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Comming Soon – webIress
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webIRESS Benefits
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Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) Share Offer
To access this offer and for a copy of the prospectus including the application form, please contact Eden Hage at eden.hage@stonebridgegroup.com.au or on 07 5504 2141.
INDICATIVE KEY DATES
Prospectus lodged with ASIC 27 May 2010
Opening Date 10 June 2010
Closing Date 11 June 2010
Expected date for allocation of shares 18 June 2010
Expected date for despatch of holding statements 21 June 2010
Expected date for the quotation of the Company’s securities on ASX 24 June 2010Company Overview
Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:
• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins)
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Springsure Project (Bowen Basin) (acquisition to be completed on the date of successful close of the Offer);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).According to the Independent Technical Expert:
“The projects represent a diversified portfolio of genuine coal exploration targets located in the premium coal basins of Queensland with potential for a variety of coals including export thermal, PCI and hard coking qualities. The projects are mostly located close to existing rail infrastructure and present the opportunity to access multiple port facilities. Guildford has proposed a two year program of exploration on each of the areas held by the Company. The program is designed to define the coal resources to at least Inferred status by year one, although in several cases it should be possible that resources may be defined to Indicated and Measured status by year two.”
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ASX Stock Report 10-5-10
1. More volatility makes for busier times in the trading business. Last week we had a revision of 6% in our equities market, and today we’ve made back more than a third of those losses. All ords was up 114.8pts, all sectors up across the board with Resources and banks gaining >3% on ASX200.
- ASX200 4599.8 +2.66%
- SPI Futures 4610.0 +3.04%
- DJIA Futures 10,621 +286pts
2. NAB business survey -3pts, to +13 (>l-term average of +7). Business conditions -5pts to +8 and capacity utilisation flat at around 82% in April. Proof the intention of tighter RBA policy coming to fruition in business as well as consumers, putting a halt to prices.
3. ANZ job ads survey -1.2% in April, +14.9% on a p.a. basis.
4. Clearly best performers of the day where those hardest hit from last week RIO +5.69% CBA +4.74% WBC +24.96% LNG +25% BMN +22.73%
5. IPL results today stock was up ~3% by 10.20am. despite falling revenue -27.6%, an ~50% fall in Raw materials and -34% in operating expenses was the reason for the substantial +33% rise in profits (market expected NP $152.8M vs. actual NPAT $132.4M). Over the period a complete turnaround in operating cash flows from -$112.8M to +$79.2M and less capex on PP&E without diluting issued equity points to a successful year for the company financially. They have endured a very strong Australian dollar, lower fertilizer prices, a soft US economy and challenging business conditions. EPS basis the company is better off +22.4% YoY 8.2c HY FY10 vs. 6.7c HY FY09, and then again on a NTA $0.27 HY10 vs. -$0.14 HY09. Fertilizers revenue -21.4% HY10oHY09, explosives -31.9%. IPL has shifted focus and will benefit off leverage into the US market. The focus has changed in primary product from fertilizer to Explosives after their US private subsidiary took over Dyno Nobel, 16th June 2008. Explosives earnings mix 58% vs. 47% over HY10 from HY09. So far the company has projected sustainable earnings for explosives by CY12 US$204M. Currently under their ‘velocity’ program has provided US$96.9M in sustainable revenue. Velocity being the program from acquisition of Dyno Nobel and their strategy to implement a sustainable earnings generating explosives business. For this HY Velocity has returned 43% of US$60M capital injection. Market has on average begun to factor in the US$204M projection with broker consensus upgrades puts the stock back on and up-trend. Market expects impact of Super profits tax on IPL to be a reduction to earnings by ~5% from FY13 on Phosphate Hill mine but still uncertainty resides on any material impact. IPL $3.17 +4.28%
6. Peabody blaming uncertainty around the resources SPT for reducing their Macarthur bid to $5. WHC looks like the market preferred Australian coal producer. Stock has been very resilient to news over the RSPT trading flat over the week from the 3rd of May. WHC $4.96 +2.69% MCC $13.38 -2.26% GCL $11.73 -0.59% COK $0.435 +3.57% CEY $4.51 +2.04%
7. Xstrata has suspended a $30M copper exploration project in central QLD due to the RSPT.
8. Gold Prices getting resistance at US$1200/oz since +US$50/oz last week, slip below US$1200 for the first time since last week. NCM $31.44 -0.16% LGL $3.90 EAU $18.10 +0.22% SBM $0.27 +5.88%.
9. GPT AGM: report >90% occupancy rates at all levels (wholesale & office), gearing Dec 09 23.5%, investing $220M p.a., distributing 3c/share or 80% of realised operating income. No clear guidance given for the FY. Jono Senior (our property analyst) has given a list of diversified office trusts that have compelling price discounts to NTA. CDI $0.53 NTA 69c, DXS $0.79 NTA $1.01, IOF $0.605 NTA $0.80. Given the MGR offer for WOT we may have begun moving out of the discounting cycle for Office REIT valuations. GPT $0.555 +1.83%
10. Transurban group buys rights to Sydney’s Lane Cove tunnel. TCL $4.92; AIO $1.65 +3.13%; CEU $0.40 -1.23% offshore exposure – ITO $1.115 +3.72%; MAP $3.01 -0.99%; TOL $6.56 -2.96%. One can expect that fiscal money injections into infrastructure will only further circulate money in the industry and impact revenues across the board, conditional on the individual company’s performance. TCL in trading halt as they move to give a share purchase plan.
11. Webjet confirmed HY profit guidance, $5.2M. Trades at discount traditionally to industry Wotif PE +20x, however at a premium to market PE FY10 ~15.5x. A very effective entrance to NZ marketplace has put the company in good stead, however to model this for further international expansion would be insufficient as the NZ market would have quite different dynamics to say that of the US. The other concern in the short term would be the revision in discretionary spending; however given a competitive AUD encouraging international travel this may offset such issues. Webjet expects ~$5.197M NPAT for the 2H of this year, by my calculations the stock is trading on a PE 15.75x. This is still a ~21% discount to Wotif. The consensus is that WTF is cheap at FY10 PE 24.9x, & FY11 PE 20.8x. These facts included we can expect the performance of WEB to the end of this FY to remain above $2. WEB $2.14 +3.38% WTF $6.48 +4.01%
12. Rhetoric in the federal budget tomorrow will provide further insight into the government’s intention with business and the overall financial health of the Australian economy. We can expect there to be impacts on future earnings figures post the release of the budget tomorrow.
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ASX Stock Report 7-5-10
1. Plenty of action in the market today, poor offshore leads all ords -170pts after open. Seemingly the effect of resources tax now factored in as ASX200 material +>1% in mid trading but ended -0.5% as more selling came late afternoon.
- ASX 200 4480.7 -2.02%
- SPI Futures 4474.0 -2.16%
- DJIA Futures 10478 +21pts
2. RBA Policy Statement global recovery, most noticeably in Asia (ex-Japan) yet north Atlantic economies output three percent below previous peaks. Particular notice of Europe. Which raises the question of what about investments in Emerging Market securities? Or has the benefit been exhausted, and then you have to manage the limitations of operating in emerging markets like China v Google example. In terms of the domestic economy the RBA are certain the economy will continue to grow, after enduring a relatively mild impact of the global downturn. They are happy with private sector demand and household sentiment. The business sector has still a little uncertainty running through it, according to them. They expect business to remain cautious in their spending plans despite their general optimism of the future. I suppose putting aside the short term impacts in Europe and US, the real concern for markets may have not had come to the fore just yet, the question surrounds the ability of developed nations to be able to finance their debt funding when they come due in 2012. What will happen to credit markets if developed economies are incapable of running surpluses to fund their debt issues? But that is still some time to come, however does strengthen the argument for emerging market exposure long term.
