 30KT stockpile ready for immediate shipping, have exposed 15KT of fresh resource for mining. Initial production 30KTp.m. margin $50/T. Infrastructure capable of 1.5MTp.a. Production JORC resources 10.22MT. 3) New m’ment looking to unlock value.

6. MTE $0.305 -3.17% finding a level market after being up 40% over a week.

7. Santos signs Gas sale and Purchase agreement with Wesfarmers Energy WES $32.28 -0.28%. Five year contract for 60 Petajoules of gas, sourced from John Brookes gas field offshore WA. Commence 2H CY10

8. Energy: Uranium – EXT $7.83 -0.89%; BKY $1.52 +0.66%

9. ERA $18.52 -5.94%; -27% 1Q uranium output, expected from lower grade resource.

10. Over the past 12 months, the price of uranium has hovered between USD 55.00/lb and USD 40.00/lb, and is currently priced around USD 41.75/lb; the latest peak was seen in mid-2009 at around USD 54.00/lb.

11. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development paints a healthy growing demand for uranium, especially in the longer term, and the World Nuclear Association reckons that where mine supply was about 44,000 tonnes (about 20% each from Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia) in 2008, demand is likely to increase to 74,000 tonnes by 2015

12. OneSteel $3.96 -3.41% blast furnace failure leading to production stoppage.

13. Industrial Services: DOW $7.44 -2.75%; AAX $4.75 -0.84%; BLY $0.345 -2.82%; TOL $7.50 +0.4%

14. MAH $0.815 -3.55% awarded $90M rail contract, 16th March awarded $190M contract to operate Cameby Downs coal in QLD.

15. Leighton $37.85 -0.24% JV contract with Abigroup to upgrade Gateway motorway QLD. $240M contract extension. Also awarded $940M adjustment from Energy Resources to increase production at Ukhaa Khudag coal mine in Mangolia.

16. South Korean Hyundai Merchant Marine contract with Brazil and Australian iron ore shipment, translates to $315M in sales for 2010-2015. is a 15yr contract. 50:50 JV with Far East Marine Group.

17. Healthcare: SIP $0.515 (-0.96%) SHL $14.48 (+1.54%) ISF $0.58 (-1.69%) PRY $4.25 (+1.92%)

18. TLS $3.19 (+2.9%) drove up telecoms.

19. Utilities: EWC 0.50 +3.09%; APA $3.70 +1.65%; AGK 15.38 (+1.18%)

20. Retail: US based discretionary’s FXJ $1.775 (-1.39%) NWS $18.95 (-1.3%) ALL $4.55 (-1.09%) WDC $12.17 (+0.08%)

21. Retail auto sellers performing well off the back of rebounding industry. Car sales YoY March +25.2% (from last week). Super Cheap Auto $5.11 (+0.2%) Automotive Holdings $2.60 (-1.52%) ARB Corp $5.72 (+0.35%)

How to Profit by Swing Trading

It’s not exactly breaking news. A buy and hold strategy hasn’t worked for the last decade. You probably know as much if you’ve opened your retirement account statement lately. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are all flat or down over the last 10 years.

It’s time to face facts, the old-time buy a few large-cap blue chips and hold them forever strategy has gone the way of the Dodo bird.

So, what’s the answer for this particular market?

Personally I swing. Swing trade that is.

I like swing trading for this market because it takes advantage of momentum… or trading in and out of stocks and sectors that are seeing a temporary boost. There’s no ‘buy and hope’ strategy at play here.

Let’s take a look at how swing trading works.

In a nutshell swing trading is… buying the lows and selling the highs. Ok, I know what you’re thinking… how do I consistently buy the lows and sell the highs? It seems like it is easier said than done.

Although there’s a lot of different ways to approach it, my favourite is looking for technically-based short-term trends. And taking a position to profit from the trend.

Here’s something you might not know; swing traders don’t care why a stock is trending. If the technical’s show there’s a trend, it’s not your job to figure out why. You just want to profit from it.

But here’s the catch… the stock market isn’t just flat over the last 10 years. It’s flat over the last few months too. Lots of volatility but no real trends.

You may be happy to see a flat market – especially after last year. But for swing traders like me a flat market is worse.

So how do you overcome a flat US market?

