Squawk Box Europe – Bill McLaren

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX DAILY CHART

There is a chance, a probability for a high today or Monday. When the July “False Break” low was hit I indicated three probabilities. A new leg up running to a minimum 1247 in 90 to 99 calendar days, a secondary high or fast rally that exhausts before a new high usually 7/8 of the range down in 60 to 65 calendar days. Or a lower double top and this is where the index is now located. So as the index moves into these time window we need to look at the wave structure, volume, price level and the pattern of the trend to confirm the probability. The index is at the “OBVIOUS” resistance of the previous high and now within the time window at 180 days.

There is a 5 wave structure up (5 or 3of 3), volume has been decreasing but not unusual if the trend were up at this stage, but the pattern of trend is not setting up well. Notice how small the daily ranges have become. High points and tops tend to have some volatility. Notice the expansion of ranges during the January top and the April top and in this case the ranges are narrowing. If there is a move down it is possible to see just one to three days down and resumption of the trend due to the resistance being “obvious.”

Running out cycles from the July low has 45 days on the 15th and if a low could indicate a 90 day move up. If this is a counter trend rally in a down trending market the highest probability is to run out 60 to 65 days or out to the first week in September. If there is a high point now it should not exceed 1134. I don’t like the odds for a top due to the small range days and the probability the move down could be a small counter trend down. The small range days leaves a possibility of a large spike up. If today can not advance following yesterday’s reversal up and a daily low is broken I’ll consider a short term move down to trade but I doubt the trend reversal. I hate those small range days as it usually indicates support coming in at high levels and an exhaustion up might be necessary to eliminate the buyers.

GOLD

The two weeks ago I said gold would go to 154 to 157 for a low at 50% of the last leg up. We are now looking for this rally to fail and confirm a downtrend into one of the major support. The move down to 50% of the last leg up to consolidated that leg up. I felt the entire trend since 2008 needed to be consolidated so we are looking for this rally to fail and run down to ¼ of the major range which is the minimum move down to correct or consolidate a major trend or 1122. Once gold establishes a downtrend there is a fast rally as occurred in this uptrend as noted with arrows and this occurs in almost all up trends. So we are looking for evidence this rally will fail at a price above 1212 and possibly on the 12th of August at 1220. If the index runs past 12 trading days there is no high in place and a new high is likely. The pattern of the downtrend was weak so we need solid evidence to conclude a lower high is in place. But that is what we are looking to occur.

Source: McLaren Report

Richard Russell: “A hard rain lies ahead”

Love him or hate him, 85-year old Richard Russell is the doyen of investment letter writers – having been at it for more than half a century – and his views as expressed in his daily Dow Theory Letters always make for stimulating reading. The paragraphs below summarize the R man’s “big picture” view of the U.S. stock market.

“I want to say that I have a number of reasons for being convinced we have been in an upward correction [referring to the rally that commenced in March 2009] in an ongoing primary bear market. Some of this is based on my interpretation of the 50% Principle, plus my analysis of the very poor action of the “internal market” [i.e. market breadth] over recent weeks.

“I envision the Dow dropping to test, and possibly violate, the 6,547 level. I don’t know whether this will take place this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it does. It would not surprise me if the Dow tests the 6,547 level. And if that happens, I can almost guarantee the US will have sunk into the much-feared “double-dip” recession.

“If the US begins to shrink into a double-dip recession, I expect the Obama administration to go ‘wild’ with new stimuli and ‘make-work’ programs, all of which will be financed with higher taxes (‘soak the rich’) and a further major expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. I would also expect every central bank in the world to simultaneously open their money-printing spigots wide, wide, wide.

“Conclusion in a nutshell: the secret of the forthcoming picture lies with the action of the U.S. stock market. Again I’ll remind my subscribers that the function of the stock market is to discount the future, not to mirror the present. All news is history. Or as Wall Street puts it, “news known is news discounted”.

“One of the biggest mistakes amateurs make is to think something they know is unknown and not already discounted by the market. Despite this, the media insist on describing every move of the stock market as being a reaction to some current event or some new government statistic. They couldn’t be further off the mark. As I read it, the poor action of the current stock market is telling us that the future for the U.S. is bearish and a hard rain lies ahead.

“At this juncture, sophisticated, wealthy people are not concerned with increasing their fortunes, rather they are searching for ways to conserve what wealth they have.”

Source: Dow Theory Letters, July 19, 2010 & http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/21/richard-russell-%E2%80%9Ca-hard-rain-lies-ahead%E2%80%9D/

Goldman’s Global Leading Inidicator Rolls Over

“Our improved GLI comes at a particularly important time for assessing the cycle. Although our original GLI had not shown a clear peak, we have pointed out for some time that it has been distorted by trending issues in the past few months and that signs ‘under the hood’ have pointed to some slowing in momentum. The improved GLI shows that message more clearly, with a peak now visible there. This suggests that the pace of industrial growth is set to decelerate, although from extremely high levels, an outcome that would be consistent with our GDP forecasts.

