Stock Market Report 12-1-10

US technology shares fell on Monday as investors took profits after the NASDAQ touched a 16-month high on Friday. Shares of industrials buoyed the broad market following the release of strong Chinese economic data.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers eight to seven. On the NASDAQ, decliners topped advancers seven to six.

China’s strong trade data lifted US companies with large international operations. Constructions machinery maker and Dow component Caterpillar jumped 6%, its largest daily advance in nearly three months. Aluminium producer Alcoa rose 1.2% ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings announcement expected after market close. Analysts, on average, expect Alcoa to show a profit of 6cps compared to a loss in the previous quarter.

Dow components Intel and JPMorgan report results later this week. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have more than tripled in the fourth quarter of 2009, thanks to easy comparisons to the fourth quarter of 2008. A substantial improvement in financial sector results is expected to fuel gains.

McMoRan and Energy XXI shares jumped after the energy companies announced a key discovery at one of their oil exploration wells in the Gulf of Mexico.

Technology shares, however, weighed on the market. Shares in Apple, Dell and Hewlett-Packard all declined.

UPS and Fedex advanced 4.8% and 2.9%, respectively, on speculation that cold weather affecting parts of the US will drive consumers away from stores and into online shopping, increasing shipment volumes.

Among decliners, Dow component Procter & Gamble shares fell 0.4% on concern that Friday’s currency devaluation in Venezuela could hurt sales and revenue as products will be more expensive.

Overseas Markets

Dow up 48 pts to 10,666 (10,592 – 10,676)

S&P 500 up 2 pts to 1,147 (1,142 – 1,150)

Nasdaq down 5 pts to 2,312 (2,302 – 2,326)

SPI 200 Futures up 6 pts to 4,939 (4,916 – 4,958)

FTSE up 4 pts to 5,538 (5,528 – 5,600)

Nikkei up 117 pts to 10,798 (10,678 – 10,816)

Shanghai SE Comp up 17 pts to 3,213 (3,197 – 3,307)

Commodities

WTI Oil down 0.3% to US$82.52/bbl

Gold up 1.2% to US$1,152/oz

Sugar (NY) down 2.8% to USc26.75/lb

Corn up 1.6% to US$3.82/bushel

Wheat up 1.7% to US$5.38/bushel

Natural Gas (Henry Hub) down 12.0% to US$5.77/MMbtu

Silver up 0.8% to US$18.62/oz

Platinum up 1.1% to US$1,596/oz

Palladium up 1.3% to US$433.75/oz

Copper (NY) up 1.2% to US$3.43/lb

Currency

A$ / US$ up 1.4USc to US$0.93 /A$

EUR / US$ up 2.2USc to US$1.45 /EUR

GBP / US$ up 1.7USc to US$1.61 /GBP

US$ / Yen down 1.3 Yen to 92.07 Yen/US$

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 28-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 20 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.14% and RIO down 1.89%. BHP was up 1.40% and RIO down 0.28% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3703c, down 52c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on LME Copper up 0.52%, Nickel down 1.18%, Zinc up 0.82%, Aluminium down 1.33%, Lead up 0.65% Oil price up $0.26 to $66.02 Gold down $7.30 to $992 Bonds up 10 year yield at 3.329% down from 3.381% A$ up 86.62c versus 86.53c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.30% VIX Volatility Index up 2.65%

Market closes down for third straight session. New home sales and August durable goods numbers were below expectations. Durable Goods fell 2.4% in August, the biggest intermonth decline since January. The aircraft segment fell 42% in August, following a 98% surge in July. Automobile orders increased by 0.4%, after a 1.6% gain in July. New orders for non-defence capital goods, excluding aircraft- a proxy for business investment declined 0.4% following a 1.3% fall in July. Some economists trimmed their September quarter GDP growth projections.  US new home sales also disappointed, rising by a less than expected 0.7% to 0.429M annualised in August Volumes were lighter for the week ahead of the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday on 28 September - 1.19B shares traded down 47% on that for the preceding week