By not limiting yourself to just the stock market.

Here’s why. You won’t always find a trend in the US stock market. So I’ll trade foreign markets, bonds, commodities and even currencies. Until recently, access to these markets was difficult and often required separate trading accounts.

In the past, many individual investors found it hard to trade these markets. This helped give rise to the notion that a buy and hold strategy is the best way to invest.

Now, there’s an easy way to trade ASX stocks, foreign stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies using momentum. It’s quick, cheap, painless and you can do it all from one trading account.

Want to know what it is?

That’s right, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). These are the one investment that can give you exposure to all of these markets. Today’s ETFs are revolutionizing the ability to trade currencies, commodities, and foreign markets. You can now really drill down and focus on specific subsectors of all these markets.

As I said… follow the trend. If you can’t find it in the US stock market, you now have easy access to an entire array of markets with ETFs.

I believe that the big money over the next few months and years will be found in the ’specialty’ ETFs that are popping up. The value of these ETFs can be derived from commodities like gold, currency pairs, corporate bonds, and any specific subsector you can think of. The list goes on and on.

And now you can go long or short with two or even three times leverage. Talk about spicing things up!

And remember as a swing trader you don’t care why the ETF is trending. The patterns and trends you use as a swing trader hold up regardless of the asset being traded. So you can apply the same technical analysis principles that you use with stocks.

Combining technical analysis, momentum trading, and specialty ETFs isn’t a bad way to trade this market right now. And it sure beats the heck out of buying a few blue chips and holding on for dear life!

Stock Trading Psychology

Many of todays highly successful traders will tell you that the general key to success in trading is to be able to comfortably take a loss. It is general knowledge among experts in the trading psychology field and among traders that the market is not predictable and it is safe to say that it never will be. In the world of trading, it is expected to take a loss; even those who are highly skilled traders know that it is inevitable. With that said, let us have a look at things you as a trader should be aware of, how you can take a loss effectively and use it towards the greater good of your trading world.

Trading psychology tells us that when a trader loses he begins to become somewhat of a perfectionist in his dealing. Many traders think that in trading, a good day will always be one that is profitable. Trading psychology experts tells us this is not true.-

A trader should define a good day as one where they have extensively researched and planned with discipline and focus, and have followed through to the entire extent of the plan. Yes, when a trader has mastered the art of accepting losses and working through them with a well thought out plan then good days will become profitable in time.

Because the art of trading in an unpredictable market fluctuates so greatly from one day to the next, experts in trading psychology believe that it is important that you concentrate on what you can control, instead of things that are beyond your control. Looking into the short-term you cannot expect to be able to control the profits of your trading. With that said, look at what you do you have ability to control.

You do have the ability to control the difference between good and bad days. You are able to control this factor by extensively researching the strategies you implement within your trading experiences. By learning to research your chosen strategies, thus controlling the amount of good and bad trading days you experience, you will, in the long-term begin to generate profits, which is the ultimate goal of every trader.

Trading psychology experts tell us that it is important to become realistic in trading instead of becoming a perfectionist. Perfectionist traders, relate a loss with failure, and will become obsessed with the failure, focusing only upon it. Realistic traders understand the unpredictability of the market and taking a loss is simply part of the art.

The main key you must remember in trading psychology to be able to effectively limit your losses, instead of becoming obsessed with them. A common thing seen within the trading psychology world is that traders who are obsessed with their losses often have a hard time bouncing back from them, thus losing in the end.

Experts in trading psychology have organized three basic strategies you can use to effectively stop losses. These strategies are:

Price Based

Time Based

Indicator Based

Stops that are priced based are generally used when the other two have not functioned. To make this work you will need to make hypothesiss about the trade and identify a low point in that particular market. Then you will set your trade entries near your points, thus making sure that losses will not be overly excessive if the hypothesis fails.

Time Based stops constitutes making use of your time. Designate a holding period you allow to capture a certain number of points. If you have no achieved your desired profit within that time limit, you should stop the trade. If effectively used you should stop even if the price stop limit has not been achieved.

The Indicator based stop makes use of market indicators. As a trader, you should be aware of these indicators and utilize them extensively within your trading experiences. Look at indicators such as, volume, advances, declines, and new highs and lows.

