16-3-10 ASX200 Stock Report

1. Domestic equities market was again relatively flat today, the ASX200 finishing up 13.1 points. Largest contributions where from the teleco’s lead by TLS which ended up 2.3% closing at $3.11 and looks to be in a good position to be trading off; remembering the share price will be sensitive to government intervention on the NBN split up of infrastructure assets.

• ASX200 4797 (+0.27%)
• SPI 4804 (+0.27%)

2. Minutes to the RBA meeting from Tuesday 2nd March, justification for their 0.25bp rate rise:

• International economic conditions remain uncertain. The US reported mixed results; EU remains the weakest of all. Japanese reported relative strong GDP growth, India slightly negative reflecting declining production and China reporting little but evidence of strong property price growth and greater bank lending.

• Global public debt levels remain an issue especially considering the widening of fiscal deficits.
• Domestic economic conditions where faintly better than previously. GDP for Dec09 quarter was expected to be 0.75 – 1%, contributed to by primarily the public sector and household spending.
• Improved business sentiment, improvements in labour market figures where on the upside
• Business credit growth and retail trade improved over January.
• The RBA noted Melbourne as the stronger city from the buoyant domestic housing market.
• Building approvals notably higher from the year previous however loan approvals retracted as expected post MP tightening
• CPI figures where not released, private sector wage growth remained low leading the RBA to suggest underlying inflation will fall further in the short term to 2.5%.
• Sovereign debt issues are not feared by their magnitude but from the possibility of a flow on effect. Greek and German gov. bond spreads had increased, while other major developed nations bond spreads including our own stayed relatively unchanged.
• The RBA admits that if the sovereign debt problems where not resolved this could have implications for our domestic economy.
• Company profits for the 1H FY10 on the aggregate where vastly stronger than the year previous.

3. SEV $8.00 (+0.38%) in trading halt post Federal Court ruling post release of the IER for merger with industrial equipment business owned by Kerry Stokes. NWS $18.16 (+0.83%) is still our strongest content distributor.

4. MOL $0.895 (+1.7%) after Chinese Government approval for $US200mil investment in the company by Hanlong Mining, final approval rec’d today.

5. LNG $0.525 (+2.94%); AOE $5.23 (-0.38%) have signed a limited obligation extension to the terms of the agreement to buy LNG’s Gladstone project. The provisions for the agreement have been extended until June 30th. AOE still developing on an outcome from takeover offer from Shell/PetroChina bid.

6. RIO $75.50 (+0.16%) and Chinalco are entering into a joint-venture to manage political uncertainty and tap into west African country Guinea’s Iron Ore. The Simandou field is set to rival the globe in terms of size and quality of iron ore, comparable to WA Pilbarra mine or Carajas in Brazil . Chinalco has kept the door open for further co-operation between the companies both domestically and abroad.

7. RIO annual report for 2009, experienced difficult period in comparison to the year previous but the company is optimistic on prices going forward. Major highlights:

• Underlying earnings down 38% to US$6.3bil
• Net debt reduced by US$20bil to $US18.9bil
• Cash flow from operations down 33% to US$13.8bil
• Capex US$5.4bil

8. Property market; ALZ $0.515 (-0.96%); SDG $0.80 (+1.91%); DVN $0.28 (+7.69%); CDI $0.53 (-1.85%)

9. Engineering; BLY $0.315 (-1.56%) nature of business may mean that reporting season for them is not in line with their most productive periods for earnings over the year. They are forced to report in February despite a lot of their operations being offshore, especially in the Americas, making their reporting appear conservative and for their quieter months of Jan and Feb. BLY has begun readying rigs and hired more than 1000 employees. The stock will be included in the S&P/ASX 100 from March 19th.

10. UGL $15.02 (+4.23%) we see as overpriced but still an option in the sector with upgrades to industrial services forecasts, FGE $2.51 (+10.09%); DOW $7.48 (+0.13%) & AAX $3.99 (+1.27%) are good plays in the engineering and industrials space.

11. IIN $2.45 (+3.38%) investor presentation 1H FY10 results, focus on low price high bandwidth ISP, differentiating products.

• Revenue $228mil (+11%)
• Underlying NPAT $14.8mil (+30%)
• Underlying EBITDA $37.4mil (+20%)
• Underlying ROE 14% (+3%)

12. Australian Central credit union recorded $6.3mil profit – 55% increase in HY FY10 profit. 120% increase in retail deposits and 107% rise in assets under management.

Overseas Headlines:

1. The beginning of the global financial market descent was marked by the fall of IB Lehman Brothers. Could they also have something to do with the resurrection of global financial markets? The company has announced today that it has come out of receivership.

2. Fears of tightening policy in China entered the commodities market overnight with the majority of traders factoring into prices the effect this will have on domestic demand.

