Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 31-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 57 point fall this morning. BHP and RIO both down in ADR form, 6.2% and 5.7% respectively. Metals all down overnight – Copper down 3.4%, Zinc down 2.5% and Aluminium 1.83%. Nickel down 1.29%. Oil price down 7.5% to $48.49. Gold down $7.70 to $915.50. Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.71%. A$/US$ down to 68.13c. Biggest fall in 3 weeks US Government rejects recovery plans from GM and Chrysler. Financials struggled on concerns that banks will need another capital injection. Realization that the recent bounce was good but the economy can’t recover overnight.

Oz Minerals (OZL) announces it has received an incomplete alternative bid from Minmetals that would result in them acquiring most of its assets apart from Prominent Hill mine. They say, “OZ Minerals has received an alternative incomplete proposal from Minmetals which, when completed, will result in Minmetals acquiring all of OZ Minerals’ assets except for Prominent Hill, Martabe and the company’s portfolio of listed assets. It also said it will make an announcement on refinancing negotiations before the start of trading tomorrow and will try to make a definitive announcement the new Minmetals deal. OZL still in a trading halt.

The market is surprisingly doing OK – down only 22 compared to the 57 point fall the SFE futures predicted this morning following heavy falls on Wall Street overnight. It seems we soaked up most of the damage yesterday. Aussie banks doing well despite their US counterparts getting smashed overnight, Resources down. Except gold stocks.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 30-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 37 point fall in the market. BHP and RIO mixed Friday in ADR form – BHP down 5.15% and RIO up 1.38%. (BHP closed at the equivalent of 3333c, down 68c on Friday’s close.) Metals mostly down Friday - Copper down 0.86%, Zinc up 0.15% and Aluminium down 1.59%. Nickel down 0.26%. Oil price down 2.7% to $52.41. Gold down $16.80 to $923.20. Bonds unchanged with the 10 year yield at 2.7607%. A$/US$ down 0.04% to 68.96c.

No major news or announcements Friday. Stocks up 6.2% for the week. Widespread weakness. Financials up 12.2% for the week. Commodity stocks down on lower oil and metal prices. May oil futures down 3.6%. Material and energy stocks down 2-3%.General Motors up whilst announcing they are offering union members $10bn in preferred stock with a 9% coupon and $10bn in cash amortized over 20 years.IBM posts a gain. February personal income and spending in-line. Real personal consumption down.

The market is down 51 underperforming the 37 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. All sectors are down. Resources fairing the worst. BHP down 3.2%. RIO is the sole hero holding the market up a few index points. Banks down – only WBC up 0.7%.

Tricom Today Australian Stock Market Report 20-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 13 point rise in the market. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight – 5.23% and 3.93% respectively. (BHP closed at the equivalent of 3287c, up 162c on yesterday’s close.) Metals up overnight – Copper up 6.47%, Zinc up 6.22% and Aluminium up 6.09%. Nickel up 1.32%. Oil price up 6.9% to $51.46 on a lower US$ against other currencies as the Fed announced their potential inflation inducing $1 trillion capital injection into the financial system. Gold up $69.70 to $958.80. Bonds down slightly with the 10 year yield up to 2.6086%. A$/US$ up slightly to 68.51c. CRB Commodity index up 5%. The weaker US$ was underpinning the strong performance across commodities. The US$ was down 1.7% last night and down over 4% over the last two sessions. Material stocks up 1.4% on the higher metal prices. General Electric up on reaffirming positive profit guidance for 1Q and FY. Fed Ex posted 3Q NPAT down 75% – plans to cut more jobs and cut costs. Oracle and Nike beat quarterly expectations. The market is down 3 after being up 19 points earlier in line with the 13 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Financials down, Resources up on higher metals and commodity prices. US$ down – Aussie dollar up. Financials taking a breather today – down 2.2% – after consecutive days of gains, not helped by US Financials which went backwards overnight.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 19-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 31 point rise in the market.BHP and RIO mixed in ADR form overnight – BHP up 2.15% and RIO down 2.3%.(BHP closed at the equivalent of 3166c, up 58c on yesterday’s close.)Metals mostly down overnight – Copper down 1.16%, Zinc down 3.64% and Aluminium up 0.44%. Nickel down 2.23%. Oil price down 1.7% to $48.12 on a government report showing a bigger-thanexpected inventory increase in the US. Gold down $27.70 to $889.10, but rallied after hours $50+. Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.5419%. A$/US$ up 2.21% to 67.66c. Material and energy stocks finished higher despite the fall in oil and metals overnight. Technology stocks up on the news IBM is in takeover talks with Sun Microsystems – reports of at least $6.5bn in cash for the deal are being bandied around. Oracle announced positive results after the close. Financials up 10.1% on the announcements from the Fed regarding their plans to further stimulate the economy, increasing the flow of credit and creating demand for assets. Diversified financials services companies up 13.2%. Diversified banks up 14.9%. Our market is having a good day – up 20 – up 54 at best and in line with the 31 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Most sectors up – only healthcare and telecom stocks down. Financials, Resources and Industrials outperforming.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 16-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 26 point rise in the market. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form Friday – 2.30% and 0.8% respectively. (BHP closed at the equivalent of 3186c, up 20c on Friday’s close.)Metals mostly up Friday – Copper up 2.51%, Zinc down 0.16% and Aluminium up 0.52%. Nickel up 1.53%. Oil price down 1.5% to $46.22. Gold up $6.10 to $930.10. Bonds down with the 10 year yield up to 2.8921%. A$/US$ down 0.5% to 65.475c. Obama announced a $730m package to provide assistance to small business owners. The government also plans to increase the government guarantee on some small business administration loans to 90%. They will also boost bank liquidity with
$10bn in an attempt to unfreeze the secondary credit market. Healthcare – the largest sector in the S&P 500 – up 3.3% after recent heavy selling pressure due to fears over government reform. Energy down the most – fell 0.7% on the lower oil price. OPEC’s meeting over the weekend only created more uncertainty about demand and stabilizing prices. They did not make a cut to production but urged their members to stop overproducing. The market is up 16 in-line with the 26 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. A pretty flat start to the week with not a lot of significant news around. Resources struggling, Property Trusts and Banks doing well.