The market is down 55. The SFE Futures were down 50 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 22-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 15 points overnight.BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 2.06% and RIO down 2.69%. BHP was down 1.19% and RIO down 3.43% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3800c, down 8c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 0.26%, Nickel up 1.42%, Zinc up 0.37%, Aluminium down 1.80%, Lead up 1.39% Oil price down $2.33 to $69.71 Gold down $5.40 to $1005 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.487% up from 3.474%. A$ weaker 86.34c versus 86.57c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 2.18% VIX Volatility Index up 0.59%

Dell plans to buy information-technology company Perot Systems Corp (up 65%) for $3.9bn drove some buying in tech stocks. Nasdaq rose 0.2% Financials down 0.91% led by decline in Bank of America Energy sector stocks like Exxon Mobil Corp, ConocoPhillips and Halliburton Co down in the face of a lower oil price Gold down for third day in a row. Takes shine off gold stocks Homebuilder Lennar Corp fell by 3% after announcing that a doubling in its quarterly loss in the three months to August The Conference Board Index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in August, Post their fifth successive gain. Near consensus forecasts of up 0.7% US$ stronger weighs on oil and gold Some profit taking ahead of key government meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve’s two-day rate-setting meeting.

The market is down 5. The SFE Futures suggested a 15 point fall.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 14-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 4 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.71% and RIO up 1.21%. BHP was up 2.97% and RIO up 1.69% in the UK.  Metals weaker on LME Copper down 0.68%, Nickel down 1.43%, Zinc down 2.90%, Aluminium down 0.49%, Lead down 2.39%  Oil price down $2.65c to $69.29  Gold up $9.60 to $1006  Bonds steady - 10 year yield at 3.343% up from 3.342%. A$ down 86.19c versus 86.33c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.55% VIX Volatility Index up 2.55% to 24.15

Main Drivers First day down in six sessions. Selling in Energy stocks primarily led the market lower on a weaker oil price. Chevron, down 0.98%, and ExxonMobil, down 0.95%. Financials weaker led by falls in JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America down 1.21% and 1.45%. National Semiconductor Corp down around 6%. Profit result fell short of expectations although the outlook statement was more positive.  FedEx Corp up 6.41% after announcing a better than expected quarterly result.  Gold finally broke up through the $US1000 level. Now near March 2008 highs. Better than expected September Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index did not do much for the market. A further rundown in wholesale inventories saw economists edge up their thirdquarter GDP forecasts.

The market is down 50. The SFE Futures were down 4 this morning. Japanese market down 2.5% at the moment. Dow Futures down 82 points.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 09-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 11 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 4.30% and RIO up 4.81%. BHP was up 2.62% and RIO up 3.55% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3782c, up 24c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 2.39%, Nickel up 1.43%, Zinc up 3.98%, Aluminium up 1.64%, Lead up 4.36% Oil price stronger up $2.99 to $71.10 Gold price up $3.10 to $999 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.469% up from 3.442%. A$ up 86.36c versus 85.21c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 2.02% VIX Volatility Index up 1.43% to 25.62

Energy, commodities and industrial companies up on higher metals and oil prices. Alcoa up 3.5%, Chevron up 2.2%.  US$ fell to lowest level for a year against euro.  Gold price touched $1000 an ounce but closed below it. General Electric up 4.5% as JP Morgan upgraded to overweight from neutral. Health Care was the only one of the S&P 500’s 10 major sectors to fall. Cadbury rejects Kraft food bid. Cadbury jumped $14.42 or 38.5% in the US (same rally as in the UK the night before) to $51.88. Kraft fell $1.65, or 5.9%, to $26.45. Big phone deal in UK also boosted sentiment. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom said they planned to combine their British mobile phone units to form that country’s biggest mobile operator.