Markets are increasingly focused on what this kind of slowing in momentum will mean. As usual at this point in the cycle, the key issue is the extent of deceleration. The acceleration phase in recovery inevitably ends and that point was always likely to come in 2010H1. But, as we show once again, while that shift means a more moderate picture for risk assets, the deceleration is generally only a clear negative event if the slowdown is severe. Although our US forecast is still firmly below consensus, our global forecast does not envisage a sharp slowdown. That said, we will continue to pay close attention to the incoming data on this front, starting with the new release of the GLI tomorrow.”

What does it all mean for the various asset classes?  Not surprisingly, when the GLI is in decline equities tend to under perform, bonds outperform, volatility spikes and credit spreads widen:

“Within equities, the performance differentials between periods when the GLI is rising and falling are on average very large, although of course heavily influenced by the impact of serious downturns and recessions. The differences are strongest in emerging markets (EM) and in cyclical equities (our Wavefront growth basket shows that cyclicals tend to outperform strongly in ‘up’ phases and underperform strongly in ‘down’ phases).

Commodities show a similar pattern. But the relationship is strongest for industrial metals including copper (this is true even if they are excluded from the GLI), and least strong for gold and other precious metals. Interestingly, at least over the sample period here, oil has behaved with a strong cyclical bias too.

Bonds display the opposite behaviour, with a strong tendency for yields to fall when the GLI is falling and significant rises when the GLI is rising. That tendency is largest in the US market (front and back) but visible in other majors. There is also some tendency for the yield curve to steepen more when the GLI is falling.

Unsurprisingly, given the other results, credit spreads and equity volatility (as measured by the VIX) also tend to move significantly higher on average during phases when the GLI is falling and narrow when it is rising. These differences have been extremely pronounced in the recent downturn and—as we have described elsewhere—tend to be most dramatic at the ends and beginnings of cycles.

Experience in FX is more mixed. In general EM FX tend to perform better when the GLI is rising than falling and, within the G10, the commodity currencies are by far the most reliably related on the positive side to phases of the GLI. That said, the GBP, SEK and NOK are all confirmed to be more ‘cyclical’ in this simple analysis than the EUR. On the other side, the CHF is the least cyclical of the G10. Within the G3, the message is more mixed—and more varied over time—but there is a modest tendency over the long term for the USD to do better when the GLI is deteriorating.”

Source: GS – http://www.scribd.com/doc/33861708/GoldmanSachs-Global-Economics-Weekly-20100630

Comming Soon – webIress

Share Trading Tips – CFDs

TRADE THE FACTS – the same rules apply to CFDs as they do to share trading – In essence, they’re both about getting the direction of the instrument correct. Trading on rumours is a classic investor trait, which can often lead to losses as the event never materialises and the share price falls back.

DIVERSIFICATION -overexposure in one particular asset class can quickly lead to losses (and gains). Diversifying your risk is well regarded amongst the most successful investors as the best way to reduce risk. Reducing risk can come in a variety of guises from investing in different sectors, taking short as well as long positions – creating a market neutral portfolio and trading across different markets. The most popular way of diversifying is by taking a position in an index, as opposed to the individual constituents. This way the impact of a large movement in a particular share, or even sector, will have less of an impact. Although you should always place a stop on your positions, it is particularly prudent with more exposed portfolios.

DO YOUR RESEARCH-most CFD trading firms provide a range of research resources including charting, news and company information to keep you informed and help you make informed investment decisions. Keep yourself informed and up to date by making the most of the research centre.

DON’T OVER TRADE – every investor has their own style of trading and you must decide what works for you. Just because you have the ability to trade frequently, doesn’t mean you have to! With competitive commissions and a high liquidity, the FX market is a classic example of where there can be literally dozens of trading opportunities throughout the day. You don’t have to trade every one of them to have a successful day.

CUTTING LOSSES - you will have losing trades. Decide on the amount you are willing to lose before you place the trade and stick to it. If you haven’t got the self-discipline to trade out of a losing position, place a stop on the trading platform and let the system do the hard work for you. The most successful traders are those who are very regimental in their use of stops. Quite simply, they rarely lose more money than they were initially prepared to lose. There are plenty of more opportunities, as long as you have retained the capital to take advantage of them!

UNDERSTANDING YOUR MARKET – most CFD firms provide access to a range of global financial markets for you to trade. This wide selection is not an invitation to trade every market possible – it’s to provide a choice. As well as fully understanding the market and the news and data which impact its movements, make sure you fully understand how Barclays Stockbrokers offers the instruments and under what terms. Trade what you know.

CREATE TRADING TARGETS -every trade should be entered into with one clear exit target if the trade is profitable and another for a losing trade. Limit and Stop orders are crucial to helping you achieve this. Don’t let a short-term trade become a long-term investment by not placing a stop. Moving your stop loss closer to the market price as your position becomes profitable allows greater flexibility in setting targets. You don’t have to call the very top or bottom of the market to regularly make money.