3. European Union officials have confirmed that a mechanism will be put in place to help the Greek government avoid default on debt. They did not confirm how much money would need to be pooled nor who would be contributing and to what extent they would do so, however after meeting yesterday they where protective of their vested interest in the sovereign debt within the region. Greece has committed to cutting their deficit by 4% to bring it below 4% by the end of 2012.

Data Tomorrow:

1. Canada:

• Wholesale Sales month on Jan survey 0.5% vs. prior 0.7%

2. Japan:

• BOJ Target Rate (MP) 0.10%

3. UK:

• Jobless Claims change February survey 6K vs. prior 23.5K

• Average weekly earnings 3months to January (YoY) survey 1.7% vs. prior 0.8%

• U/E rate 3months to January survey 7.9% vs. prior 7.8%

4. US:

• Producer Price Index February survey -0.2% vs. prior 1.4%

• PPO exports Food and Energy survey 0.1% vs. prior 0.3%

Stock Market Update 19-10-09

The Australian market opened in the red and reached a floor for the day in the late morning, before recovering somewhat in the afternoon. The All Ordinaries finished Monday 41 points lower.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 44 points down. The Consumer Staples sector was buoyed by gains in Woolworths (+$0.77). The Financials sector fell, with selling in Commonwealth Bank (-$0.77), Westpac (-$0.66), National Australia Bank (-$0.70), ANZ (-$0.83), Macquarie Group (-$0.96) and AMP (-$0.20). In the Industrials sector, Toll (+$0.18) gained while Macquarie Airports (-$0.08) and Asciano (-$0.04) went backward. The Materials sector dipped, hurt by BHP Billiton (-$0.12), Orica (-$0.52) and Fortescue (-$0.15); Newcrest (+$0.47) and Lihir (+$0.05) fared better. Other notable losers included Aristocrat (-$0.22) and Santos (-$0.37).

There was little company news on Monday. Oil Search entered a trading halt, regarding the termination of a proposed sale of an effective interest in PDL 2, including a ~3.5% interest in the PNG LNG Project to IPEC, as well as a share placement to institutional investors. Following completion of due diligence, Pacific Equity Partners has offered to acquire 100% of Energy Developments (+$0.10) for $2.65 cash per share. Meanwhile, Energy Developments has terminated discussions with the potential buyer of the UK and French landfill gas power generation assets.

Australia: Taking the lead with higher rates, but who will follow?

In a move that surprised some analysts, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Call Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. After a spate of strong economic indicators, signs of recovery from Australia’s major trade partners and a moderation in price increases, the markets had priced in some monetary tightening before year-end. This hike confirms those expectations, and along with a few choice comments in the RBA’s accompanying statement, implies that another hike could hit by year-end. Given the economy’s recent performance, we have no complaints about tighter policy.

Today’s headlines made a special effort to point out the RBA’s move was the first tightening amongst the G-20, but in all candor we humbly ask who else could have been a viable contender? With the Euro-zone still struggling with problems in some of its weaker member countries, the US in quantitative easing mode and having posted negative GDP growth since Q4 2008 (although Q3 2009 figures due October 29 should break that streak), and Japan’s base rate having flatlined years ago, only a few niche players within the G20 could even offer a challenge against Australia for first to hike.

But now that the RBA has made its move, the more interesting question is who will be the next to pull the trigger. Right now, the likely candidates are all in Asia: Singapore, South Korea and China. Singapore currently stands as the favorite simply due to timing – the Monetary Authority of Singapore meets on Monday, and now has the opportunity to tweak its monetary stance without being the first in the pool. Its economy posted one of the first technical recessions in Asia due to a plunge in net exports, but in turn its recovery has been quite brisk and without any price pressures. While the temptation to let the economy feed off of cheap credit is very strong, the authorities now have some incentive to remove the ultra- from its ultra-loose monetary policy and start the long process of normalizing interest rates.

Also worth mention is South Korea, which just a year ago had to reassure foreign investors it was in fact not going to slide into the abyss a la 1998. The economy did go through a four-quarter weak patch, but in fact did not experience a technical recession and like many others came back strong in Q2 this year – thanks in part to a little fiscal priming. More to the point, the Bank of Korea timed its moves well over the past year, moderating its rate cuts as to not feed into a domestic asset bubble. Now with Australia taking the lead, the Bank can offer a hike as keeping in line with the regional recovery.

China is the least likely of the three to make a move, although the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can throw a curveball now and then. Officials have offered the usual batch of central bank talk to cover all possibilities while not committing to a particular position, but the central theme from the PBoC suggests that while a recovery is well underway, it is an uneven rebound and there is still significant fragility in certain parts of the economy. Along with a few other key words we think China will remain on hold until early-2010, although given how much bank lending grew in the first half of the year we cannot help but wonder if inflation is a concern.

