Look at Commodities

The chart of WTI crude oil is very interesting to we bottom feeders. WTIC is on the verge of confirming a new uptrend and in fact, the break above the moving averages (green box) has held for three days. This is bullish. Next resistance levels are noted.

Interestingly, the XOI oil index is not leading and could be considered a bearish divergence. Either that or the oil stocks are in the process of holding support for a double bottom. Despite the bearish divergence, energy stocks could prove to be leaders at whatever point the broad market bottoms. NFTRH is only interested in relative strength leaders at whatever point the time is right to become temporarily bullish.

Copper has bottomed and is attempting to hold a break above resistance. Again, this is a very delectable chart to the bottom feeder. These bullish sentinels argue that there may be life yet in an inflationary world, although right now we cannot read anything more into these bottoms than temporary relief.

In what is likely to one day degenerate into a global war for resources and capital, the time has come to begin watching these commodities closely, now that the former commodity bull herd is obsessed with deflation. This is how the markets work my friends.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 4-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 25 point fall in the market this morning.BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight – up 4.44% and 0.84% respectively. Metals mostly up overnight – Copper up 4.55%, Zinc up 3% and Nickel 1.05%.
Aluminium down 0.23%. Oil price up 3.7% to $41.57. Oil managed to hold early advances but trading was volatile after the last few weeks of losses in the face of a continuing synchronized global downturn. Gold down $26.40 to $913.60. Bonds down with the 10 year yield up to %2.88255. A$/US$ up to 63.73c. January Pending home sales down 7.7%- worse than the 3.5% expected. Job losses
are continuing and consumer confidence remains at all-time lows. Treasury secretary Geithner reiterated in Congress that Obama’s budget deficit was required to make long-term investment in healthcare, energy and education – the comments didn’t support market buying. The market is down 47 – bit disappointing considering the 25 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Industrials the only sector up with Brambles outperforming, but most sectors struggling, most notably Property trusts. Energy stocks down despite the oil price bouncing overnight. 4th Q GDP Number is a bit of a horror – against consensus estimates for a small positive number of +0.2% the number has come out at -0.5%.

Tricom Today Stock Market Report 3-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 78 point fall in the market. BHP and RIO both down heavily in ADR form overnight – 7.85% and 9.9% respectively. Metals all down overnight – Copper down 3.26%, Zinc down 2.39% and Aluminium 1.79%. Nickel down 4.50%. Oil price down 4% to $40.07. Three-day rally over on the deteriorating outlook for the world economy. Gold down $2.50 to $940.00. Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.86%. A$/US$ down to 63.01c. The Bank of America’s CEO is saying the $20bn he borrowed from the government to buy out the failing Merrill Lynch last year was a ‘tactical mistake’.Materials and Energy stocks down 6.9% and 6.4%. The market is down 48 and in-line with the 87 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. It was down 97 at worst. Not a lot of company related news and no real theme this morning except everything’s down. One feature is Macquarie Group which has bounced from being down 4.8% to up 7.0% at its peak. No announcement and have yet to dig up a reason.
RBA Meeting Today – Decision at 2.30pm – Lots of opinions about what they will do. A Dow Jones newswire consensus of 18 economists suggest a consensus for a 25bp cut.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 24-2-09

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The market is down 40 doing a bit better than the 78 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning post the significant 3% plus falls in the US overnight. Property down the most again down 3.2% – Goodman Group down 12% early – had its recommendation cut by Macquarie Group yesterday after a recent profit warning. Results tomorrow. BHP and RIO down 1.6% and 1.8%. Industrials down 2.3% – Wesfarmers and Fosters down having gone ex dividend this morning. AMC and ASX also Ex dividend. Sonic Healthcare down 1.5% early on posting 1H NPAT up 21% to $136.5m. Aristocrat Leisure up 2.0% on the open posting FY NPAT of $101.2m down 59.1%, with final dividend to be 10c (already had a profit warning). Spark Infrastructure Ltd down 1.19% after posting a large fall in FY profit. Financials down 1.9% – Suncorp-Metway down 6% early on posting 1H NPAT of $258m, down 33% on-year with the CEO leaving next week. Macquarie Countrywide posted an in-line 1H NPAT loss of $714.1m with an interim distribution of 4c down 12% on the open. Macquarie Media booked a 1H net loss of $127.3m down 2.7% early. CBA is down 2.5% and underperforming the other banks today having announced they’d buy $2.25bn of Wizard Home Loan’s portfolio from GE, less than the $4bn worth previously suggested. Resources down 1.5% – Energy stocks
generally down on the lower oil price – Origin Energy up 0.3% as their 50.4% owned Contact Energy (NZ) posted in-line 1H NPAT down to NZ$25.1m. Oil Search Ltd posted FY NPAT up 128% to US$313.4m down 0.2%. Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd posted a 15% rise in 1H NPAT up 1.8%. Gold stocks mixed despite lower gold price – Sino Gold Mining posted net loss of $101.4m for the half up 1.6% early. St Barbara down 1.2% as it completes its share placement of $75m at 41c/share and posts 1H NPAT loss of 41.2m.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 23-2-09