DON’T BE EMOTIONAL – CFDs are a very exciting way of trading, but don’t let emotion take over. The market is never wrong – and don’t try to prove otherwise. Sometimes the greatest discipline is to avoid the trade altogether. Like any good dealmaker – if the price isn’t right, walk away. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

MANAGING YOUR MONEY – thrilling, exhilarating, gripping…. but these emotions will become few and far between without a sound, business-like approach to your CFD trading. Before you even start – only risk what you can afford to lose. Once you have established what proportion of your investment funds should be apportioned to CFDs you need to further break down your collateral into how much you are willing to lose on each individual trade. Then stick to this!

What’s all this CFD HYPE : CFDs Explained

Contracts for Difference are contracts between a trader and a CFD provider, who will at the close of the contract, exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the underlying index, share, commodity, per the amount of specified CFD contracts.

A CFD is very different from the traditional trading techniques as it is not a purchase of the nominated investment, but trading on its speculated price movement. The main idea of CFDs is the power to be in a position to trade higher volumes than standard trading while using less initial capital.

The buyer of the contracts is needed to pay commission to enter the contract, and fixed interest on the remaining cost of the borrowed amount, till they decide to finish the contract, at which time they are paid the price difference. The purchaser may choose on either side – buy ) or sell.

Advantages of Contracts For Difference vs standard share buying

The key difference between conventional share buying and CFD purchasing is that purchasing a CFD is done on leverage ( generally between five pc to thirty five percent for actively traded stocks ), both shares and CFDs participate in all company actions, both purchasers receive dividends but only the purchaser of the share is able to vote and receive the franking credits.

With CFDs one isn’t entitled to these rights, which will enable CFD sellers to sell with ease. This makes CFDs a good trading product. The leverage and capability to short sell gives power and flexibility.

Unlike futures, CFDs don’t have an expiry date, so one can cling to them for as long as they desire. CFDs open up a completely new trading world, with the ability to trade shares, indices and commodities. CFD trading is the flexible new way to trade.

If you don’t have the cash needed to trade shares immediately trading CFDs can offer you the exposure needed to make a profit from tiny percentage moves on the base share price . The leverage level offered by the CFD provider magnifies the underlying movement of the stock. Most providers set differing leverage levels and you’ll find the best level that suits you trading style.

If you have ever traded, you know how vital it is to use stop losses for capital preservation, particularly when using a leveraged product.

CFDs let you cut your losses quickly and leave your profits to run. This ability to quickly exit at the prevailing market price allows for greater risk control.

CFD reflects the price of the underlying equity. Therefore , you will always know what the market price is of your shares and know what you can sell out at.

Placing automated Stop Loss orders can exit you out of ideas that go against you while you are busy in your everyday activities.

How To Limit Your Loss In CFD Trade

Many people believe that CFD trading isn’t safe. Obviously, you don’t really have control over the market. However, CFDs are another financial products where you can invest in any way you prefer. And that’s where the risk comes in. If you wish to be an adventurous type in your trades, you can trade CFDs in a risky way if you don’t manage your money correctly and trade well beyond your means. It may seem like a good approach at the time, because it means your wins have high returns, but then so will your losses and also you could immediately wipe out your trading money.

Even so, you aren’t trading the markets to get rid of all of your money. Losses are unavoidable. But your goal as a trader is to gain bigger in the markets than you lose. You can lessen your risks when you concentrate on the golden rule of trading that is to”make it possible for your profits run and chop your losses short.”

For instance, you can use leverage in a safe and responsible way. CFD trade provides you with a huge leverage on your trading capital. You can even decide on incredibly low levels of leverage. Therefore, you are in control of how you use your leverage in a non-risky manner. When you are getting started it would be wise to keep your leverage at a minimum and don’t trade beyond your means. If the average leverage of a trade is 10%, then put 10% to 15% of your capital into your CFD trade account and trade it up to the whole amount of your trading capital, not beyond it. You can then offset the rest of your capital into a high yield savings account to offset the overnight financing charges of your CFD trades.

Another way of reducing your risks is not over trading. Over trading occurs when you are trading greater than you should – beyond your funds means and endangering a bigger amount on each trade. Target the amount of trades and also the size you are trading. You most likely have the attitude that the faster your trade, the more you gain. Or you feel like clicking on a trade when you’re alone, sitting in front of your computer. Then, you are in risk of over trading. This can lead to higher brokerage costs. And over trading can interfere with your mindset as a trader in the long run.

With these circumstances in the market, it is advisable to have a trading strategy. You’ll want to have a trading strategy before you decide to invest. You need to map out a trading strategy that you can stick to when you are finally trading CFDs..

Cfd Report- Find a Great Cfd Broker or Forex Broker

Contracts for Differences Explained

As the name suggests, Contracts for difference (CFD) is an agreement entered upon by two parties, whereby they decide to exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of a stock. CFDs mirror the performance of a share or an index. Contracts for difference (CFDs) can be traded on equities (shares), index trades and commodities. CFDs allow investors to take long or short positions, and unlike futures contracts have no fixed expiry date, standardised contract or contract size. CFDs are traded on margin, and the profit/loss is determined by the difference between the buy and the sell price. CFDs are instruments that offer exposure to the markets at a small percentage of the cost of owning the actual share. CFDs provide an excellent vehicle for short term trading strategies and are the preferred vehicle amongst hedge funds and professional traders.