Tricom Today Australian Stock Report 13-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 58 point rise in the market. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight – 0.22% and 3.48% respectively. (BHP closed at the equivalent of 3108c, up 73c on yesterday’s close.) Metals mostly down overnight – Copper down 0.25%, Zinc down 1.13% and Nickel 3.5%. Aluminium up 0.07%. Oil price up 10.5% to $46.91 following the better-than-expected US February retail sales figures. OPEC meet this weekend to discuss production. Gold up $13.30 to $924.00. Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.8544%. A$/US$ up 0.27c to 65.47c. Biggest 3-day rally since November – up nearly 11% week-to-date. Financials lead the way. Oil has a 10% bounce. The FASB told Congress it may recommend a suspension of “mark-to-market” rules. Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of the year. Retail numbers better-than-expected. Initial jobless claims worse-than-expected. Business inventories down 1.1% in-line with expectations. General Electric’s credit rating cut less-than-expected – only to AA. General Motors said it wouldn’t need the previously requested $2bn from the government. The market is up 106 outperforming the 58 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. All sectors enjoying the bounce, particularly property (still recovering) and energy after the 10% bounce in the oil price overnight.

Tricom Today Stock Market Report 6-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 50 point fall in the market. BHP and RIO both down in ADR form overnight – 6.77% and 5.88% respectively. Metals mostly down overnight – Copper down 1.6%, Zinc up 1.47% and Aluminium down 2.87%. Nickel down 2.0%. Oil price down 3.8% to $43.54 after China released little detail about the further stimulus package to boost their economy. US government reports suggested the demand for energy could still drop further.
Gold up $21.10 to $927.80.Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.81%. A$/US$ down 1.64% to 63.86. Financials down 9.9% – Citigroup had an intraday fall of 13% to 98c on fears it will not escape nationalization. Its market cap has fallen from $270bn to $5.4bn over the last two years. Diversified banks down 16.5%. Diversified financial services down 13.2%. General Motor’s future is being questioned – the auditors of its annual report raised serious doubt about whether the company could remain liquid – GM has already had $30bn in handouts from the government. The market is down 48 in-line with the 50 point fall predicted by the Futures this morning. Quiet session ahead of Labour Day on Monday.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 5-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggest a 72 point rise in the market. BHP and RIO both up in ADR form overnight – 8.70% and 11.14% respectively. Metals up strongly overnight – Copper up 5.82%, Zinc 8.02% and Aluminium 3.42%. Nickel up 3.89%. Oil price up 8.9% to $45.28. Oil up with the rally in the general markets and on reports that crude levels in US storage has unexpectedly shrunk. Gold down $6.90 to $906.70Bonds down with the 10 year yield up to %2.9874. A$/US$ up to 65c. Financials closed 3.5% down after being up as much as 3.5% – down after Reuters reported a congressional subcommittee will meet on March 12th for a hearing on the mark-to-market accounting rules that could result in financials taking huge writedowns on their problem assets. Diversified banks down 10.2% – investors worried about news that Bancorp (Minneapolis-based bank) will cut its dividend by 88% – it was seen as one of the healthier banks. General Electric down to 18-year-lows on the fact that they might have to inject more cash into GE Capital. GE denied they required any outside assistance with capital saying they had ample liquidity. Credit agencies are warning their AAA rating is in danger of being downgraded. GE was down 17% on the open but rallied to close down only 4.5% – GE’s strength gave support to the broad-based market. The market is up 40 – a little disappointing considering the 72 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. BHP has been holding up the market all morning – boosting the index 28 points alone at midday.