The market is up 23. The SFE Futures were up 11 points this morning. Lots of economic figures out today, retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 1% in July, compared to expectations of 0.5%. Housing finance also fell 2% in July against expectations for a 1.0% fall. Consumer Sentiment hit a 4 year high, rising by 5.2% in September. The index is up 34.4% over the last four months.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 8-09-09

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The SFE Futures up18 points overnight. BHP and RIO were up 2.37% and 2.03% in the UK Metals stronger overall on the LME Copper up 0.81%, Nickel up 0.60%, Zinc down 1.05%, Aluminium up 0.94%, Lead up 1.79% Oil price steady in Europe ahead of OPEC on Wednesday (likely to leave production quotas unchanged) A$ up 85.55c versus 85.21c yesterday morning. Main Drivers…with Wall street closed the focus was on Europe A weekend agreement by G20 finance ministers and central bankers to keep economic stimulus measures in place for longer added to the positive sentiment. Kraft Foods Inc. made an unsolicited bid for U.K. confectioner Cadbury PLC overnight. Cadbury UP 38%. Cadbury has rejected the bid but Kraft said it is committed to working toward a recommended transaction and to “maintaining a constructive dialogue.” Lonmin Plc rallied on press reports that Xstrata Plc was readying a bid for the company. Deutsche Telekom AG gained on market talk it would some sell off its UK operation. German manufacturing orders rose strongly in July, above economists’ forecasts.

The market is up 44. The SFE Futures were up 18 this morning. Companies hitting fresh yearly highs this morning include: ARB Corporation (ARP), Brockman Resources (BRM), Lion Nathan (LNN), SMS Management (SMX) and Toll Holdings (TOL).

The A$ hit 85.55c overnight on talk that the RBA will be the first Central Bank to increase interest rates as early as next month. Talk of the A$ hitting 90c next month and Parity next year as the US retain a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future and we raise rates to more “normal” levels (thought to mean around 6%).

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 2-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 71 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, down 1.40% and 1.80%. BHP was down 2.61% and RIO down 3.42% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3717c, down 12c on last night’s close. Metals well down on the LME Copper down 4.30%, Nickel down 4.16%, Zinc down 1.51%, Aluminium down 3.05%, Lead down 1.48% Oil price down $1.91 or 2.73% to $68.05 Gold price up $3.00 to $957 Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.375% down from 3.401%. A$ down 82.65c versus 84.36c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.85% after being up 0.7%. VIX Volatility Index up 12.07% to 29.15

Defensive sectors hold up – Healthcare, Utilities, Telecoms. Oil price turned a 2.0% gain into a 2.7% loss. ISM Manufacturing index stronger than expected and at 52.9 (against consensus of 50.5) was the first time it had been above 50 since January 2008. The New Orders element was also up 10%. Pending home sales stronger than expected. Up 3.2% against expectations of +1.5%. 6th monthly rise on the trot. July construction spending disappoints. Down 0.2% against a flat forecast. The IMF upped its global growth forecast for 2010 from +2.5% to +3.0%. Ford down 4.7% on sales numbers down 17% in August against expectations for a 33% gain. Wells Fargo down 4.7% after indicating that it would pay back government bailout funds on robust internal capital generation. FOMC Minutes tonight.

The market is down 76. The SFE Futures were down 71 this morning. 2nd Q GDP number has come in better than expected. Read below.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 24-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 69 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 1.43% and 3.50%. BHP up 1.82% in the UK, RIO up 2.65%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3763c, up 102c on last night’ close. Metals well up – Copper up 3.64%, Nickel up 2.24%, Zinc up 1.69%, Aluminium up 1.18%, Lead up 2.45% Oil price at 10 month highs up 65c or 1.03% to $73.19 Gold price posts largest gain for the month up $13.00 to $955, Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.556% up from 3.435%. A$ stronger up to 83.76c versus 83.15c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.9%. VIX Volatility Index down 0.32% to 25.01.

Markets had their 4th day gain. Volumes picked up on recent lows but considering options expiration was still well below average. All US markets at their calendar year high. S&P 500 now 55% off its low in March. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banker talkfest claimed that prospects for a return to growth in the near term appeared good but warned of further losses for financial firms and conceded that many corporate and households still struggled to access credit. His optimism was given a kicker by better than expected July Existing home sales.