WHY CFD’s

CFD trading is growing in popularity increasingly quickly, asretail investors recognise their benefits. CFDs use the power of leverage to trade which is one of the key reason they are such a powerful tool. CFDs give the owner the benefits of share ownership without physical ownership of the underlying security. Contracts for Difference are strictly for the active trader, someone who is skilled enough to use the flexibility and agility these holdings offer. CFD’s are traded in a similar way to ordinary shares. CFD brokers are now mostly online and use electronic platforms, which makes the trading routine a lot faster. CFDs can also be used for hedging and so can also reduce overall portfolio risk. CFDs can be used for short selling, Margin Lending does not allow this. CFDs tend to carry a lower interest rate component than Margin Lending. CFDs are short term trading instruments while Margin Lending is more for medium to long term investment strategies.

CFD BROKER

CFD brokers are now mostly online and use electronic platforms, which makes the trading routine a lot faster. If you already know about CFD, you might be interested in finding CFD Brokers near you. Some brokers, use real prices with no hidden charges added to the bid/offer spread, and fees are levied separately. Others claim to offer commission-free trades, but the cost is usually factored into the spread.

CFD brokers and providers: How to Select One

The choice of an online CFD broker is one of the keys to successful CFD Trading System.

These 7 points must be considered when choosing a CFD broker online:

1. Your commission or brokerage fee in each direction

CFD Most have a placement of approximately 0.1 to 0.4% of traffic. There is also a minimum cost of about $ 10-20, with commercial operations of small influences considered. Some brokers have no commission. Some CFD brokerage commissions are negotiable, or are different depending on whether you are a company in the industry, so do not forget to ask us!

2. Their margins

Many manufacturers are CFD margin of about 10-20%. This Menas have some utility, 5-10 to 1. There are some CFD market maker that required a margin of 30-80%, depending on the CFD storage that you want to do business. So if you use a lot of work to verify the amount of debt financing available.

3. How many CFDs are traded

Do you need the top 100, 200 or even 300 of stock trading?

4. How many are shortable CFD

Many CFD shortable than their underlying shares, which are not shortable. This is one of the many reasons why CFD trading has become more popular. Even if you have an extensive list of CFD shortable for your trading system works correctly, then check the detailed list of suppliers CFD shortable if possible. Sometimes they are available form their website, and sometimes not.

5. Charging interest

Is considered a cost of interest on long positions for more than a day. Using CFD brokers that prices vary a bit ‘and are about the overnight interest a bank or cash. The rate of long positions is usually 3% above the reference rate. If you are short range, so the interest will be paid to you, with speeds of 3% is taken under the lid.

6. What are the order types that are available ?

Some CFD providers do place your order at the point where the market is closed, and when the market is open.

Other suppliers on the other hand, it must give orders for positions in the CFD market hours.

7. Offer Direct Market Access CFDs, where prices are the same as the underlying shares or the distribution is widened?

Profit Using Contracts For Difference

Trading coaches everywhere are often asked the question ‘What CFD day trading strategies are the best to be consistently profitable in the markets’.

Today we’ll uncover the top 5 reasons why day traders love to trade Contracts for Difference over futures or options trading.

1. No overnight interest charges

Whilst the financing for CFD positions is relatively small, it is still a debit to your trading account and ranges between plus or minus 2%-3% over your countries cash rate. With interest rates so low at present this is a negligible debit but you can avoid it by closing your position before the trading day is over.

2. You get access to a huge amount of leverage

Leverage is obviously a double edged sword and CFD traders know this first hand. A huge advantage of trading CFDs is the leverage you get access to and many providers allow up to 20 times your account size.

If you had a $5,000 position and make a 5% return, you would make $250. With leverage you can leverage your position 10 times and for the same trade you’d make $2,500.

Don’t forget that if the trade goes against you then you will lose 10 times the amount.

3. The ASX 100 stocks have plenty of liquidity

The beauty of CFDs is that they mirror the liquidity of the underlying market and if you stick to the ASX top 100 stocks then you will have no worries with liquidity there.

Direct Market Access CFDs are the best option for active short term trades as there are no requotes compared to a Market Maker.

4. Your Trading Commissions rates are low

When CFDs first hit Australia they were commission free which seemed quite incredible at the time. Since then they have increased brokerage to around 0.1% of the trade size or $10 minimum which is fantastic. Certainly for short term day traders, access to lower brokerage is exactly what they are looking for.

In fact most CFD brokers allow you the opportunity to trade index and commodities commission free.

5. Opportunities trading CFDs with current volatility is huge

Day traders need the markets to move as there is nothing worse than a sideways market when you need to get in and out intraday.