Brazil, China, and India probably the most developed of the emerging markets, picking out Aussie stocks operating in these parts of the world: NSL; BDR; CGM; AXA; WOR; SGT
Then the riskier nations south East Asia, Indonesia, Thailand stocks exposed to the greater eco growth potential: KRL; QAN Jetstar; ATB; CBD
3. Alumina AGM reiterated guidance for annual profit expected 10% for 2010. Sentiment for global aluminium demand is quite positive. Norwegian aluminium group Norsk Hydro have had better then expected first-quarter results and expect demand in the market would group by 12% this year, other sources forecast output 39mmT p.a. compared with 37mmT in 2009. Alumina would argue that their scale globally would contribute to the 10% expectation, which is still not equivalent to prior 2008 levels. Leads from LME aluminium prices overnight -0.8%. Lead, platinum and Nickel all better performing, gold -0.54% over the day. Gold/silver pairs trade on short Gold fundamentals. USD strength, risk transference to US treasuries. AWC $1.58 -0.32%
4. Bauxite Resources an alternative Aluminium trade. From the company’s quarterly activities report it is evident they are still establishing resources however have performed extremely well +643% from October 07 to Sep 09. They are winning contracts, continuing to drill and have begun shipment of bauxite and alumina or aluminium oxide. Both key components of aluminium production. BAU stock has come back from $1.30 25th Sep 09 when the company raised $57M equity to fund infrastructure development. BAU $0.365 +4.29%
5. Equinox quarterly production report strong net income and production results from their African copper & uranium mines despite bad weather. Market has already factored the results in however for a smaller mining play the company does have plenty of potential upside. Brokers are divided on their outlook with the stock is +187% since 27th Oct’08 EQN $3.93 -1.01%
6. Karoon Gas have struck a gas well, finding enough gas to justify production testing. Exploration well off coast of WA drilled by JV ConcoPhillips. KAR $7.99 +14.14%
7. Telecom NZ expect to be near the lower range of EBITDA Guidance -1 to +2%. Payout ratio approx 90% of adjusted net earnings, nil discount on DRP. NZ Reserve Bank Governor yesterday was reported indicating there may be a rate rise by mid-year. Domestic investment still remains subdued and credit markets are still tight, however his statement indicated business was bruised but not permanently scarred. Reflecting a more positive outlook on the economy, whether or not this has a material impact on Telecom NZ is debatable. TEL $1.695 -1.17%
8. JB Hi-Fi confirms soft sales guidance for March and April however has no implication on the stock. JBH defensive stock which has held up in a depressed market. JBH $18.98 +1.12%
9. It is evident that unhedging domestic equities is a mid-term theme, however in the short term a rebound in the equities market is likely once taxes, interest rates priced in. Tonight US nonfarm Payrolls data will further indicate the relative strength in the US economy, one would expect. Given these factors there would have to be a correction in the AUD which would make export driven companies including domestic resources companies quite attractive.
10. To conclude, enjoy the weekend and wish your mother a happy mother day from all of us at StoneBridge Group.
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ASX Stock Report 6-5-10
1. Australian equities market is still correcting itself after the government’s proposal of a new mining tax and the sixth interest rate rise in eight months on Tuesday get priced in.
- ASX 200 4573.2 -2.16%
- SPI Futures 4559.0 -0.31%
2. Still plenty of volume in resources, banks also changing hands today.
3. ABS retail trade data March 0.3% < 0.5% expected. Aussie Dollar fell 40bps to 0.905/USD after release; AUD/USD was back to 0.9076 by 2pm. Factors contributing to consumer spending and the lower than expected retail sales data include rising interest rates, gasoline prices and the halt in government stimulus spending for the consumer.
4. ABS balance of goods as services, seasonally adjusted, March deficit $2.082B. Exports +2% imports +3%.
5. KPMG analysis of major banks’ results positive about the performance of our banks. The independent auditor attributes improvement in profits, reduced impairment charges and minimal impact of the global financial crises to their opinion of our banks. KPMG did note some have expressed disappointment with weaker-than expected interest margins from pricing competition in the mortgage market and admit wholesale funding costs remain a concern.
6. Big four banks have all passed on the 0.25% interest rate onto standard variable rates.
7. NAB the weakest of the banks reporting interim net profit -21.4% interim div 74c < expected 75c. The Company is in a better position when considering bad debts and is still quite optimistic on their outlook for the remaining of this FY.
8. Santos AGM – expects production for 2010 to be slightly below original forecast results in range 49-52Mbarrels of oil. They are confident of making an announcement for new customer on LNG JV in QLD, the company is happy to do away with 9% of an interest to attract a partner. Still happy with energy stock over hard assets, simply from the certainty of demand. STO $13.01 +0.77%
9. Aviva Corporation submitted an initial reserve report, offshore coal project in Botswana Africa. Probable reserve 895MT for run of mine. Completed required technical studies for registration as a sub-project of the Botswana Power Corp, as well as registering access to the Southern African Power Pool Network. SRK independent consultants RoM Coal reserve estimates 28yrs steady state production 10.02MTpa. “There is sufficient geological information to have the confidence to estimate the RoM Reserves in this manner.” AVA 0.094 +17.5%
10. Cougar Metals awarded a tender from Beadell resources for $2.5M 4-month drilling contract in Brazil. Beadell is operating an offshore gold mine, Ampari Gold mine in Brazil. Cougar’s existing diamond drilling rigs are brining in business worth now A$12M and gaining a solid reputation. The rig is expected to be on site at Ampari in two weeks. CGM $0.025 +8.7% BDR $0.16
11. Sims Metals positive outlook on scrap flows, subject to economic conditions. Expecting improvement in earnings, reported 3Q results scrap intake +3%. Have progressed from recording losses and writing off assets to making profits YTD 70.4M, 3Q Net Profit +30.4M. Global revenue -40% on poor scrap intake -4%, Sales in Europe also -2% a strong dollar also contributing to the offshore results. If you’re a believer in a turnaround especially in the US this may be a good stock to add to a portfolio, SGM $20.88 +2.6%
12. NBN Implementation study released to market today, still no clear outcome for Telstra. TLS +1% adding 1.78index pts to the all ords by lunch. The stock went up to $3.22 after the study was released the settled < $3.10. The independent study by McKinsey & Co and KPMG stated the $43B cost of the project is realistic. The study was based on the basis the government could build the network without the help of Telstra, but has recommended the government do a deal with Telstra to leverage off its vast infrastructure. The government will take public comment until May 27and expects to respond to the study mid-year. TLS $3.08 -1.6%
13. iiNet upgrades guidance range toward the upper end of previous range EBITDA $75-80M. Partnership with FetchTV, moving toward goal of 15% Market Share, 12.4% MS at present. IIN $2.74 +0.74%
14. Downer Telecoms secures first NBN contract to provide network design services for first release site pilot programme. More positive news for Downer, first set of Waratah trains to be delivered to NSW rail by the end of this CY. DOW $6.75 +0.45%
15. Myer is confident it will meet targets however cautious they may be about the 2H FY10. Target FY10 EBIT growth 10.7%, the stock has been heavily hit since floating last year at $4.10. MYR 3.16 -2.17% -5.36% MoM +1.27% QoQ DJS $4.46 -2.41% -5.6% MoM, -3.03$ QoQ. The majority of brokers are quite bullish the stock.
16. Brambles forecast flat full year revenue as it is yet to see sales growth from U.S. pallet pooling operations. A continued cautious outlook and concern over northern hemisphere economies that provide about 75% of revenue for the company lead the to finish BXB $7.13 -1.66%
17. Tomorrow the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy will be released and should give away further rational for the rate rise earlier this week. Along with AI Group HIA performance of construction index, first quarter productivity figures will be released in the US overnight.
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ASX Stock Report 4-5-10
1. This morning’s trade started with the remnants of yesterday’s resources selling but what really tipped the scales was the RBA decision to raise interest rates by a further 25bps, the six interest rate rise in eight months. Reflective of the strength in the Australian economy, however not helping the market gain any.
- ASX200 4737.1 -1.01%
- SPI Futures 4744.0 -1.06%
2. Stone bridge flow today in M2 Communications as the stock comes back on the board in late trade after raising $20M. Interestingly enough a lot of institutional buying in the market today.
3. The statement from Governor Glen Stevens on the RBA decision to raise the cash rate to 4.5% was based on better than expected global growth. Improved global financial market functions. Domestically the terms of trade have rebounded quicker than expected, credit conditions both at a personal level and business level have improved and inflation declining but not as much as earlier forecasts. The RBA maintain there 2-3% inflation target.
4. CBA-Australia Chamber of Commerce and Industry business expectations March quarter rose to 63.69pts from 62.7. +35pts YoY
5. Consolidation in the resources sector again a theme of today with Lihir directors have unanimously recommended shareholders vote in favour of the improved $9.5B Newcrest Mining deal. Peabody energy also demanded greater access to Macarthur Coal after having completed due diligence and admits the Governments planned tax changes could impact the deal.
6. Lihir have accepted a revised offer from Newcrest, entitling Lihir stock holders 1NCM share for every 8.75 LGL stock held. + Unchanged 22.5c/share cash. Represents a +6.4% improvement to the initial deal offered last month. LGL +3.8% NCM -3.99% post announcement. Interesting is the speed at which the offer was revised given the outcomes of Henry Tax Review outlined yesterday and their respective effect on revenue projections.
7. Westfield confirms distribution forecast 64c/share 70-75% of operating income after recording better than expected sales. Near full occupancy of 99.5% & reversing the decision to put development projects on hold, projecting $1B spend on investment projects going forward 80% of which will be Australian based. {WDC $13.14 +0.08%}
8. Tomorrow ABS buildings approval data along with the CBA performance of services index for April will provide further detail into the relative strength of the Australian economy. Also NWS and WBC will be reporting.
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ASX Stock Report 3-5-10
1. Outcomes of the Henry Tax Review proposed by the government yesterday have had a knee-jerk effect on the equity market today. BHP and RIO where down by 2.73% and 4% respectively in London. Then WHC -7.52%, BHP -4.42%, FMG -5.24%, NCM -3.29% MCC -6.92% and kept going & WHC -7.33% just after the open. We would expect the case for implementation of the reform a little more difficult longer term; however this did not excuse the market for factoring it in today and for there to be trading ideas off the back of the proposition. There is a case for excessive selling just as there is a case for unhedging Australian exposed projects.