Trichet’s speech at Jackson Hole contained a warning that the world economy likely faced a very bumpy road ahead and that ‘green shoots’ were not enough for him to declare the recovery sustainable, and that central bankers and governments still had an enormous amount of work to do. Meredith Whitney, the ex-Oppenhemier banking analyst who predicted that Citigroup Inc could go bust if it didn’t get help, forecast a quadrupling in US bank failures to 300+ and that it would drag on any economic recovery. Great start to the week – the market is up 115 – the SFE Futures were up 69 this morning on the back of Wall Street. Arrow Energy (AOR), Flexigroup (FXL), Troy Resources (TRY) and Wotif.com (WTF) have all hit a fresh yearly high.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 17-8-09

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The SFE Futures down 27 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, down 3.24% and 2.79%. BHP down 2.33% in the UK, RIO down 2.22%.  BHP closed at the equivalent of 3794c, down 32c on last night’s close. Metals much weaker - Copper down 2.07%, Nickel down 4.96%, Zinc down 4.51%, Aluminium down 3.45%, Lead down 4.33%, Oil price down 4.46% or $3.01 to $67.51 Gold price down $7.80 to $949, Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.558% down from 3.591%. A$ down to 82.97c versus 84.21c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 2.88%. VIX Volatility Index down 1.78% to 24.27

S&P 500 fell for the first time in five weeks - compares to the ASX 200 up 3.76% lead by the banks up 6.9%. S&P still just above 1,000 at 1,004.  Low volume day and a very narrow trading range for most of the day - see chart. Consumer sentiment numbers weaker than expected and hit their lowest index reading since March. On the back of that the oil price fell 4%. Metals down on reports that Chinese copper imports had fallen by 15% in July (although the June figure was a record). CPI numbers in line with expectations. Core CPI unchanged compared to consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Industrial production a bit better than expected. First gain in nine months. Materials sector (resources) the worst of the bunch down 2.7%. Retailers down 1.7% after JC Penney fell 6% on results.

The market is down 39 this morning. The SFE Futures were down 28 this morning. Japan’s economy grew for the first time in five quarters. Its real GDP grew 0.9% in April-June from the previous quarter, an annual increase rate of 3.7%. Enough to have the NIKKIE up 0.76% this morning against the trend. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has gone ex dividend 115c today.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 10-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 41 points overnight. BHP up 0.56% in ADR form overnight, RIO down 1.78%. BHP up 0.95% in the UK, RIO down 2.90%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3858c, up 58c on last night’s close. Metals rebound again – Copper up 2.06%, Nickel up 0.10%, Zinc up 2.69%, Aluminium up 1.38%. Oil price down 99c to $70.93. Gold price down $3.40 to $959. Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.854% up from 3.746%. A$ down to 83.49c versus 84.00c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index unchanged. VIX Volatility Index down 3.54% to 24.76

S&P 500 up for the fourth week in a row. Volumes in the US market running 24% down on last year. Strong session for the US$ up 1.2% against a basket of currencies. Better than expected employment numbers will cause a good rally here today after our market fell 27 on Friday in nervousness about the number. 247,000 jobs lost against consensus of 325,000. Unemployment at 9.4% against consensus of 9.6%. June consumer credit numbers were down for a fifth consecutive month and provided a reminder that scope for a near term rebound in household spending is limited. Quote of the night: “The downturn has ended but the recovery hasn’t begun”. Housebuilders had a very strong Friday night in the US on the back of a good set of results from Beazer Homes (up 15.4%). That added to better than expected Pending Homes sales numbers last week and fed the recovery in the housing sector which was up 7.2% and up 13% for the week. Good for BLD, JHX and CSR today.

The market is up 44. Good start to the week - the market is up 44. The SFE Future were up 41 this morning. IRESS Market Technology (IRE), Biota Holdings (BTA), Customers (CUS), Mincor Resources (MIN) and Premier Investments (PMV) have all hit a fresh yearly high.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 7-8-09

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The SFE Futures down17 points overnight.  BHP and RIO weaker in ADR form overnight, down 1.78% and 3.86%. BHP down 0.25% in the UK, RIO down 1.11%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3818c, down 61c on last night’s close. Metals much weaker following strong rises - Copper down 2.86%, Nickel down 4.18%, Zinc down 4.00%, Aluminium down 3.97%, Lead down 4.86%,  Oil price down 3c or 0.04% to $71.94. Gold price down $3.40 to $963. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.746% down from 3.764%. A$ down to 84.00c versus 84.08c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.36%. VIX Volatility Index up 3.09% to 25.67.