Profiting from short term moves requires a volatile market and when you combine volatile markets with CFD trading you have an incredible opportunity for profit.

Advantages of CFD Trading For Traders

CFD means Contract for Difference.

There are various advantages of CFD Trading for traders.

Main benefits of this Trading are:

1. Trading on Margin: By using margins, CFD Trading gives an opportunity to the individuals involved to hold more value than they actually contribute. Contract for Difference allows the traders to get higher returns on the investment.

2. No purchase of assets is involved: In Contract for Difference Trading, traders are not required to purchase the assets. This trading involves an agreement between the broker and the trader. This agreement is related to the value of the asset and no purchasing is done.

3. Stamp Duty not required: In case of CFD Trading, stamp duty is not required. This is because there is no purchase involved.

4. Traders get Dividend: Another advantage for traders involved in this trading is that time to time they earn relevant dividends as well. This is possible only when you hold CFD position in an organisation at the time of the dividend pay out. When the stock of the product or the company will rise, the traders involved will also get benefits from it. With this principle, CFD gives trader an opportunity to earn dividend.

5. Interest gets credited: Brokerage firm pays interest to the trader on the money tied up in short position CFD.

6. Short shares ability: If traders are able to predict the movement of the shares i.e. that the share’s value will go down and the same thing happens, traders earn money. It is simple In case of CFD as in this situation; the trader has not actually purchased any shares. The trader earns money even when the share’s value goes down as they predicted something and it actually happened.

7. After hour facility: There are several CFD companies that allow its traders to actually purchase Contract for Difference even after the time is over. This plays a very important role for people who are in this trading for second source of income.

CFD Trading vs Traditional Share Dealing

 Many investment groups and hedge funds have found a great deal of success with CFDs for more than ten years in the ASX stock market as an alternative means of investment to traditional share trading.

If, for example, the margin on a Stock you are interested in was 10%, establishing a position of $100,000 would only require a deposit of $10,000. Any running profits that you make can actually be used as margin to esablish new positions but any losses would require extra funds.

While stamp duty on shares has in the opinion of some traders reduced the cost effectiveness of ‘day-trading’ traditional stocks and shares, CFDs are exempt and this seems to have added to their appeal. CFDs are liable to capital gains tax but losses can be offset against future profits for the purposes of tax. In the same way that you would buy shares, when you trade in CFDs the contract purchase is the same.. So if you wanted exposure to 1,000 shares in a company, youd have to sell 1,000 contracts .

 With CFDs the charges and commissions involved in a trade are not part of the spread, because of this, the CFD spread quote will be very close to the underlying price of the share or commodity that you are following. CFD’s also mimic almost every aspect of actually owning the underlying share or market, so if you hold a position long enough, you receive the benefit of any dividends being paid on the underlying shares.

CFDs will appeal to different trading styles. It’s important to note that they should not be regarded as substitutes for long term investment or saving, as more citizen try to take control of their financial destiny, theres been a growing realisation that going short is a legitimate means of trading in market.

Trade Futures With CFDs

Contracts for difference or CFD trading is a type of trading where traders can trade on a short term basis and get some profits out of it. CFDs profits or loss normally arise from the disparity in the charge of the future when and at the end of the buying period. Hence, the outcome depends on the performance of a share in the market. This is usually a contract between two people and depending on the position you have taken, you can either gain or lose. When trading CFDs you have two options in that you can trade long or short. Trading long means that you anticipate the prices will rise while trading short is when you expect the prices to fall.

When you decide to trade CFDs, you have to give a certain amount of money as commission for the trade. The commission normally depends on the value of the asset in question since it is a percentage of the value of the asset. CFD trading accounts give the advantage of being able to trade day and night. These trading accounts come with different features which make it very important for any trader to compare Cfds trading accounts to find the most efficient.

One way to compare CFD trading accounts is to look at the commissions involved when buying and selling. The other is to find any other underlying fees you may be required to pay for all your trades if any. You can also compare Contracts for difference trading accounts based on whether it is possible to trade on other investment options apart from futures and whether the account provides all the tools you will need in the trading process. The one thing that should give you more reason to trade Cfd is the fact that you get all advantages associated with leveraging.

Three Bad Reasons for Pursuing Trading as a Career

When I talk with traders who are having problems, I often find that the root problem is that they have pursued work in the financial markets for the wrong reasons. Here are three of the most common problematic reasons that draw people to trading:

1) The Thrill of Gain – While this often masquerades as a passion for markets, a little observation reveals that these traders have little interest either in markets that they don’t trade or in markets while they are not trading. The interest in market action often reveals addictive patterns, in which the roller coaster rides of gains and losses become more valued than the achievement of a smooth, upward sloping equity curve. This leads to overtrading and painful emotional ups and downs.

2) The Need for Independence – These traders are drawn to markets because they don’t want to have to answer to someone else in a structured job. The problem with this pattern is that the very need for independence that leads people away from structured careers also leads them away from the kind of structured practice and preparation that are necessary for trading success. Just as these traders don’t want to be tethered to a 9-to-5 career, they rebel against being tethered to markets. This shows up as poor discipline, poor preparation, and difficulty sustaining even modest efforts at performance development (such as keeping daily journals).