With global trade having restarted – although from a lower base – it is no surprise that Asia is seeing the first fruits of recovery. Now that the RBA has validated its personal belief that the worst has passed with its own rate hike, other economies will follow suit before the year is over. Whether those economies are ready for higher interest rates, however, is another story altogether.

Stock Market Wrap 8-10-09

The Australian market soared upon opening and reached a plateau for the rest of the morning, before lifting off again in the afternoon. The All Ordinaries finished Wednesday 99 points higher.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 104 points up. The Materials sector surged, with winners including BHP Billiton (+$1.16), Rio Tinto (+$3.02), Newcrest Mining (+$2.22), Fortescue Metals (+$0.31), Lihir (+$0.17), Amcor (+$0.15), BlueScope Steel (+$0.08), Incitec Pivot (+$0.21), Alumina (+$0.09) and OZ Minerals (+$0.08). The Financials sector benefited from gains in the four majors: Commonwealth Bank (+$1.80), Westpac (+$0.33), National Australia Bank (+$0.93) and ANZ (+$0.55), plus a strong showing from Westfield (+$0.27), Macquarie Group (+$3.05), Suncorp-Metway (+$0.58) and Stockland (+$0.16). The Energy sector saw Origin (+$0.20), Santos (+$0.18), Oil Search (+$0.08) and particularly WorleyParsons (+$1.61) rise. In the Industrials sector, Leighton Holdings (+$1.27) and Macquarie Airports (+$0.16) gained but Brambles (-$0.41) extended its decline. Another notable loser was Singtel (-$0.14).

On Tuesday night, Rio Tinto took another step towards the development of a world class copper-gold resource in Mongolia with the signing of an investment agreement for the Oyu Tolgoi project with the Government of Mongolia. The government will address the conditions precedent and Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines will commence the development phase. Production is expected to start in 2013.

US stocks rose for a third day as banks climbed on an analyst upgrade, while Alcoa jumped before beginning the third-quarter earnings season.

The S&P 500 fell for most of the day, as homebuilders declined on speculation Congress will not extend a tax credit. Pulte Homes, KB Home and DR Horton were down between 3% and 4%. AT&T led a slump in telephone shares after saying it will allow iPhone customers to use internet phone carriers.

Boeing, United Technologies, 3M and Travelers Companies were among the biggest decliners on the blue-chip average. They were also among the biggest gainers in the early-week rally.

Late in the session, a rally in a variety of financial stocks gave the market a boost. The Bank of America, the largest US lender by assets, and Wells Fargo each added 2.1%.

The benchmark index was further buoyed in the final hour of trading as investors speculated Alcoa, the first Dow company to report earnings, would post better-than-estimated results.

After market close, Alcoa reported its first quarterly profit in a year, as it benefited from improving metal prices and saved money by cutting jobs and reducing other costs. Profit, excluding one-time charges, was 4cps, exceeding analysts’ average estimate for a 9cps loss. Revenue was US$4.62B versus forecasts for US$4.55B. Results were weaker than those a year ago. Alcoa cut 18,000 jobs in the 12 months to June as the global recession depressed demand and prices for aluminium.

In other earnings news, Costco, the largest US warehouse club, reported fourth-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated as gross margin improved. Shares gained 1.8% in NASDAQ trading. Net income dropped 6% in the quarter from a year ago. Shoppers join the members-only warehouse club for basics, along with designer goods and other luxuries. Costco has seen sales of non-essential items fall as consumers pull back to cope with job losses and the recession. Costco runs stores in North America, Asia, Mexico, the UK and Australia.

Broad S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are expected to have fallen 25% from a year ago, extending the losing streak to nine quarters. Analysts expect the energy sector to report that profits fell 64% from a year ago. Industrials are expected to post a 45% drop in profits. Financials are expected to post the best results due to easy comparisons against an abysmal third quarter of 2008. The sector is expected to see earnings growth of 59%.

Stock Market Wrap 7-10-09

Buoyed by an encouraging lead from overseas, the Australian market started strongly but soon began to shed its gains, and lost more steam after the RBA’s rate hike. The All Ordinaries finished Tuesday 18 points higher.