Sugar prices touched 28-year highs on reports that monsoonal rains in India could damage cane crops whilst a bigger than expected wet has also placed a ceiling on sugar production in the all-important Brazilian market. Wheat prices were hammered in overnight trading, with US prices recording their largest intraday falls in around nine weeks. The sell down came on forecasts that rain across the northern Great Plains region could bolster this season’s crop size. The Employment numbers tonight are more important and the CNBC story was that there could be a major negative revision with Obama recently warning that unemployment was set to get worse before it got better. Financials down 0.7% having been up 1% at one point. Banks and insurance stocks up in the UK again. Industrials up 0.6%. Cisco managed a small rise on results despite initially falling on the announcement after hours yesterday. Results OK, guidance weak.

Poor finish to the week – down 40. The SFE Futures were down 17 this morning. Resources doing most of the damage with a bit of a floppy performance from financials as well. WA News down 5.5% on a cut dividend with its results.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 30-7-09

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The SFE Futures up 3 points overnight. BHP and RIO down in ADR form overnight, down 2.92% and 3.03%. BHP down 2.44% in the UK, RIO down 1.80%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3661c, down 82c on last night’s close. Metals down – Copper down 2.03%, Nickel down 2.17%, Zinc down 2.82%, Aluminium down 1.62%. Oil price down $3.90 or 5.80% to $63.35. Gold down another $12 to $927. Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.664% down from 3.688%. A$ down to 81.72c versus 82.66c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 2.7%. VIX Volatility Index up 2.40% to 25.61.

Barack Obama in a local speech said the US economy may be seeing the beginning of the end of the recession – “We have stopped the freefall. The market’s up and the financial system is no longer on the verge of collapse. So there’s no doubt that things have gotten better.” Strong US$ (up 0.9% – biggest rise in a month) didn’t help the commodity markets with the CRB index down a big 2.7%, its worst one day fall in three months. Materials (Resources) sector fell 2.1%. Steel stocks down on a 6.31% fall in Arcelor Mittal and a 4.53% fall in Nippon Steel’s ADR on poor results. Oil price smashed, down 5.8% to $63.35 on a surprise 5.15m barrel gain in US crude supplies in the latest US Energy Department inventories report, as imports rose and refiners cut operating rates. A small decline was forecast by energy market analysts. Durable orders: Actual -2.5% (first fall in 3 months), consensus -0.6%, prior 1.3% (revised from 1.8%) Durable orders ex-Trans: Actual 1.1%, consensus 0.0%, prior 0.8% (revised from 1.1%). The big fall in transportation equipment included a 39% fall in commercial aircraft.

The market is up 34. Good result considering the SFE Futures were up just 3 this morningand the whole commodities sector performance overnight was woeful.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 29-7-09

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The SFE Futures down 21 points overnight. BHP and RIO down in ADR form overnight, down 0.32% and 3.86%. BHP down 2.47% in the UK, RIO down 4.67%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3725c, down 77c on last night’s close. Metals down – Copper down 1.38%, Nickel down 1.91%, Zinc down 1.19%, Aluminium down 0.39%. Oil price down $1.11c or 1.62% to $67.23. Gold down $14 to $939. Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.688% down from 3.713% as $42bn of 2-yr bonds were auctioned. A$ up to 82.66c versus 82.32c yesterday morning. US$ basket at its lowest this year. CRB Commodities index down 0.9%. VIX Volatility Index up 3.01% to 25.01.