- ASX 200 4785.5 -0.46%
- Futures 200 4795 -0.5%
2. In an effort to redistribute wealth and improve national savings The Resources Super Profit tax will discourage foreign capital inflow, increase tension between corporate Australia and the government and may even miss the resource boom altogether by the time it is implemented so the government is really shooting themselves in the foot by attempting to implement the reform.
3. The other thing to consider with the compulsory super contribution increase by 3% just how much of a contribution that will make to fund managers FUM and where that will in-turn get invested? The SG increase to 12% from 9% is planned to take effect by 2020 and set to add $85B to the national savings pool over the next decade.
BT Investment Management +9.09% $2.76 likely to get a lift from directors’ announcement special div 12.5c/share. Also increased interim div income from 3c to 5.5c/share. Reported Net profit +58% YoY today, remain cautious on remainder of 2010. NAB $27.90 -0.36% CBA $58.93 +0.72% AMP $6.30 +0.64% AXA $6.22 +0.48%
4. Signs in the economy are still strong. Australia’s manufacturing sector grew in April at its fastest rate since 2002 driven by building and infrastructure. The AIG – PWC performance of manufacturing index +9.3pts to 59.8 MoM. Textiles, basic metal products, food and beverages helped drive the rebound while clothing and footwear dragged. A sub-index of employment rose 7.3pts to 55.2.
5. Transfield investor day did not give much away in terms of guidance, the company expecting flat to moderate profit growth for the FY10. However the company did confirm it won a tender for $185M JV 5-yr contract for maintenance to the AGL jointly owned Loy Yang Power station in Victoria State on Thursday. Some strong offshore contracts (35% of revenue for 1H FY10 offshore) and outlook to pursue expansion in Canada, Chile and US stock was +1.5% by 2pm. (TSE $4.04 +1.51% at close)
6. BLY $0.35 +6.06% Boart Longyear upgrades guidance citing global pickup in demand for drilling rigs and services. Revenue for Year to Dec.31 expected +33%. EBITDA forecast +76%, previously revenue growth 15%.
7. Crippled PPP train development deal for Downer EDI gets some certainty in it today with the company stating it is well underway for the waratah NSW rail set expecting the first full set to come into service by late 2010.0 (DOW $7.05 +0.71%)
8. WorsleyParsons Ltd 50:50 JV with US company Fluor Corp to provide services on the US$18.8B Alcoa and Saudi Arabian mining and refinery operation for aluminium. (WOR $26.68 +0.11%)
9. Orica HY NPAT $55M down 75% YoY. The reduced year-on-year half year profits had been anticipated, news that DuluxGroup will be split from the consolidated company into a stand-alone business and strong outlook on the remainder of the year helped to boost stock price +3.59% by lunch. (ORI $27.48 +3.89%)
10. House prices in capital cities +20% on the year to March. Melbourne +27.7%, Sydney +21%. Price index for established houses for the weight average of the eight capital cities +4.8% during the March quarter > expectations of 3%.
11. Elders write-downs in excess of $136.9M in forestry assets for FY 2010 (ELD $1.165 -2.51%)
12. Commonwealth property office upgrades distribution guidance +4.8%. (CPA $0.935 +0.54%)
13. M2 Communications completes acquisition of Clever Communications. Expects the deal to deliver a min additional to EBITDA of $2.3M or 2.2x.
14. Despite being the number one domestic budget carrier VBA downgrade guidance to earnings for FY10 stating weaker passenger demand the major factor contributing to the outlook. The airline’s strategic alliance with Air New Zealand adds value to their trans-Tasman traffic flow. Stock is down 6% given the guidance. QAN -0.7%. Domestic flight numbers where weaker than international for both companies so QAN may have a natural hedge on the fact they have a superior international flight paths. {VBA $0.55 -7.56% ; QAN 2.82 -0.7%}
15. TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge +2.9% for twelve months to April – rent, fruit & veg’s all contributing to the adjusted index reading. The jury is still out on the outcome of the RBA Board Meeting tomorrow. Financial markets have priced in the probability of a rate hike tomorrow from 25% to now 65% over the course of a week.
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ASX Stock Report 30-4-10
1. Australian stocks where up +0.7% helped by strong equity markets abroad and fears of European nations’ fiscal woes subsiding. Some strong reporting from ResMed and Macquarie supported the days trade, property and financials the strongest sectors +1.94% & 0.81% respectively. Energy sector also performed well +1.14%,
- ASX 200 4807.4 +0.46%
- SPI Futures 4819 +0.31%
- Futures 11122.0 -13pts
2. Private sector credit +0.5% during March > than expectations 0.4%. RBA results indicate Year to March private credit +2.1%. Housing credit +8.5% over the year other personal credit +0.5%, business credit 0.1%. This puts a little more certainty into markets.
3. Domestic Property Prices +4.2% in March Quarter in major cities. RP Data Rismark Hedonic Home Value index, released on Friday, said property prices in the capital cities rose by an average 12.5% in the year to March 31. Given independent directors of Westpac Office Trust have today recommended the offer from MGR to unit holders makes for interesting prospects. Jonathan Senior pointed out this morning the abundant better financially positioned office REITS to invest in.
The other thing was the smaller residential property REITS and developers, GPM is trading at 50% discount to NTA. Has Trojan Equity as major s/h who are winding up their fund, John Leaver has a big stake he is an x-broker. Our analysts values sum of parts ~45c. FKP is more liquid. Moving closer to fair value. Last valued at 73c, which was then ~43% discount to book value ($1.27).
4. MQG $50.29 +4.01% reported Net Profit $1.05B year to March 31. +20% YoY. In-line with expectations. Nicholas Moore expects operating conditions to continue into the remainder of the FY.
5. RMD up 5.83% at $7.08, hits record high of A$7.12 to be the top performer in the S&P/ASX 200 after 3Q results beat consensus expectations. EPS rose to 63 cents on revenue of US$287.7 million vs market expectations of 57 cents EPS on US$270.5 million revenue. We liked this stock on the fact that revenue streams where exposed to the US >70% EBIT FY10. Now there is even more reason to get behind the stock, expecting a break out over $7.00.
6. MAP $3.14 +0.96% bairports still reporting stronger traffic numbers and many expecting above trend traffic numbers to continue. ITO $1.125 was reporting solid traffic numbers as well. the stock’s strength representative of a recovering Canadian and Australian economy. Yesterday VBA $0.595 +0.85% noted they where in talks with Air New Zealand for a strategic trans-Tasman alliance which will add value.
7. Retailer Woolies $27.10 +0.71% have lowered forecast sales growth given cyclical impact of government stimulus payments twelve months ago. More competition in the market from Aldi and now Cosco will eat away at profits but in all honesty you will not be buying this stock long term on sales growth forecasts. You will buy this stock for solid div income, people will always go down to buy their groceries at Woolies & oil prices are also helping petrol sales +3.8%.
8. We are still very bullish NWS $19.44 +0.41%. Another pretty safe bet for consumer spending. Again US earner, superior content. Chart speaks for itself. Stock is a conviction buy.
9. Origin $16.38 +1.8% updating production and sales revenue for the March Quarter. Oil prices and currency forecasts have lifted broker forecasts.
10. The banks reporting season has been relatively consistent with market expectations thus far. Next week the RBA will meet to discuss rates, we don’t expect a change given conditions at present, unless there is some material impact on debt markets from the weekend we would anticipate no change to the cash rate. Over the weekend findings from the Henry Tax Review will be released, WBC and NAB will also report next week.
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ASX Stock Report 29-4-10
1. Spot Gold, USD holding prices, as Euro begins to recover but late selling closer to European markets opening suggests something else.. Asian markets followed the same trend starting stronger but finishing down, Dow futures are +3pts. The Australian equities market finished -37.2pts. Australian stocks -0.5% in morning, European sovereign debt issues not settling, money flows away from our equities market and our dollar early but dollar finished stronger +0.04% to US. ANZ disappoints reporting distributions -3c than expected. Financials and materials down >1%. Macquarie Bank will report tomorrow, NAB and WBC next week.
- ASX 200 4785.6 -0.77%
- SPI Futures 4793.0 -0.19%
2. ANZ report cash profit for 1H FY10 A$2.3B, in line with expectations. To pay interim div of 52c/share, 3cents less than consensus expectations. Mike Smith is cautions on credit outlook, professing European sovereign debt issues have created volatile credit markets. The company is still willing to expand into Asia but expects lower global economic growth than was experienced last decade. Confident Can Meet Target Of 20% Revenues From Asia By 2012
3. Plenty of StoneBridge Group flow in BHP and TLS for retail clients.
4. Arrow Energy: reporting production no material impact considering corporate activity overshadowing the stock. Cash 3Q Total Sales A$42.2M, Down 11% QoQ, Year To Date Net Gas Sales -3.8% YoY, Y-t-Date Net Gas Output 15,288 TJ, +19% YoY, Electricity Sales -15% 533,006 MWh,
5. API confirms previously provided guidance of $24.6 million for the full year, net profit after tax for the six months to February 28, 2010 of $10.33 million, up 54.5 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue grew 6.7 per cent to $1.85 billion. The company declared an interim dividend of one cent per share 5.3 per cent in Priceline health and beauty stores and comparable store sales growth of two per cent had been pleasing, given uncertain consumer confidence.