The S&P/ASX 200 also closed 18 points up. The Materials sector rose, with BHP Billiton (+$0.33), Rio Tinto (+$0.88) and Newcrest (+$0.76) climbing while Fortescue (-$0.19) fell. The Energy sector gained, with winners including Origin (+$0.28), Santos (+$0.13), Oil Search (+$0.10) and WorleyParsons (+$0.75); Woodside (-$0.43) bucked the trend and declined. The Financials sector saw gains in Westpac (+$0.51), ANZ (+$0.20), Westfield (+$0.24) and Macquarie Group (+$1.05); however, Commonwealth Bank (-$0.18) and National Australia Bank (-$0.11) dipped. The Industrials sector saw Brambles (-$0.20) fall while Leighton Holdings (+$0.83) and Macquarie Airports (+$0.08) rose. Losers in the Consumer Discretionary sector included Harvey Norman (-$0.11), Aristocrat (-$0.25), Fairfax (-$0.06) and David Jones (-$0.30). In the Healthcare sector, CSL (-$0.45) and ResMed (-$0.14) softened.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.25%. Graincorp (in trading halt) is to acquire global malt manufacturer United Malt Holdings for an enterprise value of $757M. The acquisition is to be funded by a 9-10 entitlement offer at $5.65ps and institutional placement raising a total of $589M, and a US$200M debt facility. Graincorp also upgraded its FY09 NPAT guidance to a range of $60M-$63M and said it will pay a dividend equivalent to 15cps per existing share. Brambles’ CEO will retire from his role on 1 November 2009. Brambles’ strategic review of its North American CHEP operations endorsed the continued use of wooden pallets and an improvement in customer service.

US Stock Markets

US stocks extended a worldwide rally, on speculation third-quarter earnings will top estimates and growing conviction the global economy is improving.

Market breadth was positive. On the NYSE, winners topped losers by almost four to one. On the NASDAQ, advancers topped decliners two to one.

The stock advance was broad-based, with 29 of 30 Dow stocks rising as investors piled into a variety of stocks battered in the recent sell-off. Investors welcomed reports that Australia became the first major economy to lift interest rates since the start of the financial crisis.

Producers of energy and raw materials had the two biggest advances in the S&P 500 among 10 industries, rising around 2%. Alcoa and Newmont Mining climbed at least 3.5%, while Exxon Mobil gained 1.6% as crude advanced.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries added 1.9%, the most in two months.

In company news, Boeing said it will take a US$1B charge in the third quarter because of higher costs to produce its 747-8 airplanes and tough market conditions. The stock was little changed and was the only Dow stock to not advance.

Alcoa is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Wednesday, the first company in the Dow average to report earnings. General Electric and Intel are among the Dow and S&P 500 companies that will report in the next two weeks. Analysts expect companies will report a ninth straight quarter of declining profits before returning to growth in the final quarter.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 23-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 19 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 2.12% and RIO up 2.82%. BHP was up 1% and RIO up 2.4% in the UK. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 1.36%, Nickel up 2.06%, Zinc up 1.43%, Aluminium up 0.27%, Lead up 3.48%. Oil price up $1.84 to $71.55. Gold up $10.60 to $1015. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.456% down from 3.487%. A$ up 87.36c versus 86.34c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 1.90%VIX Volatility Index down 4.07% 

Financial best sector up 2.3%. Highest level since November. JPMorgan Chase up 4.3% and was the best performer in the Dow index. Macy’s up 5.5%, Hewlett-Packard up 1.4% and Bank of America up 2.1% boosted by some analyst upgrades Energy sector up 1.4%, Materials sector up 1.2% on higher oil and commodity prices Newmont Mining up 1.8% and Exxon Mobil up 0.4% Caterpillar up 3.6% on speculation demand for commodities will boost sales. Utilities, Health Care and Telecoms down. Oil up for first time in 4 days. Chinese oil imports increased by 18% in August.

 US$ fell to its lowest level against the euro in more than a year. US$43bn Note Auction. Results for 2-year Treasuries strongest support in twoyears (the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.23). News that the Asian Development Bank has upgraded its GDP forecasts for majorAsian economies boosted sentiment on the global economic outlook. Predicted Asia,excluding Japan, will grow 3.9% in 2009. FOMC make their interest rate decision tonight.

The market is down 5. The SFE Futures suggested a 15 point fall.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 22-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 15 points overnight.BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 2.06% and RIO down 2.69%. BHP was down 1.19% and RIO down 3.43% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3800c, down 8c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 0.26%, Nickel up 1.42%, Zinc up 0.37%, Aluminium down 1.80%, Lead up 1.39% Oil price down $2.33 to $69.71 Gold down $5.40 to $1005 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.487% up from 3.474%. A$ weaker 86.34c versus 86.57c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 2.18% VIX Volatility Index up 0.59%

Dell plans to buy information-technology company Perot Systems Corp (up 65%) for $3.9bn drove some buying in tech stocks. Nasdaq rose 0.2% Financials down 0.91% led by decline in Bank of America Energy sector stocks like Exxon Mobil Corp, ConocoPhillips and Halliburton Co down in the face of a lower oil price Gold down for third day in a row. Takes shine off gold stocks Homebuilder Lennar Corp fell by 3% after announcing that a doubling in its quarterly loss in the three months to August The Conference Board Index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in August, Post their fifth successive gain. Near consensus forecasts of up 0.7% US$ stronger weighs on oil and gold Some profit taking ahead of key government meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve’s two-day rate-setting meeting.