Tricom Today Stock Market Report 3-3-09

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The SFE Futures suggested a 78 point fall in the market. BHP and RIO both down heavily in ADR form overnight – 7.85% and 9.9% respectively. Metals all down overnight – Copper down 3.26%, Zinc down 2.39% and Aluminium 1.79%. Nickel down 4.50%. Oil price down 4% to $40.07. Three-day rally over on the deteriorating outlook for the world economy. Gold down $2.50 to $940.00. Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 2.86%. A$/US$ down to 63.01c. The Bank of America’s CEO is saying the $20bn he borrowed from the government to buy out the failing Merrill Lynch last year was a ‘tactical mistake’.Materials and Energy stocks down 6.9% and 6.4%. The market is down 48 and in-line with the 87 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. It was down 97 at worst. Not a lot of company related news and no real theme this morning except everything’s down. One feature is Macquarie Group which has bounced from being down 4.8% to up 7.0% at its peak. No announcement and have yet to dig up a reason.
RBA Meeting Today – Decision at 2.30pm – Lots of opinions about what they will do. A Dow Jones newswire consensus of 18 economists suggest a consensus for a 25bp cut.

Commodity Snapshot

Below we provide our trading range charts of ten major commodities.  The green shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity’s 50-day moving average.  Moves above or below this green shading are considered overbought or oversold. 

As shown, oil has once again taken a turn for the worse, and it is currently testing support at its prior lows over the past couple of months.  Natural gas remains in a nasty downtrend as well.  Metals, on the other hand, continue to surge.  Gold, silver, and platinum are all trading at the very top of their trading ranges.  They’ve rallied nicely over the past few weeks, and a further move of 1% to 2% higher will put them at overbought levels.  Corn, wheat, orange juice, and coffee are all rangebound at the moment.

Source: Bespoke Research

Tricom Today 11-2-09

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The market is down 27, doing better than the 80 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning and is down just 1.1% despite a 4.6% fall on Wall St post a disappointing bank rescue plan which made it clear that there is no Obama miracle cure for the financial crisis after all. It has been terribly received in the US and criticized for a lack of detail. It seems the new administration are still making it up as they go along and have no convincing strategy to stop the financial crisis. Resources down 1.8% with metals all down. BHP down 2.8%. RIO up 1.9%. Energy stocks down on the lower oil price. Gold stocks mixed . Newcrest, Lihir and Sino Gold down, but smaller players up. One broker predicts another 3 year bull market in gold. Financials are down 0.7% – banks all down 1-2% early on with CBA up 0.7% and outperforming on the back of 1H results in-line with their profit upgrade last week. CBA will pay 113c dividend which goes ex on Monday. Property down 1.1% as Stockland Group posted a 1H NPAT loss of $726m with 1H revenue loss of $803m . SGP down 7% early on. Westfield down 1.0%.

Tricom Today 6-2-09

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The market is up 28 slightly underperforming the 56 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. All sectors up. Property leading the way up 3.2% with Stockland Group up 5.8% after recent savage falls. Banks all up between 1-2% responding to a solid rise in the US banks overnight. NAB gave a trading update with no disasters. News Corp down 5% as they slash their earnings guidance and report a shabby set of interim results. Resources up over 1% as BHP and FMG keep rising on the theme of higher shipping rates and iron ore volumes and prices. Iron ore stocks having a moment in the sun. Small resources stocks up despite the fall in metals overnight Kagara Limited up nearly 11% early on. Nickel stocks strong on the China theme.Gold doing well on the higher gold price. Newcrest and Lihir up 3.5% on the open. Oil stocks mostly up on the slightly higher oil price.

Tricom Today 2-2-09

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The market is down 20 compared to the 64 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Property down the most. Westfield down 6% in early trading having gone ex-dividend toady, now down 4%. Financials mixed. Resources down 0.5% with the fall in metals overnight and on the back of poor US economic numbers. BHP down 1.3% and RIO up 6.8% as it confirms it’s been in talks with Chinalco about the sale of its minority stakes in some of its operations reducing the need for a $6bn rights issue if the deal happens. Fortescue up 13% – on the back of its strong 1st H profit result late Friday – in-line with expectations with a strong cash position and record production. Gold stocks mostly up on the higher gold price Newcrest looking to raise $500 million in a fully underwritten equity placement.

Commodity Snapshot

Below we highlight our trading range charts of ten major commodities.  For each commodity, the green shading represents between two standard deviations above and below it’s 50-day moving average.  Moves above or below the trading range are considered overbought or oversold. 

There has been some big divergence between commodity prices in recent weeks.  As shown, oil and natural gas remain at or near oversold levels, while metals and some agriculture commodities are closer to overbought levels.  Natural gas is the most oversold commodity by far, and it has been trickling lower along the bottom of its trading range for months now.  Odds are that it will at least make a move to the top of its downtrend channel sometime soon.  Oil has been trying to break out of its downtrend recently, as it made a “higher low” on its most recent downturn. 

Gold, silver, and platinum are all trading in short-term uptrends, although they look to have stalled out at the top of their trading ranges for the time being.  Copper, corn, and wheat are trading in the middle of their trading ranges, while orange juice continues trending downward.  And coffee has really made a nice move since bottoming late last year, and it is now trading in overbought territory.

Source: Bespoke Invest