Experts in trading psychology say that setting stops and rehearsing them mentally is a good psychological tool to use and will help ensure that you follow through.

Stocks/CFDs on Total Trader

Investors are increasingly looking to Contracts for Difference

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CFD trading is carried out on live prices on Total Trader’s online
trading platforms, without the delays of normal stock trading,
such as waiting for fills from the stock exchange.

CFDs are more flexible method of trading stocks online and investors are increasingly looking to it.

Investors are increasingly looking to Contracts for Difference (CFDs) as a more flexible method of trading stocks online.

Stock/CFD Exchanges Available

Americas
US  – American Stock Exchange, NASDAQ Capital Market, NASDAQ Global Markets, New York Stock Exchange, Other OTC on NASDAQ (Pink Sheets)
Canada – Toronto Stock Exchange

Asia Pacific
Australia – Australian Stock Exchange Ltd.
Hong Kong -Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Japan - Tokyo Stock Exchange

Europe
UK – London Stock Exchange
Switzerland – Swiss Exchange, Virt-X
Germany – Frankfurt /Xetra Stock Exchange
Italy – Milano Stock Exchange
Denmark – OMX Copenhagen
Plus more than 10 other European exchanges

Index CFDs

Trade over 15 Index-tracking CFDs across over 20 exchanges worldwide with a single click. Additionally index-tracking CFDs trade on live prices without needing to subscribe to live pricing.

Index-tracking CFDs are the easiest way to gain exposure to global stock markets whether taking long or short positions. Index-tracking CFDs are linked to the performance of a stock index which allows investors to easily diversify investment risks. These index-tracking CFDs can be short sold, opening up the possibility of turning a profit in a falling market.

DMA CFD Trading – Direct Market Access

Designed to cater to the professional trader and investor, we offer CFD Exchange DMA on most global exchanges. CFD Exchange DMA gives Direct Market Access to the exchange order book on real-time CFD prices. This means a trader can combine the benefits of trading direct on an exchange with the leverage of margin-traded CFDs.

With DMA CFDs, traders get direct access to the exchange order book and can place trades directly around the live market depth. CFD Exchange DMA is a leveraged product, allowing for increased market exposure, while short selling is also a possibility.

Live Market Prices - Costs & Rebates

By default, clients have access to delayed market data on the equities and futures exchanges on which they are enabled to trade. To receive real-time market data for stock, CFD, CFD DMA or futures trading, clients will have to subscribe to the individual exchanges. Clients will incur a small monthly subscription fees for the data they elect to receive in real time. An Online Subscription Tool is available on the live trading platforms.

Data fee rebates for active equity trading clients.
For equities clients that subscribe to real-time market data, we have introduced a data fee rebate scheme where fees are rebated per exchange should clients trade the minimum number of times across both stocks and CFDs during each calendar month. Rebates are only applicable for non-professional equities clients subscribing to level-1 data. The definition of Non-Professional and Professional subscribers may vary by exchange.

Stock Trading: Apple, Amazon.com Approach All-Time Highs

Don’t look now, but Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) are not only hitting bull market highs, but they’re also approaching all-time highs.  If the economy is still weak, investors in AAPL and AMZN aren’t too worried.  While this is indicative of overall market strength, it’s also a major testament to how well these two companies have done even through the toughest times.  Amazon.com’s all-time closing high is $106.69, reached at the peak of the Internet Bubble.  The stock is currently trading at $97.2.  Apple’s all-time high was reached on December 28th, 2007 when it closed at $199.83.  AAPL is currently trading at $191.28. 

Source: Bespoken Research

The ABC’s of Stock Trading

A wise man chooses to do in the beginning what the fool is forced to do in the end.

Better to be wrong and rich than right and broke.

Create an atmosphere of confidence and you will never choke on the bone of contention.

Develop an edge and stick to it. If you are not living on the edge then you are falling off of one.

Enter the market prepared or you will exit impaired.

Forget the last trade or the market will steal your next one.

Giving in to emotional bias is akin to giving up.

He who chases three rabbits catches none.

If it sounds to easy to be true then it is neither easy or true.

Just say no when the market has said yes one too many times.

Keep what you have by not keeping what you never intended to have.

Losers justify and winners rectify.

Make time for self.

Noise is the mother of doubt.