3) The Need to Make It Big – Many traders try to use performance in the markets, not as an expression of their competence, but as a desperate attempt to prove it. They don’t feel successful in other endeavours and are using markets to try to be a success in life. As a result, most of their self-esteem eggs are in the trading basket. That becomes threatening and stressful when inevitable trading slumps occur. Worse still, such traders often feel a need to make more and more to fill the hole of lacking self worth, eventually leading them to take too much risk and blow up.

What is the common theme among the three groups of traders? They are using trading to act out (and try to resolve) personal issues that are separate from risk/reward and opportunity in markets. Their needs lead them to place trades more for psychological reasons than logical ones.

Source: Brett Steenbarger

10 Rules for Better Trading

Rule 1: Believe you can win. If other traders can do well in the market, so can you. However, if you don’t have enough courage and confidence in yourself, you will never achieve success. The events over the past year have tested many people in this regard and some now think the game is rigged against them. Nothing could be farther from the truth as opportunities remain. Those who will win in the markets first start by believing they can do it. Then they back up that strong belief with serious hard-work and determination to find their trading edge. However, it starts with you first having faith in yourself.

Rule 2: Don’t be seduced by results. You must stay in the present and focused on executing each trade to the best of your ability. Don’t let yourself think about how much you’re going to win (or lose) in the market or how great of a trader you are or not, but instead focus on what matters most – each and every trade you make. Do that and the results will take care of themselves.

Rule 3: Sulking won’t get you anything. The worst thing you can do for your prospects of winning is to get down when things don’t go well. If you start feeling sorry for yourself or thinking the trading gods are conspiring against you, you’re not focused on the next trade. Good traders readily accept their mistakes and move on to the next trade. They don’t let one bad trade carry onto the next one.

Rule 4: Beat them with patience. Every time you have the urge to make an aggressive trade, go with the more conservative one. You’ll always be OK. The moment you get impatient, bad things happen. In tough markets, stay patient and let others beat themselves.

Rule 5: Ignore unsolicited advice. You’ll have lots of well-meaning friends and experts who want to give you advice. Don’t accept it. In fact, stop them before they can say a word. Their comments will creep into your mind when you are trading and conflict with your own strategy. If you’ve worked on your game, commit to the plan and stay confident with it.

Rule 6: Embrace your personality. The key is to find what works best for you. There are many approaches out there, but there is only one trading approach that will utilize your best skills and talent to create and sustain an edge. The worst mistake you can make is to simply embrace a strategy of someone else that doesn’t match your own personality and strengths.

Rule 7: Have a routine to lean on. Every trader should follow a mental routine on every trade. It keeps you focused on what you have to do, and when the pressure is on, it helps you manage your nerves. You may not have control over the market, but you have control on how you trade the market. Having a routine will inject consistency that will keep you calm under pressure.

Rule 8: Find peace in the market. The market has to be your sanctuary, the thing you love, and you can’t be afraid of making mistakes. Yes, you’ll experience both good and bad times, but you must enjoy and revel in the challenge.

Rule 9: Test yourself. Don’t look for easy trades and setups at all times. Test yourself by working hard trades and difficult markets in order to test and improve your skills. For example, if you’re uncomfortable with trading options, spend a month just trading options. If you’re uncomfortable with shorting stocks, spend a month shorting stocks. We only get better if we constantly test what we think is most difficult.

Rule 10: Find someone who believes in you. Having confidence in yourself is important, but it helps to have someone who believes in you, too, whether it’s a spouse, a friend, a teacher, or a mentor. No man’s success can be entirely attributed to his own actions. You must surround yourself with people who believe in you at all times.

This is a powerful set of trading rules that will serve you well.

Source: Damien Hoffman

Brokerage On Index CFDs – How Do CFD Brokers Make Their Money?

What is US Dollar Index. When anyone starts trading financial products for the first time, the trading costs involved are one of the most important criteria to consider. That is what makes trading index CFDs such a great product as they are generally commission free.

So the question most people ask is how can CFD brokers allow people to trade index CFDs commission free?

The reason CFD brokers allow you to trade index CFDs commission free is the fact that they have a spread on the index that you are trading. The spread is the difference between the first buyer and the first seller.

If we were to have a look at the Aussie 200 index for example the spread may be two or three points. The first buyer might be at 4000 and the first seller at 4002. As you can see there is a two point spread and so if we traded at one dollar per point then buying at 4002 and selling at 4000 would result in a two dollar loss. That two dollar loss is in effect your brokerage.

Trading Index CFDs

So as you can see there is no commission when trading an index CFD as in this example, but you will notice that if you got in and out when the market had not moved you would suffer a $2 loss. So whilst you may consider that you are getting the product commission free you are in effect being charged a small amount of brokerage. The great thing about this product is that the spread on an index CFD is usually kept to a minimum.

Free brokerage or $100 round trip?

