The ABC’s of Stock Trading

A wise man chooses to do in the beginning what the fool is forced to do in the end.

Better to be wrong and rich than right and broke.

Create an atmosphere of confidence and you will never choke on the bone of contention.

Develop an edge and stick to it. If you are not living on the edge then you are falling off of one.

Enter the market prepared or you will exit impaired.

Forget the last trade or the market will steal your next one.

Giving in to emotional bias is akin to giving up.

He who chases three rabbits catches none.

If it sounds to easy to be true then it is neither easy or true.

Just say no when the market has said yes one too many times.

Keep what you have by not keeping what you never intended to have.

Losers justify and winners rectify.

Make time for self.

Noise is the mother of doubt.

Obvious trades can lead to blind faith.

Poor execution can result in a broken disposition.

Quitting is not a fork in the road but a dead end street.

Reason looks for support in the past while judgment considers the weight of the future.

Stocks move first and ask questions later.

Timing the market is like winding a clock that has no hands.

Understand yourself first and the market last.

Voice your opinion in mute mode.

Wishers become has beens when what has been becomes a wish.

Xtra time in the market could spell disaster in the home.

Your ability to win is based on your willingness to lose.

Zoos welcome bulls and bears but pigs…

Source: David Blair

Stock Market Wrap 7-10-09

Buoyed by an encouraging lead from overseas, the Australian market started strongly but soon began to shed its gains, and lost more steam after the RBA’s rate hike. The All Ordinaries finished Tuesday 18 points higher.

The S&P/ASX 200 also closed 18 points up. The Materials sector rose, with BHP Billiton (+$0.33), Rio Tinto (+$0.88) and Newcrest (+$0.76) climbing while Fortescue (-$0.19) fell. The Energy sector gained, with winners including Origin (+$0.28), Santos (+$0.13), Oil Search (+$0.10) and WorleyParsons (+$0.75); Woodside (-$0.43) bucked the trend and declined. The Financials sector saw gains in Westpac (+$0.51), ANZ (+$0.20), Westfield (+$0.24) and Macquarie Group (+$1.05); however, Commonwealth Bank (-$0.18) and National Australia Bank (-$0.11) dipped. The Industrials sector saw Brambles (-$0.20) fall while Leighton Holdings (+$0.83) and Macquarie Airports (+$0.08) rose. Losers in the Consumer Discretionary sector included Harvey Norman (-$0.11), Aristocrat (-$0.25), Fairfax (-$0.06) and David Jones (-$0.30). In the Healthcare sector, CSL (-$0.45) and ResMed (-$0.14) softened.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.25%. Graincorp (in trading halt) is to acquire global malt manufacturer United Malt Holdings for an enterprise value of $757M. The acquisition is to be funded by a 9-10 entitlement offer at $5.65ps and institutional placement raising a total of $589M, and a US$200M debt facility. Graincorp also upgraded its FY09 NPAT guidance to a range of $60M-$63M and said it will pay a dividend equivalent to 15cps per existing share. Brambles’ CEO will retire from his role on 1 November 2009. Brambles’ strategic review of its North American CHEP operations endorsed the continued use of wooden pallets and an improvement in customer service.

US Stock Markets

US stocks extended a worldwide rally, on speculation third-quarter earnings will top estimates and growing conviction the global economy is improving.

Market breadth was positive. On the NYSE, winners topped losers by almost four to one. On the NASDAQ, advancers topped decliners two to one.

The stock advance was broad-based, with 29 of 30 Dow stocks rising as investors piled into a variety of stocks battered in the recent sell-off. Investors welcomed reports that Australia became the first major economy to lift interest rates since the start of the financial crisis.

Producers of energy and raw materials had the two biggest advances in the S&P 500 among 10 industries, rising around 2%. Alcoa and Newmont Mining climbed at least 3.5%, while Exxon Mobil gained 1.6% as crude advanced.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries added 1.9%, the most in two months.

In company news, Boeing said it will take a US$1B charge in the third quarter because of higher costs to produce its 747-8 airplanes and tough market conditions. The stock was little changed and was the only Dow stock to not advance.

Alcoa is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Wednesday, the first company in the Dow average to report earnings. General Electric and Intel are among the Dow and S&P 500 companies that will report in the next two weeks. Analysts expect companies will report a ninth straight quarter of declining profits before returning to growth in the final quarter.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 29-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 56 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 2.37% and RIO up 2.09%. BHP was up 2.30% and RIO up 2.15% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3764c, up 54c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on LME Copper up 0.35%, Nickel down 0.90%, Zinc down 0.11%, Aluminium up 0.95%, Lead up 1.02% Oil price up $0.79 to $66.84 Gold up $2.50 to $994 Bonds up 10 year yield at 3.302% down from 3.329% A$ up 87.27c versus 86.62c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.57% VIX Volatility Index down 2.85%

Market bounces back from three days of falls. Trading volumes were light with the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday - just 0.979 shares were exchanged on the day, down 21% on the three-month average. M&A activity in Healthcare and Technology sectors boosts market. All 10 sectors of the S&P500 were up. Index now up 57% from March lows. Financials posted best gains up 3.4%. Sectors best gains in two months. Morgan Stanley forecast declining credit losses for banks over next 12-18 months; Citigroup was up 4.3%; Insurers also up. Hartford Financial up 11%. On the takeovers front, Affiliated Computer Services was up 14% after Xerox acquired the company for US$6.4B. American Securities announced it will acquire GenTek for $38.00 per share, which represents nearly a 40% premium over the last closing price. Bloomberg data, M&A activity involving US companies in the month of September to date has totaled US$49.1B, well up on the figures for the preceding two months (August: US$26.6B; July: US$36.8B). 