The market is down 5. The SFE Futures suggested a 15 point fall.

International Stock Market Snapshot

Below we provide our unique trading range charts for 21 major country indices.  For each index, the light blue shading represents between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average.  When the price is within this trading range, it is considered to be in “neutral” territory.  The red zone represents between one and two standard deviations above the index’s 50-day moving average.  Moves into or above the red zone are considered “overbought.”  Moves into the green zone (more than one standard deviation below the 50-DMA) are considered “oversold.”

With the exception of a few Asian countries, most indices shown below are trading into overbought territory.  China’s Shanghai Composite is the only index trading below its 50-day moving average.  Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US look to be the most overbought of the bunch.  After trading in perpetual downtrends for nearly all of 2008 and the first few months of 2009, most countries have now been trading in solid uptrends for five months now, with only a brief pullback here and there.  Brazil, China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Sweden, Spain, South Korea, and Taiwan have all taken out their 52-week highs in recent months, while the rest still have a bit further to go.

Source: Bespoken Research

ASX Stock and CFD Report 21-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 7 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 1.60% and RIO down 0.58%. BHP was down 0.91% and RIO down 0.07% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3864c, down 6c on last night’s close. Metals weaker on LME Copper down 3.32%, Nickel down 4.05%, Zinc down 2.53%, Aluminium down 2.53%, Lead down 2.43% Oil price down 43c to $72.04 Gold down $3.20 to $1010 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.474% up from 3.398%. A$ weaker86.57c versus 87.22c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.74% VIX Volatility Index up 1.14%

Market up nine of the past eleven days. Up 2.2% for the week. For the week All ten sectors of the S&P 500 were up, led by Materials +4.7% and Financials +4.5%. S&P 500 now up 58% from its lows in March Telecom, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services, Utilities and Technology sectors led the market up on Friday. The Other five sectors were down. Other Consumer products stocks up included gains for Sara Lee up 5.7% and Home Depot.1.1%  Texas Instruments rallied after unveiling plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 1 US cent to 12 US cents A new economic forecast by Barclay’s Capital for GDP raised its projection for growth for the first three months of next year to 5% from 3% boosted sentiment Reports are circulating that international investors, headed by the Chinese, are boosting their holdings of US Treasuries, on a view that US inflation will remain subdued.

The market is down 18. The SFE Futures suggested a 7 point rise.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 15-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 46 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 0.72% and RIO down 0.41%. BHP was down 0.96% and RIO down 1.10% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3833c, up 49c on last night’s close. Metals generally weaker on LME Copper down 1.80%, Nickel down 2.04%, Zinc down 1.90%, Aluminium down 0.72%, Lead up 1.76% Oil price down 43c to $68.86 Gold down $5.30 to $1001 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.406% up from 3.343%. A$ down a touch 86.16c versus 86.19c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.62% VIX Volatility Index down 1.20% to 23.86

 Market recovers from early losses. Sixth gain in seven sessions Worries that a trade war could erupt between the U.S. and China caused early nervousness Nine out of ten sectors up. Telecoms only sector down. Utilities up after lagging in recent sessions. The sector advanced 1.6% after electric utilities (+1.7%) were given positive coverage in a Barron’s article. Utility AES Corp attracted interest (up 4.5%) after The Wall Street Journal reported that China’s investment arm is interested in buying a stake in the company.  Financial stocks up 1.6% after being down as much as 1% early .  Materials up 1.6% higher. General Electric up 4.6% to $15.35. First close above $15 since January. Goldman Sachs reiterated its “buy” rating on the stock.

The market is up 15. The SFE Futures up 46 points overnight.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 14-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 4 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.71% and RIO up 1.21%. BHP was up 2.97% and RIO up 1.69% in the UK.  Metals weaker on LME Copper down 0.68%, Nickel down 1.43%, Zinc down 2.90%, Aluminium down 0.49%, Lead down 2.39%  Oil price down $2.65c to $69.29  Gold up $9.60 to $1006  Bonds steady - 10 year yield at 3.343% up from 3.342%. A$ down 86.19c versus 86.33c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.55% VIX Volatility Index up 2.55% to 24.15

Main Drivers First day down in six sessions. Selling in Energy stocks primarily led the market lower on a weaker oil price. Chevron, down 0.98%, and ExxonMobil, down 0.95%. Financials weaker led by falls in JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America down 1.21% and 1.45%. National Semiconductor Corp down around 6%. Profit result fell short of expectations although the outlook statement was more positive.  FedEx Corp up 6.41% after announcing a better than expected quarterly result.  Gold finally broke up through the $US1000 level. Now near March 2008 highs. Better than expected September Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index did not do much for the market. A further rundown in wholesale inventories saw economists edge up their thirdquarter GDP forecasts.