Consumer confidence numbers disappointed. 2nd fall on the trot. Case Shiller house price index better than expected. Home price index booked its first intermonth gain since mid 2006. There were some not so great results in the day’s batch of June quarter earnings announcements. Both Office Depot Inc (down 18%) and Coach Inc (down 1.34%) unveiled profits that fell short of analysts’ expectations. Retail sector one of the best….up 0.6%. Healthcare also up 0.2%. Biotechs up 2.2%. Energy sector down 1.5% on a lower oil price and as gasoline prices dropped for the first time in 11 trading days. Not helped by the July Conference Board consumer confidence index numbers and the latest American Petroleum Institute inventory report, which saw a 4m+ barrel gain in US crude stockpiles last week.

The market has staged a turnaround. It is down 3. We were down 27 on open. Macquarie Group has held its AGM this morning and provides not reason to believe the financial recovery isn’t on the way. MQG up 3% and up 5% from today’s low.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 28-7-09

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The SFE Futures up 5 points overnight. BHP and RIO up in ADR form overnight, up 0.54% and 0.59%. BHP up 1.54% in the UK, RIO up 0.93%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3755c, down 30c on last night’s close. Metals up – Copper up 1.40%, Nickel up 1.14%, Zinc up 0.96%, Aluminium up 0.73%. Oil price up $1.38c or 2.06% to $68.34. Gold up 40c to $953. Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.713% up from 3.670%. A$ up to 82.32c versus 81.80c since yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.2%. VIX Volatility Index up 5.15% to 24.28.

Financials up 1.5%. Strong night for US banks Bank of America Corp, Wells Fargo & Co and JP Morgan Chase & Co. Banking index up 3.1% despite a Wall St Journal article that lending was down 3% in the 2nd Q as bank lending standards rise. Copper price hit highs last seen in October on the robust US new home sales. The London Metals Index, a gauge of six industrial metals including copper, aluminium and tin, has jumped 55% in 2009 to date. Energy sector up on the oil price rise. US gasoline prices rose for a tenth successive trading day.

Bernanke gave a presentation and answered a few questions. He said he would not be the FOMC Chairman to preside over the second Great Depression and that the jobless rate would remain high even as the US came out of recession. A weak US$ helped commodities to a small rise. Oil and gas prices up. US$ close to 2009 lows. Bit of a bland night for US results. Mostly a bit disappointing. In the Media sector in the UK, Pearson Plc, owner of the Financial Times, jumped 12% after reporting higher first half earnings. The US$ LIBOR rate went under 0.5% for the first time providing further evidence that credit markets were freeing up.

The market is continuing its good run. It is up 23 and closed higher yesterday (up 50) for the 10th consecutive session. The SFE Futures were up 5 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 27-7-09

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The SFE Futures up 26 points overnight. BHP and RIO up in ADR form overnight, up 0.21% and 1.34%. BHP down 0.51% in the UK, RIO up 0.83%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3760c, up 9c on Friday’s close. Metals mixed – Copper down 0.13%, Nickel up 2.24%, Zinc down 0.48%, Aluminium up 1.42%. Oil price up 86c or 1.3% to $66.96. Gold down $1.70 to $953. Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.670% down from 3.709%. A$ up to 81.80c versus 81.32c on Friday morning. CRB Commodities index up small. VIX Volatility Index down 1.45% to 23.09

Bonds not going anywhere in the US after a bigger than expected program of bond issuance was announced on Thursday last week. There are record levels of issuance ($115bn) with auctions of $32bn 3-mo, $31bn 6-mo and $6bn 20-yr TIPS Mon, $27bn 1-yrs and $42bn 2-yrs Tues, $39bn 5-yrs Wed and $28bn 7-yrs Thurs. Main US results this week from Dow Jones stocks include: Chevron, Walt Disney, Travelers, Verizon and Exxon Mobil. Main US economic numbers this week: Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, the first look at second quarter GDP (expected to be down 1.5%) and the Fed’s Beige Book.

A good week in the US – S&P 500 up 4.1% with the materials sector (resources) up a big 8.1%. Energy up 5.6% and utilities up 5.6%. Semiconductor sector down 1.3%. Healthcare up 1.6% as health care reform talks ‘fell apart’. Consumer sentiment numbers slightly better than expected but the commentary hinted that any further improvement in US consumers- lot would be hamstrung by rising jobless levels and minimal wage increases. Good start to the week.