6. Coal Production reporting: Aquila Resources $10.25 +0.59% (no material effect): 3Q Year To Date Coal Sales 1.9M Tons, Eagle Down Feasibility Study To Start 2Q 2010, Cash Reserves A$342.6M At End 3Q no real deviation from expectations. Gloucester Coal $12.05 -0.41%: 3Q Coking Coal Sales Up 103% On Year again no material effect as market expected. GCL still had Peabody/MCC corporate activity outweighing performance on the stock.
7. ITO $1.125 +2.27% formally MIG Key results are: Year to date (YTD) underlying proportionately consolidated revenue and EBITDA from road assets increased 6.4% and 12.2% respectively. Weighted average traffic for the quarter ended 31 March 2010 increased by 5.0% to the prior corresponding period (pcp). YTD weighted average traffic increased 2.4% compared to pcp. Intoll owns and manages interests in two toll roads – 407 ETR, Toronto, Canada and Westlink M7, Sydney, Australia. March quarter revenue numbers where higher than market expectations reflecting improving economic conditions in Australia and Canada. Catalyst for further share price moves being the sale process for Ferriovial’s 10% stake.
8. Asciano $1.71 -0.58% port activity has indicated container volumes rebounding faster in the March quarter than previously expected: 3Q Pacific National Intermodal Haulage Up 10% On Year. Continue To Take Cautious View On Remainder Of This FY. 3Q Patrick Container Ports Container Lifts Up 1% On Year To 435,000, 3Q Pacific National Coal Haulage Up 33% On Year
9. Skilled $1.36 CEO Greg Hargrave will step down after taking responsibility for poor performance. Skilled likely to miss earnings by 15%.
10. VBA $0.59 0.85% has been voted best domestic airline in a poll by Choice a leading consumer group. Regional carrier Rex was ranked second on the strength of its old-fashioned and more personalised service, while Qantas came third overall. Budget airline Tiger took out last place criticised for flight delays and its slow check-in process. Jetstar, which was ranked second-last, also came under fire for flight delays, and for its cramped seating. VBA said yesterday they had been in talks “for several months” but the discussions had so far not resulted in an agreement. Three out of four larger broking houses have recommended a buy on the stock post the announcement. Reasons include economies of scale and cost saving produced by the alliance, stronger trans-Tasman relationship and a catalyst for further upside in the JV between V Australia and Delta airlines.
11. Atlas Iron AGO.AX fell 6.7 percent to A$2.51 after it said it was going to raise A$63.5 million with a share sale to institutions, priced at A$2.49 a share, to help fund a big increase in iron ore production and shipments.
12. Sedgman wins Narrabri Coal CHPP $50m plus contract
13. Transfield Services $4.02 +2.29%: WorleyParsons JV Awarded Loy Yang Power Contract anticipates $185M from the business. Loy Yang Power Maintenance Contract For 5 Years.
14. Biotech firm Biota Holdings -22.98% after warning that royalties on its flu drug Relenza would fall 70 percent in the March quarter.
15. Mirvac have offered 0.597:1stock or 86cents for friendly takeover of Westpac office trust. Jonathan Senior our property expert has outline best smaller player picks FKP $0.845 better liquidity, GPM $0.225 -6.25%, DVN $0.325 +1.52%. All trending upward, have institutional support (GPM Trojan, John Leaver DVN – LEI, & FKP Paradice), exposed to domestic residential housing market.
16. Following on from this morning and our discussion on gold stocks, Catalpa announced today its first gold production. The gravity and carbon recovery circuits were commissioned last week, resulting in the first production gold pour of 414 ounces of dore. The dore is an alloy of gold, silver and other metals and is expected to refine to approximately 85% pure gold. Managing Director, Bruce McFadzean said ramp-up to full production capacity of 2.8Mtpa is underway and will see Catalpa producing gold at a rate of more than 130 000 ounces per annum by July this year from Edna May and 30% Cracow.
17. Tomorrow we have House price & private credit data being released domestically, GDP and employment figures coming out of the US which will add to both the RBA & the FOMC conclusions on MP respectively. RBA meet next Tuesday. FOMC stated US rates will remain between 0-0.25% for some time to come. ResMed is a company we have touched on; who have global operations will also be reporting tomorrow. More specifically 50% of earnings from the US, & 35% from Europe so it will be interesting
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ASX Stock Report 28-4-10
1. As the EU falls apart, international equity markets experience capital outflows as investors lose confidence in global markets. Gold $1,172.30 highest since Dec. 4th, USD & JPY started higher both perceived as safer currencies. By the end of trade today the Euro began clawing back as did other currencies, DJIA Futures +0.07%. We can hope for a better day’s trade ahead.
• ASX 200 4822.8 -1.17%
• SPI Futures 4826.0 -1.19%
2. Stonebridge flow for retail investors on the buy side for BSL and the sell side for RIO. Instos saw some good flow in gold stocks.
3. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle argues the debt crises in Greece & Portugal has little effect on the Australian banking system, despite its effect on global sentiment and risk appetite. Our banks are all reporting results in coming weeks, starting tomorrow with ANZ. You can expect them to be better than expected, with money back in the economy and asset prices coming back, spreads on mortgage lending rates are still solid and there being a lack of competition in the industry meaning less profit sharing. The average s.v.m. rate 7.13% where they borrow in overnight cash market at a rate of 4.25%. A good margin. Our banks are perceived by the global investment community as operating on solid foundations and would be in most cases a solid buy at present.
4. ABS weighted median CPI used by RBA to track underlying inflation +3.1% on Year, +0.8% QoQ. Australia 1Q CPI +2.9% On Yr; Consensus +2.8%, 1Q CPI +0.9% On Qtr; Consensus +0.8% Australian 3-Year Futures Down 0.02 To 94.71 After CPI Data. Federal Treasure Wayne Swan commented this afternoon on the outlook for inflation remaining moderate in the near term as it was over 2009, with reference to the CPI figures. The government focus will be on building capacity and sustaining low inflation, Really what is he saying? Inflation is low – so interest rate risk fears may subside.
5. ROC $0.455 -1.09% Oil: Sales Revenue worse than expected US$49.3M In March Quarter, Down 3% From Previous Quarter; Operations Have Continued To Perform Well
6. Whitehaven Coal $5.46 -3.19%: 3Q Saleable Coal Output 853,000 Tons, Up 12% On Year, 3Q Saleable Coal Output 853,000 Tons, Up 12% On Year, 3Q Coal Sales 1.1M Tons, Up 5% On Year, Cash On Hand A$164M At March 31
7. MAP $3.09 -2.83%: Brussels Airport 1Q Revenue Up 4.5% On Year*DJ, Brussels Airport 1Q Underlying EBITDA Up 16.5% On Year, Brussels Airport 1Q EBITDA EUR37.6M, Up 19.4% On Year
8. Beach Energy $0.805 -1.83%: FY10 Output Guidance 7.4M BOE; Cut On Cooper Basin Flooding, 3Q Revenue A$102.3M, Down 24% On Quarter, 3Q Output 1.725M BOE, Down 11% On Quarter,
9. Macarthur Coal $15.90 -0.87%: Confident Of Meeting FY Sales Guidance Of 4.8M-5.0M Tons*DJ Macarthur Coal: Demand For Metallurgical Coal Strengthened During Quarter, 3Q Total Coal Sales 1.23M Metric Tons
10. David Jones $4.72 -0.63%: Quicksilver, Roxy Children’s Apparel To Be Sold
11. QBE $21.59 -1.19% Still Has Significant Allowance Of About A$810M For Remainder Of 2010, Estimated Large Risk, Catastrophe Claims For Year To Date A$470M
12. ANZ reporting tomorrow, MQG on Friday & WBC NAB next week. NWS is also reporting next Wednesday. Federal Reserve has started its first day of a two-day meeting for monetary policy making in the States. Austerity measures in the EU may still be a major concern for equity markets. We can only wait to see what will happen abroad tonight.
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ASX Stock Report 23-4-10
1. Weak lead from Europe, early selling overdone as market gets some buying back into it throughout the middle of the trading day. Then post 1pm selling again into the later afternoon RBA Governor Glen Stevens’ commentary on economic outlook impacts on the dollar.
- ASX 200 4881.5 -0.53%
- Futures 200 4871 -0.16%
- DJIA Index Futures 11,056 -12pts, FTSE 100 Futures 5,632.00-48pts
2. Portfolio managers heavy on the buy side with LGL $3.95 +0.77%, QBE $21.62 -0.83% & STO $13.83 -0.93%, insto support on GPM $0.225 +7.14% and good flow in NWS $19.86 -0.2%, FMG $5.01 -1.38%, ORG $16.42 -0.18%. Lihir reported production guidance today which was positive; QBE and NWS are internationally exposed plays. Something we believe will be a competitive advantage to business at present.