Obvious trades can lead to blind faith.

Poor execution can result in a broken disposition.

Quitting is not a fork in the road but a dead end street.

Reason looks for support in the past while judgment considers the weight of the future.

Stocks move first and ask questions later.

Timing the market is like winding a clock that has no hands.

Understand yourself first and the market last.

Voice your opinion in mute mode.

Wishers become has beens when what has been becomes a wish.

Xtra time in the market could spell disaster in the home.

Your ability to win is based on your willingness to lose.

Zoos welcome bulls and bears but pigs…

Source: David Blair

10 rules for investing -Bob Farrell’s

Wall Street “gurus” come and go, but in the case of Bob Farrell legendary status was achieved. He spent several decades as chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. and had a front-row seat at the go-go markets of the late 1960s, mid-1980s and late 1990s, the brutal bear market of 1973-74, and October 1987 crash.

Farrell retired in 1992, but his famous “10 Market Rules to Remember” have lived on and are summarized below, courtesy of The Big Picture and MarketWatch (June 2008). The words of wisdom are timeless and are especially appropriate as investors grapple with the difficult juncture at which stock markets find themselves at this stage.

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time

When stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. Euphoria and pessimism can cloud people’s heads. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose perspective.

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction

Think of the market baseline as attached to a rubber string. Any action too far in one direction not only brings you back to the baseline, but leads to an overshoot in the opposite direction.

3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent

Whatever the latest hot sector is, it eventually overheats, mean reverts, and then overshoots. Look at how far the emerging markets and BRIC nations ran over the past six years, only to get cut in half.

As the fever builds, a chorus of “this time it’s different” will be heard, even if those exact words are never used. And of course, it – human nature – is never different.

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways

Regardless of how hot a sector is, don’t expect a plateau to work off the excesses. Profits are locked in by selling, and that invariably leads to a significant correction eventually.

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom

That’s why contrarian-minded investors can make good money if they follow the sentiment indicators and have good timing. Watch Investors Intelligence (measuring the mood of more than 100 investment newsletter writers) and the American Association of Individual Investors Survey.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve

Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold. Gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism”, says Santa Clara University finance professor Meir Statman. His studies of investor behavior show that “Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.”

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names

This is why breadth and volume are so important. Think of it as strength in numbers. Broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. Watch for when momentum channels into a small number of stocks.

8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

I would suggest that as of August 2008, we are on our third reflexive rebound – the January rate cuts, the Bear Stearns low in March, and now the Fannie/Freddie rescue lows of July.

We have yet to see the long-drawn-out fundamental portion of the bear market.

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen

As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: “If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?”

Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest.

10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets

Especially if you are long only or mandated to be fully invested. Those with more flexible charters might squeak out a smile or two here and there.

Sources: The Big Picture

Market ‘Noise’: How Seasoned Traders Learn to Ignore It

For many years I was a futures market reporter. I spent time working right on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. Most of the time my daily reporting “beat” involved interviewing traders and analysts and then writing three daily market reports. For months at a time I would cover the same markets, day in and day out. It was a fantastic learning experience and an opportunity that very few get.

One thing I eventually discovered from covering the same markets day after day, month after month, was that the vast majority of the time the vast majority of the markets’ overall fundamental and technical situations did not change on a day-today basis. Yet, as a market reporter I was conditioned to write about why the market went up one day and why the market went down the next day, and so on.

Even though a market may have been in a very narrow trading range for days or weeks, I had to ask the traders and analysts every day to come up with some fresh fundamental and\or technical reasons why that market moved only a fraction. Reporting on the New York “soft” futures markets (coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and orange juice) is especially difficult for a reporter. He or she needs to dig up and write about some fresh-sounding news every day. The soft markets many times just do not have much fresh fundamental news on a daily basis — or sometimes even on a weekly basis, for that matter. Conversely, it was easier covering the financial and currency markets because there was usually at least one government economic report that came out every day that would make those markets wiggle a bit. Or, some government official (like Greenspan) would make comments to which those markets took notice.