The market is up 51. The SFE Futures were up 26 this morning. Virgin Blue (VBA) and Australand Property Group (ALZ) both in a trading halt this morning after announcing capital raisings.

Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 21-7-09

International Markets

• Market:

-          Further gains have the S&P500 trading at highest level since Nov.

-          S&P500 all positive: Best; Basic Materials +2.5%, Industrials +2.0%, Cons Services +1.8%. Worst; Cons goods +0.3%, Healthcare +0.5%, Financials +0.8%.

-          Reporting season update: Earnings have topped estimates by an avg 15%, with 81% ahead of estimates.

• Commodities:

-          Copper prices rose to a nine-month high on speculation metals consumption will gain as the global economy recovers. +74 this year.

-          Gold, Continues to trade as inflation hedge, trading on 5 week high on weaker dollar and higher Oil prices

-          Iron Ore: Out y’day, cash prices for ore delivered to China (63.5% grade) traded above $90/t for the first time this year.

-          Platinum, 8.5% wage increase to workers at impala Platinum fails to reach agreement with worker seeking 15%. Strikes still on the cards.

• Eco Data:

-          Leading Indicators +0.7% v cons +0.5% (prior 1.2%). 3rd consecutive monthly rise, reinforcing signs the eco may be emerging from recession.

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Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 16-7-09

International Markets

• Market:

-          Biggest gain in 3 mths following solid results from Intel & better than expected manufacturing data.

-          Dow sectors all positive. Best; Basic Materials +5.6%, Financials +5.0%, Tech +4.5%. Worst; Cons services +0.9%, Healthcare +1.4%, Cons goods +2.2%

-          Minutes from Fed Open Market Committee June meeting showed policy makers expect US eco to contract 1% – 1.5%, less than anticipated in April.

-          Treasuries fell for a third day. Yield on 10yr note +13bpts to 3.61%

• Commodities:

-          Oil, rose the most in 6 weeks following a larger than forecast drop in US inventories. Inventories fell 2.81m/bbls last week.

-          Iron Ore, News reports out last yesterday claiming major Chinese steelmakers have accepted a temporary 33% cut in Iron Ore price from RIO, reports they may also consider dropping future annual contract price negotiations. No official work from the CISA.

-          Gold, biggest gain in almost 2 mths as USD fell and Oil rallied raising fears of inflation.

-          Copper, rises most in 5 weeks following the rise in manufacturing data

• Eco Data:

-          Consumer Price Index MoM +0.7% v cons +0.6%

-          Consumer Price Index YoY -1.4% v cons -1.5%

-          Empire Manufacturing -0.55% v cons -5.0% (prior -9.41%)

-          Industrial Production -0.4% v cons -0.6% (prior -1.1%)

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Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 14-7-09

International Markets

• Market:

-          Financials lead biggest gain in 6 weeks following broker upgrades to Goldman Sachs.

-          Dow Sectors all positive: Best; Financials +5.8%, Basic Materials +2.9%, Industrials +2.7%. Worst; Cons services +0.9%, Oil & Gas +1.3%, Telco’s +1.5%

-          VIX index down 12% to 25.61.

• Commodities:

-          Gold, Platinum & Silver advance on weakening USD. USD index -0.2%

-          Copper better as it continues to correlate with the broader Equity mtk as a signal for improved economic conditions.

-          Iron Ore, cash prices for ore delivered to China jump to 9mth high. Ore for immediate delivery +5.5% to $87/t, highest px since Oct ’08.

• Eco Data:

-          Monthly Budget Statement: -94.3bn v cons -97.0bn (prior 33.5bn)

• CALTEX AUSTRALIA LTD (CTX: $11.53):

- Buy $10/11, key support $10.