3. Glen Stevens has today disclosed to the market a more supportive stance on interest rates. Rates where now closer to the past 10-12yr average.
4. Inflation targeting is now on the agenda “The Board’s focus will be on doing our part to secure a durable expansion and on achieving the medium-term target for inflation,” he said. Demand for our natural resources has been putting price pressure on the market, Mr Stevens expects the terms of trade to revert back to average.
5. There has been 1.25% added to the cash rate since October ’09. Phrases like “sustaining durable expansion”, “pretty close to average” would suggest a more passive approach to monetary policy is imminent and the fact that the dollar slipped 15cents after his address at 1pm is a good indication that the market thinks so too.
6. We’re at the end of what seems to be a long cycle of extreme depressed economic sentiment. So what happens now? The argument for offshore trades is a good one we believe, as soon as growth and inflation filters into developed economies and their central banks begin to focus on contractionary monetary policy then foreign currency plays will be the go. For us especially in the US. We’ve already seen during the week the BoC become hawkish on policy stance in Canadian press interest rates suspected +50bps in June.
7. As discussed this morning NWS is the most striking US recovery play. UK mortgage approvals +2K over consensus suggesting greater demand in UK housing, Pound Sterling is trading at extraordinarily high rates, Californian house prices +23% from Feb09. LLC $8.81 -0.9% could be a good play here with 15% of earnings derived in the US and 28% in the UK.
8. We have an international focus but it does not mean that we lack the possibility to trade off opportunities down under, simply that the growth rate offshore will be marginally greater than what we experience in Aus. There is a time lag of recovery from more affected international developed nations.
9. Woodside Petroleum $46.31 -1.13%: 1Q Revenue US$1.03B, Up 43% YoY. Down 10% On 4Q09, 1Q Sales 18.7M BOE, Down 9% On Year, 1Q Sales 18.7M BOE, Down 9% On 4Q09, 1Q Output 19.2M BOE, Down 7% YoY, 1Q Output 19.2M BOE, Down 5% On 4Q09WOODSIDE Q1 PRODUCTION DOWN 5PCT ON PREV QTR AND 7PCT ON PCP,
10. Lihir +10% production guidance from 1MOz to 1.1MOz for full year guidance. 1Q Unit Total Cash Costs US$515/Oz, 1Q Aggregate Cash Costs US$118M, Down 5% On Prior Quarter, Lihir Island Expansion Continues On Schedule, Within Budget.
11. MCC $16.15 -0.19% opens doors for Peabody Due Diligence. Peabody have till May 3rd to carry out due diligence on their offer.
12. Housing Institute Australia blames skills shortages in housing sector for undersupply of residential property. HIA’s availability index -37.5% QoQ, trade prices index +1.1& in March.
13. Down under best smaller player picks FKP $0.855 better liquidity, GPM $0.225 +7.14%, DVN $0.335 +1.52%. All trending upward, have institutional support (GPM Trojan, John Leaver DVN – LEI, & FKP Paradice) and exposed to domestic residential housing market.
14. AMP NZ Office Trust: 3Q Rental Revenues +4.9%, 3Q Distributable Profit +11.9% On Year, On Track For Solid FY Performance After 3Q Result
15. Map $3.08 +0.33%: 1Q Sydney Airport Total Capital Expenditure A$30.8M, 1Q Sydney Airport Revenue A$228.6M, +12% YoY, 1Q Sydney Airport EBITDA A$187.1M, +13% YoY.
16. CSR $1.785 +5.62% Federal Court upheld appeal for them to split their sugar business –to be relisted as Sucrogen, from construction business carrying asbestos compensation liabilities. CSL $33.94 -7.27% discounted. Baxter International reports weakness on blood plasma-collection business in US. CSL is the second biggest provider of blood plasma products in the US, behind Baxter. CSL’s blood products business, CSL Behring, generates 42% of its revenue in the US, the US accounts for 37% of total earnings for CSL. CSL does not change guidance for FY.
17. In the week to follow hometrack housing survey from the UK & consumer confidence survey, US consumer confidence and mortgage apps could further add to developments on housing data below, as well as firm our views on international markets recovering. NAB business confidence survey, HIA home sales data and private sector credit could add to
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ASX Stock Report 22-4-10
1. Falling Car Sales, skilled vacancies, leading economic indicators domestic growth greater than expected and subsequent interest rate fears consumer staples -1.32% Gold +0.08% Oil+0.35% materials –1.42%. Look to international economy’s growth rates catching up to our own suggest a theme on international recovery. NWS $1990 -0.05% the strongest, Aristocrat to US recovery – DXS $0.795 -1.24% and IOF $0.60 +0.84% property exposed to US also. Domestic Residential property market still is an option on supply shortages. DVN$ 0.33, FKP $0.855 +5.56% and GPM $0.21 +2.44% getting some institutional support, smaller players trading at discounts to Book and NTA. Or you could play it with materials Boral $5.85 -0.51%, Brickworks $13.43 -0.3%, James Hardie $7.19 -0.83% – exposed to US, FBU $6.47 -0.61% global operator.
- ASX 200 4907.4 -0.95%
- SPI Futures 4907.0 (-)
- DJIA Index 11,045.00 -14pts
2. Wesfarmers: Retail Business Strategies On Track, Cautious On 4Q Outlook, Coles Experienced Deflation In 3Q Of Around 1%, 3Q results: Coles Sales +4.9% YoY A$6.92B Kmart Sales +4.0% At A$824M, Target Sales Steady At A$725M, Office Supplies Sales A$1.93B +7.9%, Bunnings sales +13% in 1H FY10.
3. ABS Car sales -2.7% (seasonally adjusted) in March YoY. Passenger vehicles +0.7%, QLD -5.5%. New Vehicle sales +19.2%.
4. Fletcher Building Scaling Back Production At Glasswool Insulation Plant In Melbourne, Confirms FY Guidance To Fall In Analysts’ Range Of NZ$278M To NZ$303M, FY Op Earnings For Australian Insulation Business Forecast At NZ$12M
5. Caltex $11.85 -3.42% 1Q profit $130M – STO $13.96 -1.76% long dated calls. Fundamentally on a switch from Metals to Energy.
6. NSL transitions to local management team in India; comprise of Country Manager, mines manager, Safety Quality Production Geology and Finance.
7. Coal of Africa $2.48 -0.8% AGM today – SDL $0.165 -2.94%. KRL $0.215 +7.5%
8. NewCrest $33.88 -0.26% cut annual Gold production forecast.
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ASX Stock Report 21-4-10
1. Themes of today, investors move back into risk & stronger than expected growth down under.
- ASX 200 4954.3 +0.58%
- SPI Futures (-)
- DJIA Index Futures 11090 +16pts
2. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations skilled vacancies March index +18.6%. Internet vacancies +12.7% in March, -2.9% YoY. By group; Trades up 2.4%. Associates +0.8%, Professionals -1.7%. 11/18 skilled occupations +. Marketing and Advertising +7.3%. Vacancies in WA +6.1%. Vic +0.3%, NT -9.4%. YoY WA vacancies +73.9%
3. Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of Australian Economy indicator for likely growth three to nine months into the future 7.2% Feb, well above l-term 2.8% trend. Fastest since 1997. Risk to upside on growth profile. Coincident Index up from 0.7% six months ago to 3.6% now. Above trend for a second month in a row.
4. What does this mean? Despite interest rates being a lagging instrument, the threat of more rate rises is sincere, even as early as May. Short interest rate sensitive (to the downside) stocks and buy calls over the market after this months expiry and closer to May 4th to mitigate time decay.
5. Gold +0.35%; BDR 0.165 +3.13% YTC 0.31 +1.64%; Oil +0.66% Gas +0.73% Coal – KRL 0.20 NSL NCR 0.38 +18.75%
6. Macquarie Atlas Roads 0.985 -1.5% Traffic + 1.2% YoY. TCL $5.25 +1.55% ITO $1.15 +1.77%
7. SEK $7.70 -0.65% on track to improve 2H FY earnings with job market improvement. Major competitors FXJ $1.765 +0.86%, NWS $19.91 +2%. Consumer Discretionary’s +0.86%
8. Carsales $5.57 +3.34% ARB Corp +6.04 +1.34% AHE $2.75 +0.73% SUL $5.09 +1.8%. ABS motor Vehicle sales data released for March.
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ASX Stock Report 20-4-10
1. Demand for risk comes filters back into our equities market today, still Gold spot +0.06%;
- ASX 200 4925.8 +0.22%
- SPI Futures 4929 +0.31%
2. RBA Board Meeting Minutes (rba.gov.au): “GDP growth 0.9 per cent in Q1 CY10, stronger than expected at the time of the February Statement on Monetary Policy. With some upward revisions to earlier quarters, growth in 2009 was 2.7 per cent. GDP growth supported by growth in public demand in 2009, with private spending quite subdued, but the staff forecasts envisaged a reversal in this pattern through 2010 and beyond
Developments in commodity markets meant that the increase in the terms of trade through 2010 was likely to be substantially larger than forecast in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Increases in coal and iron ore prices, along with the developments in the LNG sector, were also contributing to a strong outlook for investment in the resources. Housing Market Conditions Remain Buoyant – capital city price growth was +1% p.a. in early 2010, and auction clearance rates had remained high in March, especially in Melbourne. Household credit moderate growth +0.7%p.m. Forecast 2010 inflation 2.5%. Consistent with the medium-term target, the level of interest rates in the economy would be expected to be close to average.”
