ASX Stock and CFD Report 2-7-09

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The SFE Futures were up 16 points overnight. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight, up 1.41% and 0.07%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3432c, up 42c on last night’s close. Metals well up – Copper up 2.53%, Nickel up 7.36%, Zinc up 3.02%, Aluminium up 2.19%. Oil price down 50c to $69.32. Gold up $13 to $941. Up 1.5%. Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.544% up from 3.523%. A$ up to 80.91c. VIX Volatility Index down 0.49% to 26.22.

Generally weak economic numbers with the ADP Employment report (a lead indicator for the main jobs numbers tonight) coming in below expectations. Construction spending also came in below expectations but the market seemed to take more notice of a slightly better than expected ISM Manufacturing report (sixth monthly gain on the trot) and slightly better pending home sales numbers. Financials down 0.5% – one of the worst sectors. Energy sector up 0.2%….was up 2.0% at its peak following a rise and fall in the oil price after higher than expected crude inventory numbers.

Commodities up on a weaker US$ after China said it would like to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week’s G8 meeting (got to say….its not as if the world would trust any reserve currency involving the yuan).The US Dollar Index dropped 0.6%. CRB Commodities index up 0.5% on June Chinese factory index data suggesting the upcoming Chinese June quarter GDP stats would be OK (released mid July). Metals also helped by the Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which was up to 53.2 (seasonally adjusted) in June, from 53.1 in May.

The market is up 23. We were up 36 at best. The SFE Futures were up 16 points overnight. Quiet day on the news front. The May trade deficit has come in at a bigger than expected minus $556m compared to expectations for a number of minus $125m. The deficit is up 97% on April.

ASX Stock and CFD Report 30-6-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 41 point rise in the market this morning. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight, up 1.43% and 2.84%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3430c, up 40c on last night’s close. Metals mostly down – Copper up 1.24%, Nickel down 0.01%, Zinc down 1.48%, Aluminium down 0.25%. Oil price up 3.34% or $2.31 to $71.47. Gold down 30c to 940.70. Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.4920% down from 3.5060%. A$ up to 80.78c. VIX Volatility Index down 2.24% to 35.25. Tech stocks up 0.7%. Nasdaq underperformed.

Oil price up a big 3.4% on suggestions the Chinese want to boost oil reserves by 160% and on continued Nigerian oil supply disruptions. Nigerian militants haveeffectively shut a field operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc. The rise came despite the IEA (International Energy Agency) cutting their 5 year oil demand forecasts through to 2013.ADP Employment report for June is out tonight and will give us a lead on the jobs numbers on Thursday. Also have US consumer confidence and ISMManufacturing Report tonight. Alcoa Inc – which reports its June quarter earnings next week – was the only Dow universe stock to fall on the day. Sugar prices surged to highs last seen some three years ago, as speculation mounted that output in the all important Indian market could fall short of current expectations on the back of below-average rainfall. Sugar prices are now 50%+ above levels seen in October.

The market is up 59. The SFE Futures predicted a 41 point rise this morning. Both JB Hi-Fi and Caltex Australian have hit a fresh 52 year high. Retailers dominating the headlines today after a David Jones guidance upgrade. Australia’s new home sales fell 5.7% in May from April but up 15% on the low in December. They were weaker than expected and suggest interest rate cuts are more likely. The Dow Futures suggest a 9 point rise on Wall St. tonight

ASX Stock and CFD Report 26-6-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 22 point rise in the market this morning. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight, up 3.08% and 1.78%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3475c, up 23c on last night’s close. Metals up – Copper up 1.67%, Nickel up 1.16%, Zinc up 2.21%, Aluminium up 1.54%. Oil price up 2.3% or $1.56 to $69.70 on some attacks on oil installations in Nigeria and on some interruptions to US refinery production. Gold up $5 to $939. Up 0.6%. Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.546% down from 3.685%. A$ up to 80.33c.VIX Volatility Index down 9.26% to 26.36.