As time went on and I came to better understand markets and market behavior, and as I studied specific trading strategies, I realized that the day-to-day market “noise” is not of much use to most traders. Here’s a specific example of market noise:

Recently the live cattle futures market was up a bit on a Monday due to talk that the cash cattle trade later in the week would be at higher money. On Tuesday the futures market dropped a bit because of ideas the cash cattle market trade later in the week may not be at firmer money, but steady at best. Nobody was trying to manipulate the live cattle market that week. It was just a case of differing opinions getting center stage when the market closed on different sides of unchanged.

For a trader who tries to follow the near-term fundamentals in a market too closely, hearing that kind of conflicting news can be a nuisance at least, or a factor that prevents successful trading results at most. It’s not easy for less-experienced traders to ignore the differing daily drumbeat of fundamental news that is reportedly impacting a market.

The lesson here is that prudent traders should not become overly sensitive or reactive to most of the day-to-day fundamental news events that are reported to be moving the market on any given day. What is important for the trader is that he or she recognizes and understands the overall trend of the market, and that daily market “noise” is usually an insignificant part of the overall process of trading and of market behavior, itself.

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The Ability to Not Trade: An Unappreciated Contributor to Successful Trading

I compared the trader to a sniper, blending self-control with a high level of aggression and decisiveness. There is one other respect in which traders are like snipers: both engage in periods of intense performance activity punctuated by potentially long periods of inactivity.

The sniper may wait hours or even days in a hide, waiting for the perfect shot. Wet, cold, cramping, and simple boredom are the sniper’s greatest enemies. It is a rare individual who can keep still for extended periods of time and then function with the utmost skill and accuracy. How do they do it? Many keep themselves mentally occupied and active, even while they’re physically still.

One characteristic I’ve found among successful traders is that they function effectively when they’re not trading. When markets become very quiet and range bound, they occupy themselves with a variety of activities, from sharing ideas with peers to conducting research. Traders who do not tolerate inactivity well inevitably feel the need to trade, often when there is no objective edge present. For them, losing money is less onerous than experiencing boredom.

By structuring your non-trading time, you can be like the sniper: fresh in your thought and perception, even as you’re waiting patiently for the next opportunity. Reviewing markets and relationships, reviewing your performance, testing trading ideas, learning from and teaching others: there are many activities that make non-trading time productive.

If, however, your motivation is not to understand markets and develop yourself–if your motivation is to enjoy the thrill of risk and action–you will find non-trading time to be aversive. There are those who live to trade and there are those who trade to make money. Trading success is an expression of what you bring to markets; it cannot fill a personal void.

Source: Brett Steenbarger

Market tipped to hit 4500 by year end

Expectations the Australian share market can climb above the 4500-point level by the end of 2009 have been boosted by the bourse retracing back through 4000 to a seven-month high yesterday following economic data showing a recession was avoided in the March quarter.

However, market analysts warn that a market correction of up to 10 per cent could be prompted by weaker corporate earnings and poor offshore economic data.

The S&P/ASX200 has risen 7.9 per cent since January 1, and Wednesday’s close at 4017.2  was its strongest finish since November 10, 2008.

The benchmark index retreated 1.7 per cent this morning to around 3950 points, following a weak lead from Wall Street.

Bell Potter Securities senior client adviser Stuart Smith said the market had “most definitely” bottomed on March 6 when the S&P/ASX 200 hit 3145 points.

The S&P/ASX 200 is now up more than 25 per cent from its March low.

Zurich Australia’s director of investments Matthew Drennan forecast the  benchmark index will rise to between 4100 and 4200 points by December 31, while Platypus expects it to reach 4500 points by the end of the year.

Mr Smith says a 4170 point finish to the month of June is on the cards if bullish sentiment surrounding resources stocks translates into earnings upgrades by analysts.

Mr Drennan said negative economic news from the US, higher domestic unemployment and a fall-back in consumption spending could buffet the market over the next six months and prompt a correction.

“It (the downwards correction) may even be up to 10 per cent over the next three to six months on a trend of a few bad economic numbers in a row.”

Corporate earnings results due in the September quarter may pull another dark cloud over the market and as outlook comments were analysed, Platypus Asset Management chief investment officer Donald Williams said.

“If they come out and say things are still weak and it’s too hard to call how things will play out in the next six to 12 months, then maybe that will be the trigger for a correction.”