Australian Dollar Rises To US$0.9271 from US$0.9256 After RBA minutes released immediate signal to markets of the relative strength in the domestic economy compared to trading partners.
3. Interest Rate outlook (90-day bill) expecting +0.25% rate increase. Despite interest rate climate, is there sufficient evidence to suggest retail spending will not recover into the new FY? Housing prices improving household wealth, even the RBA is expecting greater private spend. Investors coming back into the housing market indicative of this. Rising rates should put pressure on our dollar, & therefore term of trade, however power of prices rests with suppliers of commodities at present.
4. Interest rate sensitive stocks, to the downside those highly geared eg utilities generally from high levels of debt funding necessary to operate. REITs also however benefiting from rising rent prices especially around major cities, remember as interest rates rise all other asset classes will be required to rise at the same rate to be compensated for holding the risk. GPM $0.205 FKP $0.815 +3.16% WDC $12.36 +0.9% Westfield exposed to US recovery.
5. Wesfarmers $31.47 -1.22%: To Merge Chemicals, Fertilizers, Energy Divisions: Restructure Costs Not Expected To Exceed A$10M Wesfarmers reporting sales Thursday, Car sales out Thursday also.
Car retailers. SUL $5.00 ARP $5.96 +1.02% AHE $2.73 +0.74%
6. Harvey Norman $3.38 -5.32%: 9-Month like Sales +1.4% YoY, 9-Month Sales +2.2% YoY, 3Q FY10 sales flat.
7. iSOFT $0.585 +0.86% agrees on UK deals worth $8 million
8. Pike River Coal $0.80: On Track To Begin Hydro-Mining In July-September Quarter, Production For Year To July 2011 Forecast At Approx 620,000 Tonnes, 2nd Export Shipment Of Hard Coking Coal Pushed Out To July 2010
9. Macarthur Coal $16.68 +0.85%: Hasn’t Received Proposal From Xstrata, Unlikely Gloucester $12.20 +0.83%/Noble Transaction Will Proceed In Current Form
10. Nufarm $7.75 Launches $250 Million Equity Raising
11. Junior Coal Miners KRL $0.20 +2.56%, SDL $0.16 +3.23%; Junior Gold stocks YTC $0.305 +3.39% BDR $0.16 +3.23%
12. ACCC blocks NAB decision to takeover AXA AP on grounds a new generation of investment platforms would allow them to corner market. ACCC note there are too many barriers to entry for AMP to enter market.
13. AXA APH SAYS Q1 WEALTH MANAGEMENT INFLOWS IN AUST +2%. Total Group FUM Stable At A$80.7B In March Quarter, Q1 sales growth Asia +57% AXA Asia Pacific: Wealth Management Inflows Up 2% To A$1.5B In March Quarter
14. Gloucester Coal: Independent Shareholders Take No Action On Macarthur Offer
15. Western Areas $5.36 -1.52%: On Track To Meet Forrestania Nickel Project Mine Production Targets, 2,990 Tons Nickel Produced At Flying Fox In 3Q, 67,072 Tons Nickel Mined At Flying Fox In 3Q, Tim King Pit At Spotted Quoll Expected To Produce About 2,500 Tons Nickel In June Quarter
16. Lynas Corp $0.53 +3.92%: First Concentrate Feed To Kiln In Malaysia Expected Early In 3Q Of 2011, Cost Of Phase 1 Of Concentration Plant, Malaysia Materials Plant A$339M
17. Seven Network: 88% Shareholders Approve Merger With WesTrac In Proxy Vote.
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ASX Stock Report 19-4-10
1. Contract wins & corporate activity are the only positives out of the market today as confidence spills out of US market over onto international equities market because of SEC Fraud charges to Goldman’s on mortgage related securities. USD index +0.26%, spot Gold +0.04%.
- ASX 200 4915.1 -1.4%
- SPI Futures 4914 (-)
2. Housing Industry Australia & RP Data research report, Median raw land price +2.2% to a record $185,222 4Q CY09 QoQ. Median land price +14%p.a. – fastest since Mid’04. New home price +2.8%, building material +1%, median prices by city/region: Sydney $275,000, Sunshine Coast $249,000, Gold Coast $241,000, Richmond Tweed $235,000 & Illawarra $197,500.
3. Flight Centre: $20.80 -2.8% Targets A$160M-A$180M Pretax Trading Profit For Year Ending June 30, Doesn’t Expect Temporary Airport Closures To Have Material Impact On Earnings, When European Airports Reopen Planes Will Operate At Full Capacity, Evidence Suggests Most Customers Want To Take European Holidays When Airports Reopen, Liaising With Airlines To Determine Holiday Options, Working To Accommodate Customers Who Were Enroute To Europe
4. QAN $2.92 -2.01% daily cost of grounding European flights $1.5M.
5. What should be factored into valuations’ growth rates when conducting business offshore are growth rates of international economies. Expected FY11 GDP growth issued by the Asian Development bank expect growth in India 8.7% (+0.5%), Indonesia 5.5%. Junior Mining stocks, despite the limitations of operating offshore – political and business practices discrepancies, move offshore to take advantage of underexplored resources.
KRL $0.195 Indonesian Coal, NSL Indian Iron Ore, In Africa SDL $0.155, CCC $0.57 +18.75%
Continental signs $US3B offtake EDF Trading over 20 yrs. First production 2H CY2011 2.4MTp.a. Thermal coal export
6. White Energy Company WEC $3.29 +21.85% bids $39.3M for takeover of South Australian Coal Ltd 500MT low grade coal reserve in SA. WEC specialists in converting low grade coal into high quality resource.
7. Excellence in Oil & Gas conference 1. Beach Energy $0.765 -1.92% – 2P reserves 66MMboe, FY 2010 production guidance 7.8M.Mboe, $118M cash no debt. Long-term growth Cooper basin resource, East African exploration acreage & Building LNG portfolio. 2.WestSide WCL $0.695 +6.92% $64.4M equity raising to fund acquisitions, CSG fields, Develop productions, and attain appraisals of further CSG tenements.
8. US rail is tracking +17% YoY March, +35% YoY for first two weeks of April. Dow Jones Transportation Index +1.7% Thursday 15th April. All indicators for distribution, logigistics and transportation stocks, those especially exposed to US.
AIO $1.80 -3.23% TOL $7.25 -2.42% ITO $1.105 -2.21% MRM $2.79 -1.06% TTI $0.034 +6.25% RIS $0.078
9. LEI $36.88 – 1.73% pulls out of Lane Cove tunnel bidding. Decmil Australia Ltd $1.79 +1.99% awarded $82Mil contract design & build 800-man accommodation village at Christmas Creek.
10. Teleco’s: aside from picking up contracts lie in a depressed market with share overhang over NBN issue. While the market overall absorbs confidence issues the Teleco’s space is already being discounted and holds prices. From the beginning of this CY daily returns:
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ASX Stock Report 16-4-10
1. Energy stocks and resource stocks took a beating, leaving our market +0.2% for the week. Commodity & oil prices not helping hopes for another +5000point close. HFA $0.275 +10%, QTM $0.135 +17.39% MCC $16.54 +8.25% PVE 0.80 -31.33%. Info Tech +0.07% on IRESS $8.90 +1.14% speculated merger with ASX, healthcare +0.9% PRY $4.38 +2.82%, SIP -8.33%
- ASX 200 4984.7 -0.34%
- SPI Futures 4998.0 -0.38%
2. Macarthur engages Peabody, pushes back deadlines on other offers with GCL & Noble. Concession given to Peabody for discussions over the deal.
3. Qualified support from POSCO and ArcelorMittal has given Peabody bid legitimacy, welcomes Macurthur’s move to engage them.
4. FGE $2.92 +1.74% & CLO $0.93 +1.64% – IER not fair and not reasonable, recommending shareholders take no action on the proposal, yet execs passing on stock and options for CLO to have 31% interest to solidify relationship.
5. CoalConnect Alliance LEI $37.53 -0.32% Leighton contractors to deliver components of QR’s GAP expansion project $370M contract
6. Intol ITO $1.13 +1.35% 1Q Westlink M7 Average Daily Revenue +8.7% YoY, 407 ETR Average Daily Trips +2.2% YoY, 407 ETR Revenue +9.6% YoY
7. QBE $22.10 -0.45% to buy NAU Country Insurance Co. manages multi-peril crop insurance in U.S. for $US565M 2.6xNTA US$217M
8. QAN $2.98 +0.68% cancels flights from Volcanic Ash covering Europe.
9. Martin Kriewaldt & Cherrel Hirst retire from Board SUN $9.16 +0.11%, Gary Weiss retires as director of WDC $12.55 -0.16%.