The market is down 50. The SFE Futures were down 4 this morning. Japanese market down 2.5% at the moment. Dow Futures down 82 points.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 11-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 42 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 1.78% and RIO up 2.79%. BHP was up 0.09% and RIO up 0.20% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3829c, up 29c on last night’s close. Metals much weaker on LME Copper down 1.89%, Nickel down 4.21%, Zinc down 3.07%, Aluminium down 1.94%, Lead down 12.36% Oil price up 63c to $71.94 Gold touch weaker down $0.30 to $997 Bonds well up – 10 year yield at 3.342% down from 3.479%. A$ up 86.33c versus 86.29c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.77% VIX Volatility Index down 3.17% to 23.55

Broad based rally with all 10 major sectors up Energy stocks were strong including Chevron Corp and Schlumberger on higher oil prices. News that the International Energy Agency had increased its 2010 estimate for global demand for a second consecutive month (up 0.45M barrels to 85.7M barrels a day); (2) further US$ selling and (3) a larger than expected drop in crude stockpiles in the latest US Energy Department weekly inventories report boosted sentiment Telecom and Airline stocks were also strong Walt Disney up 5% in Media and Entertainment Procter & Gamble up 4.2% after saying it will cut prices and increase promotions across nearly 10% of its portfolio. Initial jobless claims numbers were better than expected. Trade deficit increased 16% to $32.0 billion in July. This was well above expectations. US$ fell – further weakness took it to 2009 lows against the Euro and YEN

The market is finishing the week off strongly and is up 25. The SFE Futures were up 42 this morning

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 10-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 31 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 0.41% and RIO down 0.01%. BHP was down 0.12% and RIO down 0.47% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3763c, down 6c on last night’s close. Metals take a breather on LME Copper down 1.02%, Nickel down 0.11%, Zinc down 0.10%, Aluminium down 0.27%, Lead down 2.13% Oil price up a bit 21c to $71.31 Gold price down $2.70 to $997 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.479% up from 3.469%. A$ up 86.29c versus 86.20c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.26% VIX Volatility Index down 5.07% to 24.32. Volumes were light.

Most sectors finished up. Utilities and consumer staples were slightly weaker. Financials were strong. Financials up 1.4%. Materials sector (resources) and energy sectors up. The Nasdaq Composite (technology driven) did better than the S&P500 and the Dow closing up 1.11%. Highest close since Oct last year. The S&P 500 is now 53% above its March lows Caterpillar up 3.1%. General Electric up 2.6% to January highs, Boeing 2.1%. Google up 1.2%. Ebay up 3.9% after Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded the company, citing the turnaround in its core businesses and in used-auto sales. Oil bit better helped by weaker US$. Most expect OPEC to retain its current production targets at Thursday’s Vienna meeting - a consensus view reinforced by comments by the Kuwaiti oil minister.  Gold failed to drive through the US$1000 mark. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey showed half of Federal Reserve districts saw evidence the U.S. economy had improved by the end of August, but labor markets remained weak and retail sales were flat overall.

The market is up 37, an 11 month high. The SFE Futures were up 31 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 09-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 11 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 4.30% and RIO up 4.81%. BHP was up 2.62% and RIO up 3.55% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3782c, up 24c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 2.39%, Nickel up 1.43%, Zinc up 3.98%, Aluminium up 1.64%, Lead up 4.36% Oil price stronger up $2.99 to $71.10 Gold price up $3.10 to $999 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.469% up from 3.442%. A$ up 86.36c versus 85.21c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 2.02% VIX Volatility Index up 1.43% to 25.62

Energy, commodities and industrial companies up on higher metals and oil prices. Alcoa up 3.5%, Chevron up 2.2%.  US$ fell to lowest level for a year against euro.  Gold price touched $1000 an ounce but closed below it. General Electric up 4.5% as JP Morgan upgraded to overweight from neutral. Health Care was the only one of the S&P 500’s 10 major sectors to fall. Cadbury rejects Kraft food bid. Cadbury jumped $14.42 or 38.5% in the US (same rally as in the UK the night before) to $51.88. Kraft fell $1.65, or 5.9%, to $26.45. Big phone deal in UK also boosted sentiment. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom said they planned to combine their British mobile phone units to form that country’s biggest mobile operator.