Source: http://business.smh.com.au/business/market-tipped-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-20090604-bw9z.html

Research ASX200: Dexus Property Group (DXS)

StoneBridge Snapshot -Dexus Property Group (DXS) $0.75

• DXS operates under a stapled security structure and is an owner, manager and developer of a high quality portfolio of office and industrial properties valued at approx. $9bn at 31 December 08.
• Notable properties include the Governor Phillip and Governor Macquarie Tower complex, 30 The Bond and Australia Square in Sydney, Woodside Plaza in Perth, and 360 Collins Street in Melbourne.
• 98% of the groups operating earnings are derived by rent from the investment property portfolio and 1H09 income grew by 1.5% on a like for like basis which we saw as a reasonable result in view of difficult operating conditions. The portfolio WALE is 4.8yrs and current occupancy sits at 93.1% (Office 98%, Industrial~90%).
• Geographically assets are weighted 70% to Australia, 26% US, 4% Europe and by sector 50% Office (with 94% of these assets rated A-grade or premium), 47% Industrial and 3% Retail.
• The average portfolio cap rate was 7.4% at 31 December 08, falling from 6.7% at 30 June 08 (8% asset value decline in total) and 6.4% at the peak in December 07.
• DXS has spent the last six months focused on balance sheet and liquidity management via completion of a $749M capital raising in late May @ $0.65/security which followed a $313M institutional placement @ $0.77/security in December 08 and is now well placed on our estimates liquidity wise to meet its refinancing and capital commitments out until December 2010, which would be enhanced by any asset sales executed.
• Balance sheet metrics are sound and well within covenant limits with Gearing post raising 28.8% v 55% covenant limit (Borrowings/Total Tangible Assets excl derivatives) and interest cover 3.2x v 2.0x covenant limit Valuation metrics around DXS are attractive by virtue of it trading at a 33% discount to the post raising NTA of $1.14/security and on an implied cap rate of ~10% v 7.4% book.
• If cap rates soften 50 pts to 7.9% DXS NTA falls to $1.03/security and at 8.4% (200pts from peak) NTA is estimated at $0.93/security.
• FY10 EPS guidance 8.4c/security (P/E 9.0x) with DPU guidance 5.9c/security (yield 7.9%).

View Dexus Property Group (DXS) Research

A Closer Look at the 200-Day Moving Average

One of the quick-and-dirty tools used to technical analysts is to see where a stock or index is compared with its average price over the past 200 days. This is an easy way to get a read of a stock’s momentum.

Yesterday was a big day for the 200DMA world. The S&P 500 closed above its 200DMA for the first time since December 26, 2007. That closed out the index’s longest run below its 200DMA according to my records which go back to 1932.

That streak, however, is still well short of the longest run above the 200DMA which ran from November 1953 all the way to May 1956. Since the index has gone up over the time, the “above” streaks tend to be longer than the “below” streaks.

On November 20, 2008, the S&P was a stunning 39.6% below its 200DMA. That’s the biggest discount on my records. The only thing that comes close is the reading from this past March.

So does the 200DMA work? The evidence suggests that it’s a pretty good indicator of future price performance. When the S&P 500 has been below the 200DMA, it’s dropped a total of about 20% over the equivalent of 27 years. In other words, the S&P 500 has been below its 200DMA about one-third of the time.

Historically, the best time to invest has been when the S&P is less than 1.7% below the 200DMA.

When the index is above the 200DMA, well, then everything looks much brighter. All of the market’s gain and then some have happen when we’re above the 200DMA which occurs about two-thirds of the time.

The market seems to like nearly every point of being above the 200DMA. Danger only clicks in when the S&P 500 is over 17.5% above the 200DMA which is a very high reading.

Source:Edelfenbein

Oil Up 99% In 75 Trading Days

Oil has rallied more over the last 75 trading days than it did at any time during its entire bubble run from 2001-2008.  In fact, its current rally of 99% since the February 12th low is nearly double the highest 75-day rally during the last oil bull (From December 2001 to April 2002, oil rallied 55% over 75-days.)  Oil has also gone from $33.75 to $67.75 in just 75 trading days.  During the 2001-2008 oil bubble, it took 409 trading days to complete the same task from January 2004 to August 2005.  While many investors are arguing that oil’s rally is a good sign for the global economy and equity markets, let’s hope it doesn’t keep up the pace, or else we’ll be right back to $150 in no time.