10. ECSI $0.018+8.3% HYoHY, -$82K loss.
11. Enebba Gas ENB $0.23 +17.95% & Cougar Energy CXY $0.135 sign MOU to develop Sargon Coal Tenement in WA, 100% owned by ENB. Each to contribute $1M initially once pen is put to paper, Underground Coal Gasification project to fuel. Indicated 74MT, inferred 120MT JORC compliant resource 194MT.
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ASX Stock Report 15-4-10
1. Consumer inflation and unemployment survey overshadowed by Chinese greater than expected double digit growth and the equities market down under pushes over the 5000point hurdle.
· ASX 200 5001.9 + 0.14%
· SPI Futures 5012 -0.1%
2. Melbourne consumer inflationary expectations +4.1% April from 3.2% March. Survey from Melbourne Institute, inflation expected to rise. Proportion of consumers expecting RBA CPI target 2-3% fell 2.7% MoM. U/E index -0.8% April, 43.8% below Feb 09 peak.
3. RIO operations review: 1Q Iron Ore production +39% YoY, 1Q results; Refined Copper 95,900 T, -8% YoY; Mined Copper 165,300 T, -16% YoY; Refined Gold 174,000 Oz +62% YoY; Mined Gold 225,000 Oz, +12% YoY; Uranium Production 2.7M Pounds, -20% YoY; US Coal Production 10.1M Tons, -53% YoY; Other Australian Coal Production 4.9M Tons, -8% YoY; Hard Coking Coal Production +1.9M Tons, +35% YoY; Alumina Production 2.21M Tons, +1% YoY; Aluminum Production 937,000 Tons, -1% YoY; Iron Ore Production 43.4M Tons, +39% YoY; Iron Ore Production 43,361 Tons, +39% YoY; Mined Gold Production +12% YoY; Mined Copper Production -16% YoY; Iron Ore Production +39% On Year Still Cautious About Short-Term Volatility; Most Operations Continued To Run At Capacity In 1Q, 2010 Capital Expenditure Expected To Be At Least $5 B; 2010 Share Of Mined Copper Production Expected 680,000 Tons; 2010 Global Iron Ore Production Guidance 234 M Metric Tons.
4. Coal and Allied Industries $98.00 -2%(Subsidiary of RIO $80.05 -0.06%) Q1 production -20% QoQ, equal to 1Q CY09. 1Q Sales 3.9MT -3.7% YoY and -27.6% QoQ, 1Q Production 4.22MT. Reasoning, low in-pit coal inventories, s-term geotechnical issues and higher rainfall.
5. MCC $15.28 -1.42% rec’d revised bid from New Hope $5.22 +1.36%. Scrip 2.7 to 1 offer, or $14.50/share conditional on cash available & capped $950M. Should shareholders elect cash alternative and the cap be reached, cash issued per share will be scaled back and scrip equivalent offered in its place. New Offer rejected by MCC board.
6. Peabody raises bid for MCC $16/share, values MCC $4.1B
7. Beadell resources $0.16 -3.03% finalises sale of Ampari Gold mine resulting vendor New Gold Inc{NGD NYSE &TSX} 19.5% stake.
8. OZL $1.265 +3.69% 1Q Gold output 41572Oz, Copper output 31,909T. Gold Outlook raised from 80-90KT to 110-120KT p.a. copper unchanged outlook.
9. BOQ $12.14 +0.75% increased net interest margins +13bp from 1H CY09. Or 0.13%. +96% HY NP $90.9M. 26c div fully franked. Retail Deposits $16.9B +9% p.a., tier 1 capital +9.2%
10. Property – ALZ $0.57 Chairman’s address @ AGM. Price growth evident in 09, expected to be moderate in ’10 with declining affordability. Operating profit -31.4% FY08 to 09, Paid almost 3x the amount of borrowing obligations from YoY gearing reduced to 25.4% from 36.2%. Despite rental income improving other income -39.76%. Market Cap $1.4B – More a REIT these days than developer with devt earnings ~15-20% of total. FY10 P/E 11.4x, 8.49% yield, 25% gearing, 28% discount to book – best value of the big caps. Temasek Holdings owns ~60% so a corporate angle here also. Target price 63c.
11. Wealth of articles in today’s FIN covering property sector growth. For sales signs up as confidence returns p45, Australia inspires confidence p46, AustSuper to add $500 into a direct property fund p49, yesterday’s FIN Rents surging +1.5% in capital cities 1Q CY10, property leading sector of economy on equities market today +1.61%.
12. GPM $0.215 +4.88% has John Leaver join the register and we are adding to its fundamental characteristics (50% discount NTA, yield 8%, PE 7x) the possibility of corporate activity
13. Retail: Discretionary’s perform again despite prices & interest rate environment. NWS $19.77 +1.8% FLT $21.04 +1.89% BBG $11.69 +0.95% PMV $7.65 +1.73% PBG $1.255 -2.33%
14. SIP $0.54 CEO Elmo De Alwis resigns
15. Tech Stocks: IRE $8.80 +1.85% keeps edging up as speculation arises ASX may move to take over the company after having been relieved of its role as market regulator.
16. Our analysts believe consolidation is always a key growth element of managing the business in the telecos space, however until NBN issues are resolved the competitiveness within the industry is not exposed.
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ASX Stock Report 14-4-10
1. Recovering commodity prices, global demand for energy and reporting season in the US. Financial stocks+1.49%, discretionary +0.84% on consumer sentiment index & computer chip maker INTL results, and Utilities +1.3% leading the market. Financial company drivers in greater volume of fees and earnings as all asset classes move out of economic downturn, along with good variable mortgage spreads for the banks.
- ASX 200 4994.7 +0.87%
- SPI Futures 5005.0 +0.83%
2. Consumer sentiment index -1% MoM. Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey 116.1 from 117.3 in March. Since October last year when the RBA starting moving on rates, the index has +2.7%. average SVR +1.35%, market expects cash rate to e be at 5% in twelve months. Expected family finance next 12 months -8% sharpest fall in two years, family finance -0.6% from last year YoY. Economic conditions index next 12 months +1.3%, next 5 yrs +0.7%. Steady employment, improving business sentiment, rising home and commodity prices being key factors underlying the data.
3. Energy – Resources & Energy Minister Martin Ferguson states seismic data sets from gov have become available in an effort to promote oil & gas exploration on Australian shores. This after UN +2.56Mkm² of Australian Continental Shelf in ’08. “Our energy security will be greatly enhanced if we are successful in opening up new oil frontiers and can reduce dependency on imports” Ferguson. Crude deficit at present $16B p.a., will grow to $30B p.a. by 2015.
4. Re-iterating the International Energy Agency forecast for global Oil +2% YoY with increase 1.67Mbarrels/day. There has been a flurry of gas deals, however gas remains an alternative resources and demand for oil continues to > $80/barrel despite the effect this may have throughout the global economy from a cost-push pricing perspective.
Oil stocks: ROC $0.415 +1.22% PPP $0.295 +5.36% CTX $12.60 +0.8% OSH $5.91 +0.17%
5. MEO$0.455 +24.66% shares where +26% after informing market of partnership with Petroleo Brasileiro to drill Artemis WA offshore project. MEO to pay US$31.5mil cash and receive US$7.5M + US$41M drilling costs for first well. Petro takes 50% stake in exploration permit
6. ACCC allows Shell/PetroChina bid for CSG Arrow Energy $5.17 +1.17% acquisition.
7. Beach Energy $0.755 conditional agreement with Lakes Oil LKO $0.009 +28.57% to examine gas potential in Gippsland Basin VIC. Two phase term, possibility for Beach to receive 15% interest with expenditure of $10M first phase and 50% interest with expenditure $40M second. Beach essentially funding exploration.
8. Transfield $3.95 -0.5% HY FY10 sustainability review, NPAT +0.33%, record cash flow $130.1M, 5c div fully franked, Sales stable, Net Debt >-50%; continued contract wins globally TIMEC NSW Housing, North America Transport into Canada ~$1B.
9. Transurban $5.19 +1.37% toll revenue on Australian assets increased Q1 CY10, US revenue & traffic on Pocahantas parkway fell.
10. FGE $2.90 +12.4% target statement and IER for proposed proportional t/o by Clough $0.925 +0.54% deemed not fair and not reasonable.
11. APZ $0.515 +0.98% deal with Port of Brisbane for 1.8hc hopes to build 1,000 new homes. Initially 150 homes will be built for $11.1M & a share of revenue’s during project, options bought for the remaining 850 homes.
12. GPM $0.205 +2.5% has John Leaver join the register and we are adding to its fundamental characteristics (50% discount NTA, yield 8%, PE 7x) the possibility of corporate activity.
13. Rents surging +1.5% in capital cities 1Q CY10, may look to focus on companies who have more residential management books in their business. Depending on housing volumes and prices in rising interest rate environment. MGR
14. Elders $1.335 write down to $0 the $5.7mil investment 13.5% holding of Forest Enterprises FEA who have gone into voluntary administration.