The market is up 23. The SFE Futures were up 11 points this morning. Lots of economic figures out today, retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 1% in July, compared to expectations of 0.5%. Housing finance also fell 2% in July against expectations for a 1.0% fall. Consumer Sentiment hit a 4 year high, rising by 5.2% in September. The index is up 34.4% over the last four months.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 4-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 28 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 1.86% and RIO up 3.56%. BHP was up 0.51% and RIO up 1.43% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3692c, up 22c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on the LME Copper up 1.38%, Nickel up 0.51%, Zinc up 3.66%, Aluminium up 0.44%, Lead up 8.00% Oil price touch lower down 9c to $67.96 Gold price continues to rally up another $19.20 to $998. Hits a 3 month high. Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.328% up from 3.295%. A$ up 83.97c versus 83.39c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.36% VIX Volatility Index down 6.23% to 27.10

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index (August) increased to a slightly higher than expected 48.4 in August, from 46.4 in July. This was the index’s highest reading in 11 months. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 29 totaled 570,000, down 4,000 from the previous week, but slightly more than the 564,000 that was expected. Market traded in a narrow range again. The market awaits the August jobs report, which is due before the market opens tomorrow Alcoa Inc. up 3.6% after increasing its forecast for global aluminium demand. Caterpiller up 3.5% on expectations demand with increase after the Chinese market rallied the most in six months Retailers such as Gap delivered negative same-store sales results for August but results weren’t as bad as expected. Target added 1.7%, Costco Wholesale gained 8.6% while Gap added 7.6%.

The market is up 33. Good finish to the week. All eyes will be on the job numbers tonight in US. Andean Resources (AND), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Reece Australia (REH) and Sino Gold (SGX) have hit a fresh yearly high today. Gold stocks doing well again today after the Gold price hit a 6 month high.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 18-8-09

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The SFE Futures down 45 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, down 4.37% and 6.25%. BHP down 3.16% in the UK, RIO down 4.69%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3667c, down 46c on last night’s close. Metals down again - Copper down 3.14%, Nickel down 2.23%, Zinc down 3.06%, Aluminium down 1.58%, Lead down 3.65%, Oil price fell to new lows for the month down 76c or 1.13% to $66.75, Gold price down $12.90 to $936 Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.491% down from 3.558%. A$ down to 82.08c versus 82.97c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.55% VIX Volatility Index up 14.92% to 27.89

Global Growth concerns – Main driver for the falls appears to be concerns over global growth after the weaker than expected Japanese GDP number yesterday (up 0.9% on the 2nd Q). Growth concerns did for the commodities with the CRB index down 1.7% and metal and oil prices fell. The good news – our market fell 73 yesterday or 1.6% yesterday and was one of the first markets to react to the Japanese GDP number and has therefore taken into account some of the 2.0% fall in the US markets overnight and the 3.1% fall in the Japanese stockmarket. Sideways – After the initial drop the US markets traded sideways in a very narrow range. The S&P 500 spent 5 hours in a 5 point range. Financial sector hit the worst down 4.3% with banks down 5.1%.

 The market is down 16. The SFE Futures were down 45 this morning. James Hardie (JHX) the big mover - up 22% on the back of its quarterly profit result including a significant improvement in US margins. It seems we might have absorbed most of the bad news about the Japanese GDP number in yesterday’s 73 point drop in the ASX 200. Amcor in a trading halt after announcing its result and an entitlement offer.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 17-8-09

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The SFE Futures down 27 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, down 3.24% and 2.79%. BHP down 2.33% in the UK, RIO down 2.22%.  BHP closed at the equivalent of 3794c, down 32c on last night’s close. Metals much weaker - Copper down 2.07%, Nickel down 4.96%, Zinc down 4.51%, Aluminium down 3.45%, Lead down 4.33%, Oil price down 4.46% or $3.01 to $67.51 Gold price down $7.80 to $949, Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.558% down from 3.591%. A$ down to 82.97c versus 84.21c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 2.88%. VIX Volatility Index down 1.78% to 24.27

S&P 500 fell for the first time in five weeks - compares to the ASX 200 up 3.76% lead by the banks up 6.9%. S&P still just above 1,000 at 1,004.  Low volume day and a very narrow trading range for most of the day - see chart. Consumer sentiment numbers weaker than expected and hit their lowest index reading since March. On the back of that the oil price fell 4%. Metals down on reports that Chinese copper imports had fallen by 15% in July (although the June figure was a record). CPI numbers in line with expectations. Core CPI unchanged compared to consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Industrial production a bit better than expected. First gain in nine months. Materials sector (resources) the worst of the bunch down 2.7%. Retailers down 1.7% after JC Penney fell 6% on results.

The market is down 39 this morning. The SFE Futures were down 28 this morning. Japan’s economy grew for the first time in five quarters. Its real GDP grew 0.9% in April-June from the previous quarter, an annual increase rate of 3.7%. Enough to have the NIKKIE up 0.76% this morning against the trend. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has gone ex dividend 115c today.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 13-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 50 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 2.08% and 0.57%. BHP up 1.80% in the UK, RIO up 0.30%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3793c, down 6c on last night’s close. Metals stronger - Copper up 2.65%, Nickel up 0.78%, Zinc up 2.07%, Aluminium up 2.90%, Lead up 2.58%, Oil price up 71c or 1.02% to $70.16 Gold price up $4.90c to $952. Bonds down a bit - 10 year yield at 3.701% up from 3.693%. A$ up to 83.33c versus 82.95c yesterday morning on the FOMC comments that US rates will be kept low for an extended period of time. CRB Commodities index up 1.06%. VIX Volatility Index down 2.08% to 25.45.