- While on the subject of buying back into stocks at prices lower than we recently sold them, CTX is fitting the mould and coming back towards an area we consider buyable. We were a buyer of this back in May as it pushed up through the high 900s suggesting a break and run play and then sold into strength as it crossed $12 and headed towards $13 in the expectation the stock would most likely take a breather and give an opportunity to get back in at a better price. With news from the northern hemisphere of reduced refiner margins coinciding with a local turf war with the supermarket majors promoting new, aggressive discounting to welcome CTX’s purchase of the Mobil retail network, the CTX share price closed yesterday in the 1150s. Whilst we don’t necessarily feel the need to fully open the wallet on this one just yet, certainly a move back to around $11 would be of interest and action in the $10s would, most likely have us re-setting those original positions.

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Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 9-7-09

International Markets

• ·                      Market.

-                      Equities: Closed slight up but most stocks finish in the red. Concern Q2 earnings will disappoint through reporting season.

-                      Bonds: Govt auction of $19bn in 10yr Treasury notes drew a yield of 3.365%, lower than forecast on excess demand. 10yr yields fell to 3.3%

-                      Technical’s: S&P500 breaches neck-line in head and shoulders formation, suggesting downside risk in the magnitude of 63pts.

-                      Dow Sectors: Best; Healthcare +1.3%, Basic Materials +0.6%, Industrials +0.5%. Worst; Telco’s -3.3%, Financials -0.3%, Oil & Gas -0.2%

-                      USD index +0.3% after IMF raised 2010 forecast for global economic growth.

-                      IMF now forecasts expansion of 2.5% whilst saying this years contraction will deepen to 1.4%.

• Commodities:

-                      Oil, falls for 6^th day with Gasoline stockpiles climbing to 1.9m/bbl, more than twice the increase forecast.

-                      Gold, falls to 2 mths low on stronger USD, whilst Copper falls for 4^th straight session on signs eco recovery will be slow to take off.

-                      Al, Alcoa kicks of reporting season after mtk. Q2 loss smaller than expected

-                      Sugar, rose for first time in 6 sessions, on concern below avg monsoon rains in India will puts crops at risk.

• Eco Data:

-                      MBA Mortgage Apps 10.9% v prior -18.9%

-                      Consumer Credit -3.2bn v cons -8.8bn (prior -15.7bn)

Summary of Technical Analysis

BUY Price Target

AOE $3.09 Downside support $3.50

SELL Price Target

HGO $0.225 Upside resistance $0.20

HIG $0.135 Upside resistance $0.11

INP $0.23 Upside resistance $0.20

CVN $0.655 Upside resistance $0.60

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Morning Stock Report – Stocks to Watch 8-7-09

International Markets

• Market:

-          Major indices face broad based sell off to close on Lows. S&P500 breaks 200-day moving avg.

-          Dow sectors all in the red: Best; Healthcare -0.6%, Cons goods -1.0%, Cons services -1.4%. Worst; Industrials -3.5%, Basic Materials -3.3%, Oil & Gas -2.2%

-          Politics: President Obama indicates a second fiscal stimulus isn’t off the table. However, Senate Majority leader Reid, says there is no case at this stage for another.

• Commodities:

-          Oil, traded $62.93/bbl the lowest settlement since late May. Govt report due tomorrow exp’d to show higher gasoline inventories. US regulators say they may clamp down on speculators by limiting the holding of futures traders.

-          Copper continues its pullback. Broker reports copper imports by China may plunge 64% pushing in 2H due to excess inventories.

-          Al, Alcoa +1.6%, biggest gainer in the Dow, say they are ‘very optimistic’ on sales as Chinese Eco & US industries (inc Auto) start to recover. Alcoa officially kicks off reporting season tonight.

-          Iron Ore, Vale say may reopen mine in Brazil in coming mths as world show signs of recovery. Will restart 1 or 4 iron-ore pellet plants.

• Eco Data:

ABC Consumer confidence

Technical Analysis:
· Stocks At Major Resistance/Correction Likely
- Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG: $36.45)
· Downside Target = $30.00
- Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR: $21.70)
· Downside Target = $20.00, $18.20

- Onesteel Ltd (OST: $2.41)
· Downside Target = $2.10, $2.05

- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC: $19.10)
· Downside Target = $17.40

- Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO: $47.35)
· Downside Target = $41.18

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