Tricom Today 2-2-09

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The market is down 20 compared to the 64 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Property down the most. Westfield down 6% in early trading having gone ex-dividend toady, now down 4%. Financials mixed. Resources down 0.5% with the fall in metals overnight and on the back of poor US economic numbers. BHP down 1.3% and RIO up 6.8% as it confirms it’s been in talks with Chinalco about the sale of its minority stakes in some of its operations reducing the need for a $6bn rights issue if the deal happens. Fortescue up 13% – on the back of its strong 1st H profit result late Friday – in-line with expectations with a strong cash position and record production. Gold stocks mostly up on the higher gold price Newcrest looking to raise $500 million in a fully underwritten equity placement.

Tricom Today 30-1-09

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The market is down 26 outperforming the 96 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Financials down 1.5% – banks down 1-2%. Resources down 1.1% on the lower oil and metal prices. Energy stocks up 0.9%. BHP and RIO down 1.8% and 3.3%. Base metal stocks mixed. Gold stocks doing well on the higher gold price overnight with the flight to precious metals continuing. Newcrest up 2.9% and Lihir up 4.4%. Property stocks doing the worst  down 3.4%. Westfield down another 4.5% and Stockland down 3.6%.

Gold – very bullish action

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold – very bullish action

“During the great gold bull markets of the 1970s to 1980, gold topped out at a price of 850 per ounce. For months now, gold has been ‘testing’ the 850 level, first rallying above 850 and then sliding below 850. Currently, February gold is trading at 891. I consider this to be very bullish action. The current gold action is taking place in the second phase of the new gold bull market. The second phase has seen many hedge funds and a small segments of the public become interested in gold.
“I believe the third speculative phase of the current gold bull market lies ahead. This is the phase where the public jumps wholesale into the market. It’s the phase where I expect to see a much higher, even frenzied, gold price. This final phase of the gold bull market will be accompanied by international doubt regarding the value and viability of fiat currency.
“Fiat money is being created in great quantities by almost every central bank in the world. Imagine, the foolishness of trying to ward off insolvency by creating ever-larger quantities of paper money. The worse off the economies of the world, the more fiat currency will be created.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, January 23, 2009.