Source: Bespoken Research

Tips To Make Money In Trading Stocks Online

There are many people who have been successful in making money from online stock trading. The following 5 tips will really help you improve your Trading.
1 – Candlestick Chart reading in stock trading is the most beneficial step for the traders to trade efficiently. By becoming skillful in the activity of reading charts, candlestick charts in particular, you can easily weed out the stocks that will move up or down, depending on other factors of course.

2 – Make a habit of setting stop losses whenever you trade or else your entire account will get knocked down pretty quick. You should always proceed by cutting your losses early and by allowing the winners to ride. This is one of the tactics of the successful stock trader.

3 – You should never purchase a stock that is dropping and think that it will increase suddenly after you purchase it. You should always opt for the stock that is constantly moving up and will keep on touching the heights. Therefore, you should get rid of a myth “buy low and sell high” from your mind. Its buy high and sell higher.

4 – You should never give an importance to the news. It is recommended you work independently while trading online. This is because there are frequent ups and downs in the stock market and by the time news reaches you, it’s too late. Therefore, it is recommended that you should always work with your brain instead of trading by using someone else’s brain.

5 – You should always search for the best broker. Keep in mind also that it should be a reputable broker, and not one of these fly by night outfits offering these outrageously low commissions. Beware.

These five stock trading tips will really help everyone to their goal of hitting the jackpot while trading stocks online.

Source: Trade with Skill

Oil Continues to Outperform Oil Stocks

Oil continues to rally on a daily basis and it is now up to $65/barrel after getting down to the $30s just a few months ago.  At the same time, oil stocks have lagged the commodity pretty significantly.  Below is a historical chart of the ratio between oil stocks and oil.  When the line is rising, oil stocks are outperforming oil, and when the line is falling, oil is outperforming oil stocks.  When oil tanked at the end of 2008, the ratio spiked like it never had before.  Since the ratio peaked, however, it has fallen nearly as fast as it rose.  The current ratio is right near its average over the last 7 years, but it is “oversold” based on recent action.  At some point this ratio is bound to reverse as oil stocks begin to catch up with the commodity, the commodity begins to pulls back in, or both.

Source: Bespoken Research

David Fuller : Substantiating bullish bias for equities

“I have described conditions as being more bullish than bearish for a number of months. However such claims need to be substantiated by technical (market) evidence, which is best monitored every day.”I will review the process, discussed at length in Fullermoney, in what can be a template for subscribers, not only for today’s environment but also the transition from every other bear to bull market in future:

“Climactic capitulation – Bear markets usually end in climactic fashion, which is the phase of greatest capitulation and despondency. This is what happened late last October and also in November.

“Base building – The most persistent capitulation stage marks the beginning of the end for the bear market, which by definition, must also be the beginning of the new bull market, although all one may see for some months will be ranging, including some new lows by indices for less fundamentally attractive markets, but also rising lows by indices for the next bull market’s leaders.

“Reversion to the mean – If the bear really is ending or over, you will see the evidence accumulate in several ways, which are different from the redistribution bear market rallies which occur on the way down. Mean reversion (we use the 200-day moving average to measure this because it is a widely followed medium to somewhat longer-term trend smoothing device) will become evident due to a combination of different developments.

“Uptrends are established – Indices will be breaking up out of their ranging bases, with the best performers establishing step sequence uptrends, one above the other. These will eventually break above the 200-day MAs, which will eventually turn upwards sometime later. The rising MA becomes a potential support level during minor mean reversions throughout the duration of the new uptrend.

“Summary – Perspective is gained by monitoring many indices, as there will inevitably be leaders and laggards. This is Fullermoney’s commonality approach. For instance, if stock market indices are mostly ranging but downward breaks are no longer being maintained, in contrast to some rallies which are being extended, one does not need to be a genius to deduce that demand (buying pressure) is beginning to exceed supply (selling pressure).

“The performance of upside leaders when looking for evidence of market bottoms and recovery potential is much more important than focussing on laggards, because we are looking for a transition from bear, which includes all stock market indices in its latter stages, to bull in which case markets will break away from the prior downtrend one by one over time.”

Source: David Fuller