Big bounce in bonds as they get through a record week for bond issuance with good demand. A $27bn US 7 year Bond auction went much better than expected. Another record week for bond auctions next week. The auction drew a yield of 3.33% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.82. Housebuilder Lennar up 17% on results as the US government stimulates the bottom end of the housing market.Great night for housebuilders on the back of the Lennar results. GDP number was better than expected. GDP Q1: Actual -5.5%, consensus -5.7%, prior -5.7%. The market was expecting an unchanged number.Energy sector strong on the rise in the oil price. CRB Commodities index up 1.4%.Nike down on results and the comment that global orders are down 12% on theyear.Initial jobless claims: Actual 627K, consensus 608K, prior 612K (revised from608K)

The market is up 50. The SFE Futures suggested a 32 point rise in the market this morning. Three trading days to do your tax loss selling or make that contribution to your super fundbefore the financial year end. You also need to get your cheques in to RIO for the rightsentitlement before Wednesday night and for Graincorp by Tuesday night. Rumours of a BHP bid continue – focus on Alumina today….up 8%. Now at 149c down from a recent peakof 172c.

ASX Stock and CFD Report 24- 6-09

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The SFE Futures suggest a 15 point fall in the market this morning. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight, up 1.56% and 4.06%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3399c, up 19c on last night’s close. Metals up – Copper up 0.9%, Nickel up 0.8%, Zinc up 1.15%, Aluminium up 2.01%. Oil price up 2.56% or $1.72c to $68.81. Gold up $3 to $924.Bonds up again – 10 year yield at 3.640% down from 3.693%.A$ up a bit at 79.38c. US$ down. VIX Volatility Index down 1.89% to 30.58.

Bonds up after a US$40bn 2 year note auction was well received and well bid for by international banks. There are $37bn of bonds being auctioned tomorrow. US$ had its biggest fall against the Euro in 6 weeks. US$ selling is coming ahead of the FOMC statement thought likely to talk about lower interest rates for an extended period of time despite the recent rise in Bond yields. Existing home sales up less than expected (but still up). Up 2.4% againstforecasts for 3.0%. Seen as a consequence of rising mortgage rates priced on bond yields. The 30 year mortgage rate is up from 4.78% to 5.42% in the last month. Financials up 1.7%. Citigroup up on a broker recommendation in high volume. Boeing down on a delay in the first flight of the 787 Dreamliner. Airlines down 1.5%. Existing home sales: Actual 4.77M, consensus 4.82M, prior 4.66M (revised from 4.68M) $40B 2-yr auction sees 1.151% with a 3.19 cover (average 2.74 this year) and a 68.7% indirect take (versus average 39.8% this year).

The market is down 18 compared to the 15 point fall the SFE Futures predicted this morning. The Dow Jones closed down 15. At least the pace of decline has pulled up after the 200 point fall on Wall St on Monday and the 121 (3.1%) fall in the ASX 200 yesterday (second worst fall since the March rally).

Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 22-6-09

International Markets

• Stocks take first weekly decline since May after a pullback in Oil and the mid week d’grade to the credit ratings on banks from the S&P.
• Weekly stats: Dow -3%, S&P500 -2.6%,
• Iron Ore: Vale agrees to cut contract prices with ArcelorMittal, the first agreement with European producer. Fines -28%, Lump -44%, Pellets -48%.
• Xstrata proposes ‘merger of equals’ with Anglo American. Combined mtk cap ~$68bn. Anglo less keen on the idea. Glencore who holds 35% of Xstrata is supposedly supportive of the merger. Speculation Vale may also be close to tie-up with Anglo.
• Oil declined after inventories rose 3.39bn bbl.
• Gold slight gains on USD decline. USD Index -0.8%.
• Copper first weekly decline since mid-may on speculation China re-stocking over.
• Bonds: US 10yr yields 3.78%
• Out this week: Watch for reports on home sales and durable goods on Wed. FOMC decision Thurs for clues on Monetary policy.

Stocks to Watch

BUY  Price                                                                                                                                                                                                  Target

IOF    $0.49 Uncertainty removed, debt pressure alleviated                                                                                                            $0.80

DXS   $0.77 Trading at 33% discount to the post raising NTA $1.14                                                                                              $0.93

CFX   $1.655 Strong revenue stream and low debt levels.                                                                                                                $1.85

LGL  $2.85 write down provides room for focus on production growth and exploration potential in Côte d’Ivoire.                                                                                                                                                                                                          $3.30

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