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The market is down 46 after being down 90 earlier poor performance today underperforming the 3 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Property down 2.3% – all the big names down Westfield Group down 3.6% at midday. They have results this week. Caltex down 6.1% on broker downgrades this morning after results down 95% on Friday. All other energy stocks down on the lower oil price Friday. Gold stocks all up on the gold price breaking through the $1000 barrier Friday. Small miners mostly down on lower metal prices. Industrials down 4.6% – Fairfax down, Virgin Blue down, and Transfield Services down on results. Cochlear down nearly 4.4% at midday having gone ex dividend 80c. Macquarie Infrastructure down 7% and Macquarie Airports down 5.3% on suggestions that the Macquarie stable is being shorted whilst Macquarie Group remains protected by the shorting ban on financials  which comes off on Friday week. MQG still fell 14% last week. Financials down 1.3% following a turbulent session in the sector in the US Friday where financials were down 9% at one stage on concerns over the need for Citigroup and the Bank of America to be nationalised. Our Banks all down 1-2% around midday. ANZ down 2.5%.

Tricom Today Stock Market Report 16-2-09

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The market is down 36, down 59 at worst in-line now with the 22 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Most sectors down. BHP and RIO down 1.4% and 1.8%. Only energy, consumer staples and healthcare up slightly. Industrials down 3.0% with Brambles down 7% early on posting 1H NPAT of US$195.3m. Challenger up 6.4% on normalised net profit up 3.9% to $105.9m. Gold stocks mixed on the lower gold price. Energy stocks mostly
down despite the 10% jump in the oil price on March contract short covering. PanAust up 8% early on announcing production costs. Financials down 1.1%. Banks mixed. CBA down 4.1% after going ex dividend 113c.

Tricom Today 12-2-09

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The market is up 62 outperforming the 13 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Having a strong day after showing great resilience yesterday following a terrible night on Wall Street Tuesday. All sectors bar property up on the open. The resources sector isleading the way BHP up 1.9% and RIO in a trading halt pending results this afternoon and a deal with Chinas Chinalco buying US$12bn worth of assets and making a US$7bn investment in equity. Fortescue Metals up over 6% early on. Energy stocks up despite the fall in the oil price and the decline in US energy stocks overnight. Gold stocks continuing their rally Newcrest and Lihir up 4.1% and 5.7% on another $22 jump in the gold price. Smaller gold stocks doing better than that. Industrials up 2.1% – Coca-Cola posted solid results up 3.5% early on. Fosters pumpingup over 5% at 11am on no news. Other risers include Orica,United Group, Toll, Macquarie Airports on no obvious news. CBA up another 3.0% afterresults yesterday. NAB down again. Seems the switch out of ANZ and NAB into CBA continues with NAB and ANZ seen as most likely to cut dividends. Mining Services sector having a moment as well with Macmahon up 9.5% and Monadelphous up 4.6%. Bradken down 7.5% on results yesterday Goldman Sachs JB Were have cut their earnings numbers by 12% and 35% quoting debt concerns and an uncertain outlook.

Tricom Today 11-2-09

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The market is down 27, doing better than the 80 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning and is down just 1.1% despite a 4.6% fall on Wall St post a disappointing bank rescue plan which made it clear that there is no Obama miracle cure for the financial crisis after all. It has been terribly received in the US and criticized for a lack of detail. It seems the new administration are still making it up as they go along and have no convincing strategy to stop the financial crisis. Resources down 1.8% with metals all down. BHP down 2.8%. RIO up 1.9%. Energy stocks down on the lower oil price. Gold stocks mixed . Newcrest, Lihir and Sino Gold down, but smaller players up. One broker predicts another 3 year bull market in gold. Financials are down 0.7% – banks all down 1-2% early on with CBA up 0.7% and outperforming on the back of 1H results in-line with their profit upgrade last week. CBA will pay 113c dividend which goes ex on Monday. Property down 1.1% as Stockland Group posted a 1H NPAT loss of $726m with 1H revenue loss of $803m . SGP down 7% early on. Westfield down 1.0%.

Tricom Today 9-2-09

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The market is up 36 – up 59 at best this morning – underperforming the 85 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures. Financials up only 0.2% – bit disappointing after the 8% rise in US financials Friday ahead of the Obama Administration’s update on the new stimulus package due Monday. The resources sector up 3.6% on the back of BHP and RIO up 3.8% and 5.6% – following strong performances in the US overnight. Miners all up on the rise in metals prices Friday. Energy stocks mixed on the lower oil price. Industrials up 1.1% – Orica up 7.8% early. Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL) was down 12% on the open as it parent Coca-Cola Co ceased merger talks with Lion Nathan (LNN) over the weekend. LNN up 4% on the announcement.

Tricom Today 30-1-09

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The market is down 26 outperforming the 96 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Financials down 1.5% – banks down 1-2%. Resources down 1.1% on the lower oil and metal prices. Energy stocks up 0.9%. BHP and RIO down 1.8% and 3.3%. Base metal stocks mixed. Gold stocks doing well on the higher gold price overnight with the flight to precious metals continuing. Newcrest up 2.9% and Lihir up 4.4%. Property stocks doing the worst  down 3.4%. Westfield down another 4.5% and Stockland down 3.6%.