15. NWS $19.42 +2.48% still the best quality content provider.
16. SXL $2.22 +3.74% and Aboriginal TV company Impraja has received government funding to provide to digital services.
17. IIN $2.88 -0.35% AMM $0.35 +4.48% taking profits, prices above Targets. Research see’s at present no real s-term fundamental driver in the teleco’s space until an outcome is reached on the NBN
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ASX Stock Report 13-4-10
1. Early selling market -13.2points by 10.10am. Then again post 1pm, market lost any leads from yesterday as commodities lost value across the board.
- ASX 200 4951.6 -0.66%
- SPI Futures 4964.0 -0.86%
2. BHP $43.84 -1.37%; RIO $79.50 (-1.44%), Gold Spot –US$11.45/oz LGL $3.92 -1.51%; NCM $34.41 -1.49%, Oil spot –US$0.68/barrel STO $14.64 -1.88%; ORG $16.75 -1.41%
3. ABS lending finance data for February; commercial finance +5.6% – revolving credit commitments +13.7% and fixed lending commitments +2.9%, owner occupied lending -4.4%, personal finance +0.7% – fixed lending commitments +1% & revolving credit commitments +0.4%. Lease finance commitments +0.8%.
4. NAB business conditions index +6points to 13pts. Strongest since November 07, on improved employment forecasts, capacity utilisation and stronger eco growth forecasts. – WSJ
5. Energy: Coal – KRL $0.19 -2.56% Indonesian Coal resources; 1) Thermal Coal GPK project 84.82% owned. Commencing production 25KTp.m. Margin $20/T; expecting 1-2MT p.a.CY10 & +10MT p.a. within three years. 2) Mamahak Coking project inherited 30KT stockpile ready for immediate shipping, have exposed 15KT of fresh resource for mining. Initial production 30KTp.m. margin $50/T. Infrastructure capable of 1.5MTp.a. Production JORC resources 10.22MT. 3) New m’ment looking to unlock value.
6. MTE $0.305 -3.17% finding a level market after being up 40% over a week.
7. Santos signs Gas sale and Purchase agreement with Wesfarmers Energy WES $32.28 -0.28%. Five year contract for 60 Petajoules of gas, sourced from John Brookes gas field offshore WA. Commence 2H CY10
8. Energy: Uranium – EXT $7.83 -0.89%; BKY $1.52 +0.66%
9. ERA $18.52 -5.94%; -27% 1Q uranium output, expected from lower grade resource.
10. Over the past 12 months, the price of uranium has hovered between USD 55.00/lb and USD 40.00/lb, and is currently priced around USD 41.75/lb; the latest peak was seen in mid-2009 at around USD 54.00/lb.
11. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development paints a healthy growing demand for uranium, especially in the longer term, and the World Nuclear Association reckons that where mine supply was about 44,000 tonnes (about 20% each from Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia) in 2008, demand is likely to increase to 74,000 tonnes by 2015
12. OneSteel $3.96 -3.41% blast furnace failure leading to production stoppage.
13. Industrial Services: DOW $7.44 -2.75%; AAX $4.75 -0.84%; BLY $0.345 -2.82%; TOL $7.50 +0.4%
14. MAH $0.815 -3.55% awarded $90M rail contract, 16th March awarded $190M contract to operate Cameby Downs coal in QLD.
15. Leighton $37.85 -0.24% JV contract with Abigroup to upgrade Gateway motorway QLD. $240M contract extension. Also awarded $940M adjustment from Energy Resources to increase production at Ukhaa Khudag coal mine in Mangolia.
16. South Korean Hyundai Merchant Marine contract with Brazil and Australian iron ore shipment, translates to $315M in sales for 2010-2015. is a 15yr contract. 50:50 JV with Far East Marine Group.
17. Healthcare: SIP $0.515 (-0.96%) SHL $14.48 (+1.54%) ISF $0.58 (-1.69%) PRY $4.25 (+1.92%)
18. TLS $3.19 (+2.9%) drove up telecoms.
19. Utilities: EWC 0.50 +3.09%; APA $3.70 +1.65%; AGK 15.38 (+1.18%)
20. Retail: US based discretionary’s FXJ $1.775 (-1.39%) NWS $18.95 (-1.3%) ALL $4.55 (-1.09%) WDC $12.17 (+0.08%)
21. Retail auto sellers performing well off the back of rebounding industry. Car sales YoY March +25.2% (from last week). Super Cheap Auto $5.11 (+0.2%) Automotive Holdings $2.60 (-1.52%) ARB Corp $5.72 (+0.35%)
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ASX Stock Report 12-4-10
1. Market was positive across all segments today which follows on from last week as we edge closer to 5000 points, +1.56% over the week. FGE$2.70 (-4.59%) after recommending to shareholders to “take no action” on the Clough Operations Pty Ltd proportional takeover, potential for 3rd party bidder over, FGE in the process of releasing a Target Statement to shareholders. NUF $7.86 (-4.96%); Tender offer for Nufarm shares by Japanese Chemical Company Sumitomo has had 81.45% acceptances. HFA $0.235 (+17.5%), COK $0.565 (+14.14%), DYE $1.30 (+13.04%), AGO$2.98 (+7.19%), MMX $2.93 (+6.55%):
- ASX 200 4984.3 (+0.73%)
- SPI Futures 5007.0 (+0.74%)
2. Materials and Industrials leading the market. DOW $7.65 (+4.08%); AAX $4.79 (+8.86%); TOL $7.47 (+1.22%); BLY $0.355 (+1.43%)
3. Downer speculated to be named preferred contractor for NSW Government $1.2bil electronic ticketing system for greater Sydney transport network. Through Pearl consortium Downer, US Cubic Corp (CUB) & CBA $58.40 (+0.45%). Historically NSW Government has a poor record in attempting to implement an electronic ticketing system, attempted in 2002 and still embroiled in litigations with ERG.
4. Ausenco addresses speculation of contract negotiations over project m’ment services in Australian resources, is in final stages of negotiation although nothing signed. AAX up 3% after 10.30am this morning.
5. Transurban $5.15 having due diligence conducted on failed Sydney tollroad operator Connector Motorways. A review is being launched by the ACCC.
6. Oil prices +$0.50 by midday Singapore time, $85.42/barrel crude May delivery. USD Stronger against the AUD and NZD, however still down on other major trading partners. EUR/USD +0.15%.
7. Consolidation in Resources: Xstrata interest in MacCarthur Coal $16.52 (+6.24%) has been denied by MCC. Newhope $5.49 (+3.58%) committed to participate with MCC board on merger. MCC + again today. GCL $12.11 (-0.74%), NCM $34.93 (-1.96%), LGL $3.98 (-0.25%)
8. MTE $0.315 (+3.28%) Metrocoal, $30mil QLD coal JV with Chinese coal producer still being factored into price. China National Coal group funding production terms min $4mil inflow within first two years with expectations 2.5-3.5BT of thermal coal, 100MT p.a.
9. Energy World $0.485 (+3.19%) looking to list in Hong Kong to broaden investor base.
10. GPT group $0.58 to follow on from Mirvac’s plans last week and undergo a $400mil equity raising for its Wholesale Office Fund. GPT looking to add value to its already established Sydney and Melbourne office asset. Suggests consolidation in the sector again, as MGR $1.43 (-0.35%) was rumoured to move on WOT $0.81 last week.
11. Sigma $0.52 (+10.64%) trading on a PE6.7x FY10. Healthcare getting a lot of fiscal spend focus globally. ISF $0.59 (+0.85%) have global operations and are up 17% over the month. Speculation private equity will move on consolidating SIP with iNova Pharmaceuticals – another Aussie prescription distributor. And re-list.
12. Primary Health Care $4.17 (+4.14%) share overhang from chief executive selling 10% of holding, +15% growth in EBITDA forecast, 2.3x prior distribution. However loosing market share in pathology to competition Sonic $14.26 (-1.52%) & Healthscope $4.53, hurting bottom lines from pathology’s volume leverage to margin.
13. IIN $2.86 (-0.35%) set to deliver digital TV service, partnership signed with Fetch TV. Is a DVR (digital video recorder) competing against Tivo & Foxtel IQ. It will offer free to air TV & subscription content, the combination being its competitive advantage. Content will come from Discovery Networks, National Geographic, MTV Networks, Fox International Channels, E! Entertainment Television, BBC World News, CNBC, ABC, Roadshow Entertainment, Disney Media Distribution, MGM, and Lionsgate. Subscriptions will cost under $30 a month and will be completely unmetered on iiNet.
14. Jetstar (QAN $2.96 (+3.14%) low-cost carrier) joint-venture with Air Canada links Hawaii route with Canadian carrier’s service into the country (Vancouver & Quebec) joint fare single booking. 12th interline deal, Canadian Air joins list of other partner carriers including Qantas, Etihad, Air Calin and Royal Jordanian.
15. Tiger Airways (low-cost carrier for Singapore) looking at moving a portion of flight paths from Tullamarine to Avalon airport in VIC.