There is no doubt that when you first starting out an index CFD at $1 per point is a brilliant option to consider. However, you can begin to see if you traded 25 contracts at 2 point spread your effective brokerage would be $50 to buy and $50 to sell making it a $100 round-trip.

Given the recent volatility of the Australian market and worldwide markets it becomes easy to see why one dollar per point is a very viable option. Even on the Australian market, which may move 100 points a day, at $1 per point you could be making or losing $100 a day.

Beware excessive overnight financing charges

The other reason CFD brokers are able to provide an index CFD commission free is that they charge an overnight financing rate which may be as high as the RBA rate plus or minus 4%. This means if you are holding an index CFD trade for a year you would be charged 4.25% +4% which equals 8.25% per annum calculated back as a daily rate. Always keep in mind that this financing rate is charged on your total position size which means it can get quite expensive allowing the CFD broker to pocket that finance. Find more information about Forex News Straddling Strategy here.

Do CFDs Suck?

Many novice traders blame CFDs for their losses and even may say CFDs suck. Losing money can trigger an emotional response and novice traders may blame someone else for losing money.

Losing money is not due to the use of CFDs (Contracts for Difference) it is the decisions that the trader made. It is very important as a trader that you take responsibility for your actions, both win and lose.

Leverage Is A Double Edged Sword

CFDs trade on leverage where a small amount of money down gives you access to a large position. This can result in very quick gains or losses as the market moves. If you lose money trading CFDs do not blame CFDs and say that CFDs suck.

Using stops on every trade is an important part of your risk management. If you do not use stops then you may not be ready to become a CFD trader.

CFD Brokers Deliberately Hit Your Stops

Some traders think CFDs suck because the broker knows where your stop sits and can then move the price to these levels. After hitting your stop the market then turns around and moves again in the direction you expected. Despite being correct you end up losing money.

CFD brokers are not inclined to chase your stops as they have other more important things to do. Sometimes a trade will hit my stop and reverse and at other times it will move very close to the stop and reverse. It can go either way. Place your stops thoughtfully and in a place where they will not be hit by normal movement.

All the traders in the market create the price movement and you are giving a CFD broker too much credit if you think they can move the market. Accept that you will be stopped out at times even if you have placed your stop correctly.

Re-quotes Rip Off Traders

It is possible to think that CFDs suck because you are re quoted a higher price when you try to buy CFDs through a market maker. Re-quotes are not a rip off they are used because the quantity you wish to trade can not be traded at the price level you specified. There is simply not enough volume in the underlying market.

The difference between the re-quote and the price you placed your order at is called slippage. This is accepted when buying stock as you may execute some of your order at one price and some at a higher price where there is sufficient volume. Your average price is then higher than your original order.

A market maker can only execute the whole order or none of it, partial fills are not possible, so a re-quote is provided at a price level that allows them to execute the complete order. Re-quotes are not about ripping traders off, but just reflect the underlying execution of the order.

Trading Is Your Responsibility

It is never the trading instrument that is the cause of bad performance it ultimately is the trader. There is no point in blaming the market, the broker, your partner or CFDs it comes down to your decisions.

A trader must take responsibility for his or her results and with this belief system in place it is possible for the trader to change their outcomes. If you think the rest of the world is driving you crazy, you will have to send the rest of the world to a psychiatrist for you to get better.

Source: Jeff Cartridge

Stock Vs CFDs

Which is better to trade CFDs or stocks? The answer to this question is not obvious and it will depend on what you want to get from trading. Looking at CFDs vs Stock we will highlight the key differences.

Cash, All or Nothing

When trading stock you require 100% of the cash to buy the stock. It is possible to borrow some of this money to invest using a margin loan, but you will still be required to provide at least 30% – 40% of the amount of stock you are purchasing.

CFDs require only a small amount of cash up front to buy stock, as little as 3%. The profit potential from CFD trading is much larger than stocks with returns of up to 15 times possible.

When it comes to making the most of your capital CFDs win easily against stocks.

What Happens When It Doesn’t Work?

The other side of leverage is risk as leverage amplifies both gains and losses. The most you can lose when investing in stocks is 100% of your capital, assuming you have not borrowed any money to invest.

It is possible to lose more than 100% of the money you invested in the first place with CFDs, so risk management is very important.

While it is possible to manage your risk when trading CFDs in the battle of CFDs vs Stock the lack of leverage when trading stock makes risk management much easier with stock.

The Cost of Doing Business

Brokerage and interest charges are the two main costs of trading when looking at CFDs vs stock.

CFDs are more expensive than stocks when you consider finance charges, because there is no interest charged on stock.

It will depend on the balance between higher interest costs and lower CFD brokerage costs as to which is cheaper CFDs vs stock. The longer a position is held the advantage will swing in favour of the stock holder.

No Tax, Is That Possible?

One of the reasons that CFDs were originally developed was to get around stamp duty that was payable on stock purchases. CFDs were exempt from stamp duty.