• Financials up 2.0% helped by credit rating upgrades in the insurance sector. Housebuilders up as Toll Brothers Inc jumped 14% after its latest sales numbers bettered analysts’ expectations. CRB Index up 1.1%. Oil price up despite a bigger than expected build in weekly inventories. The International Energy Agency had upgraded its oil-demand outlook for the balance of 2009 and into 2010. The $23bn 10 year bond auction saw average interest with a 3.734% yield, a 2.49 cover and an indirect take of 45.7%. There is a $15bn 30 year bond auction tomorrow. Trade numbers were a bit better than expected. The US trade deficit increased by a lower than expected 4% to US$27.0B in June. Sugar prices continued to hit highs last seen in the early 1980s on below average rains in India that could force the world’s largest consumer to resort to imports.

The market is having another good day - up 55 - The SFE Futures were up 50. Consumer inflationary expectations increased to 3.5% this month, up from 3.2% in July. 19 stock have hit a fresh yearly high today: Some of the notables include: Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Computershare (CPU), Domino Pizza (DMP), Liquefied Natural (LNG), Mitchell Communications (MCU), Premier Investments (PMV) and Webjet (WEB).

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 11-8-09

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The SFE Futures down 1 point overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight – down 2.95% and 5.00%. BHP down 2.42% in the UK, RIO down 3.24%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3732c, down 44c on last night’s close. Metals weaker except for Nickel - Copper down 0.26%, Nickel up 2.90%, Zinc down 2.67%, Aluminium down 2.62%, Lead down 1.49%, Oil price down 33c or 0.47% to $70.60. Gold price down $12.60 to $947. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.771% down from 3.854%. A$ up to 83.74c versus 83.49c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down small. VIX Volatility Index up 0.93% to 24.99

Slow night on no economic news and dwindling company results. Lowest volume in 2 weeks. US$ up against the Euro on worries about European economic recovery. The euro/US$ rate has now retreated for five successive trading days. FOMC Meeting on Wednesday night - we’ll wake up to it on Thursday morning - rates will be left at 0-0.25% with some debate about whether the Fed will make any changes to its $300bn debt repurchase program after the The US Treasury auctions $37bn worth of 3 year notes tonight. GE Capital and Credit Suisse issued $3.5bn of corporate bonds overnight.  The Bank of England rather disappointingly extended theirs last week on expectations of a slow recovery. McDonalds up 2% on sales numbers. Housebuilders reversed Friday’s 7% rally.

The market is up 2 today. The SFE Futures were down 1 this morning. NAB’s Business confidence index has hit its highest level in 2 years, up 6 points in July to +10, Business conditions also increased 3 points in July from June to +1.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 10-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 41 points overnight. BHP up 0.56% in ADR form overnight, RIO down 1.78%. BHP up 0.95% in the UK, RIO down 2.90%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3858c, up 58c on last night’s close. Metals rebound again – Copper up 2.06%, Nickel up 0.10%, Zinc up 2.69%, Aluminium up 1.38%. Oil price down 99c to $70.93. Gold price down $3.40 to $959. Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.854% up from 3.746%. A$ down to 83.49c versus 84.00c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index unchanged. VIX Volatility Index down 3.54% to 24.76

S&P 500 up for the fourth week in a row. Volumes in the US market running 24% down on last year. Strong session for the US$ up 1.2% against a basket of currencies. Better than expected employment numbers will cause a good rally here today after our market fell 27 on Friday in nervousness about the number. 247,000 jobs lost against consensus of 325,000. Unemployment at 9.4% against consensus of 9.6%. June consumer credit numbers were down for a fifth consecutive month and provided a reminder that scope for a near term rebound in household spending is limited. Quote of the night: “The downturn has ended but the recovery hasn’t begun”. Housebuilders had a very strong Friday night in the US on the back of a good set of results from Beazer Homes (up 15.4%). That added to better than expected Pending Homes sales numbers last week and fed the recovery in the housing sector which was up 7.2% and up 13% for the week. Good for BLD, JHX and CSR today.

The market is up 44. Good start to the week - the market is up 44. The SFE Future were up 41 this morning. IRESS Market Technology (IRE), Biota Holdings (BTA), Customers (CUS), Mincor Resources (MIN) and Premier Investments (PMV) have all hit a fresh yearly high.