Australian traders will notice a difference between CFDs vs Stock when it comes to tax. There are no franking credits attached to CFDs and the 12 month capital gain discount also does not apply. There are tax advantages to stocks in Australia.

Tax advantages vary dramatically from country to country so it is hard to call a definitive ruling here in the battle of CFDs vs stock.

CFDs vs Stock, The Winner Is

In conclusion in the battle of CFDs vs stock there is no clear winner, it will depend on what is most important to you. CFDs offer more upside potential with less capital investment due to the leverage available. The risk associated with CFDs is higher because of the same leverage, so managing risk is more important to the CFD trader than the stock trader.

CFDs can be cheaper with low transaction costs and work well for the active trader. If you wish to hold a position for months or more then stock has an advantage as there is no interest cost to pay. I personally prefer CFDs as I actively manage my risk and CFDs provide access to bigger upside.

Source: Jeff Cartridge

CFD Trading Introduction

What is CFD?

CFD is the Contract for Difference that is traded, from which, person profits from the changes in prices of shares, indices, commodities, currencies etc. in market.

If person bought CFD on the share, which is $4.00 and price goes up to $4.40, then that person makes the profit. Thus, in case 500 CFDs were bought, then person will make $200.

And profiting from increasing markets CFD trader will as well profit from the falling market that is known as the “Short Selling”.

CFD’s are also traded on the leverage & are famous for this cause. Leverage CFD generates in stock market is 10:1 that means CFD trader will profit very fast without any need to buy & own shares. It as well means trader will profit from smaller rises or else falls in market because of this leverage.

Even if though you are a normal person you will learn CFD Trading by the different courses, which are accessible and make substantial revenue in case you learn system & become very good at the CFD trading.

Benefits of CFD Trading

Leverage

Leverage increases profitability of the trader’s potential investment by 10:1

Short Selling

Also profiting from rising market, and CFD trading allows trader to gain from falling market

Shorter Trade Times

Leverage of CFD allows CFD trader to make some profits from small movements in a market. It means CFD trading will take place over some days to weeks instead having to own share for years on end in order to make the descent return.

Capability to Set-up Stop Losses

Stop loss is an ability to set predetermined level to minimize CFD traders losses. For example, if CFD was bought at around $42 and trader is worried it may go down, stop loss can be placed at, $41.50 so that in case it trades at that stage trader can automatically sell out the position prior to it goes lower.

Trade in Evenings

Lots of CFD traders have got day jobs, and checking share during day is impossible. The CFD suppliers allow traders to put trades in evening when market is closed. With “if done” stop loss order, CFD trader will not need to look at market during day. This choice is fast as well as makes it simple to profit by using a CFD advantage on every day basis.

Markets

With contracts for difference you have a huge range of markets starting with share markets (including American, European and Asian market), commodities, currencies, indices, interest rates and much more. Just one broker gives you access to all those markets. Besides you can also trade futures or spots.

No Stamp Duty

When buying shares in the UK you have to pay 0.5% stamp duty on every transaction (no need to pay stamp duty when you sell shares). With CFD you do not pay stamp duty as contracts for difference are derived product and thus you do not buy actual shares.

Trade Futures with CFDs

Futures trading involves people making contracts where the payments for the commodity involved are to be made in the future at a specific time. Usually, the buyer and seller know the value of the asset and both of them agree when the exchange is to be done. Futures trading with CFDs is where the buyer does not have to completely buy and own the commodity. This way, you do not have any rights over the shares or commodities for which you trade.

Contracts for difference or CFD trading is a type of trading where traders can trade on a short term basis and get some profits out of it. CFD profits or loss normally arise from the difference in the price of the future when and at the end of the buying period. Hence, the outcome depends on the performance of a share in the market. This is usually a contract between two people and depending on the position you have taken, you can either gain or lose. With CFD trading, you have two options in that you can trade long or short. Trading long means that you anticipate the prices will rise while trading short is when you expect the prices to fall.

When you decide to trade CFDs, you have to pay a certain amount of money as commission for the trade. The commission normally depends on the value of the asset in question since it is a percentage of the value of the asset. CFD trading accounts are offered by a number of companies and most of them give the advantage of being able to trade day and night. Thus, traders can access the market during the night and find contracts. These trading accounts come with different features which make it vital for any trader to compare CFD trading accounts to find the most efficient.

Many traders who use CFD trading accounts normally want to get all the benefits of trading futures without the need to own them. Perhaps the good thing with trading CFDs is the fact that you can control losses easily. This is because you can exit from trading anytime when you feel the prospects of gaining are slim. Anyone can trade CFDs since they are not complex and the costs involved are minimal.

One way to compare CFD trading accounts is to look at the commissions involved when buying and selling. The other is to find any other underlying fees you may be required to pay for all your trades if any. You can also compare CFD trading accounts based on whether it is possible to trade on other investment options apart from futures and whether the account provides all the tools you will need in the trading process. The one thing that should give you more reason to trade CFDs is the fact that you get all advantages associated with leveraging. This type of futures trading is quite common nowadays and this is because of the many advantages it provides.