The market is up 83. The SFE Futures were up 56 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 28-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 20 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.14% and RIO down 1.89%. BHP was up 1.40% and RIO down 0.28% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3703c, down 52c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on LME Copper up 0.52%, Nickel down 1.18%, Zinc up 0.82%, Aluminium down 1.33%, Lead up 0.65% Oil price up $0.26 to $66.02 Gold down $7.30 to $992 Bonds up 10 year yield at 3.329% down from 3.381% A$ up 86.62c versus 86.53c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.30% VIX Volatility Index up 2.65%

Market closes down for third straight session. New home sales and August durable goods numbers were below expectations. Durable Goods fell 2.4% in August, the biggest intermonth decline since January. The aircraft segment fell 42% in August, following a 98% surge in July. Automobile orders increased by 0.4%, after a 1.6% gain in July. New orders for non-defence capital goods, excluding aircraft- a proxy for business investment declined 0.4% following a 1.3% fall in July. Some economists trimmed their September quarter GDP growth projections.  US new home sales also disappointed, rising by a less than expected 0.7% to 0.429M annualised in August Volumes were lighter for the week ahead of the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday on 28 September - 1.19B shares traded down 47% on that for the preceding week

The market is down 55. The SFE Futures were down 50 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 24-09-09

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The SFE Futures down 28 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 2.00% and RIO down 1.52%. BHP was down 1.02% and RIO up 0.97% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3779c, down 56c on last night’s close. Metals mainly weaker on LME Copper down 2.26%, Nickel up 0.73%, Zinc down 2.24%, Aluminium down 0.81%, Lead down 2.21% Oil price down $2.85 to $68.70 Gold down $1.10 to $1014 Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.418% down from 3.456%. A$ down 86.84c versus 87.36c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 1.01% VIX Volatility Index up 1.78%

• Market finished close to its intra-day low. Interest Rates remain unchanged. Following a two day policy meeting, the FOMC left rates unchanged at 0.00-0.25% and added they would keep short-term interest rates at historically low levels near zero “for an extended period”. FOMC policy statement indicated that economic activity has ‘picked up’ since their last meeting in August but added unemployment is likely to influence consumer spending, to add to lower household wealth and tight credit solutions. FOMC went on to say that it will purchase $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities and $200 billion agency debt, but it will gradually slow the pace of purchases to promote a smooth transition in markets. Financials - down 2.1% – led the market lower. JP Morgan down 3.0% and Citigroup down 2.8% Moody’s down 8% on reports that US state regulators were reviewing whether to create an organization for grading insurers’ bond holdings, potentially negatively impacting Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s revenue streams.Materials down 2.0%

The market is down 11. The SFE Futures suggested a 28 point fall.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 23-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 19 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 2.12% and RIO up 2.82%. BHP was up 1% and RIO up 2.4% in the UK. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 1.36%, Nickel up 2.06%, Zinc up 1.43%, Aluminium up 0.27%, Lead up 3.48%. Oil price up $1.84 to $71.55. Gold up $10.60 to $1015. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.456% down from 3.487%. A$ up 87.36c versus 86.34c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 1.90%VIX Volatility Index down 4.07% 

Financial best sector up 2.3%. Highest level since November. JPMorgan Chase up 4.3% and was the best performer in the Dow index. Macy’s up 5.5%, Hewlett-Packard up 1.4% and Bank of America up 2.1% boosted by some analyst upgrades Energy sector up 1.4%, Materials sector up 1.2% on higher oil and commodity prices Newmont Mining up 1.8% and Exxon Mobil up 0.4% Caterpillar up 3.6% on speculation demand for commodities will boost sales. Utilities, Health Care and Telecoms down. Oil up for first time in 4 days. Chinese oil imports increased by 18% in August.

 US$ fell to its lowest level against the euro in more than a year. US$43bn Note Auction. Results for 2-year Treasuries strongest support in twoyears (the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.23). News that the Asian Development Bank has upgraded its GDP forecasts for majorAsian economies boosted sentiment on the global economic outlook. Predicted Asia,excluding Japan, will grow 3.9% in 2009. FOMC make their interest rate decision tonight.

The market is down 5. The SFE Futures suggested a 15 point fall.

ASX Stock and CFD Report 21-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 7 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 1.60% and RIO down 0.58%. BHP was down 0.91% and RIO down 0.07% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3864c, down 6c on last night’s close. Metals weaker on LME Copper down 3.32%, Nickel down 4.05%, Zinc down 2.53%, Aluminium down 2.53%, Lead down 2.43% Oil price down 43c to $72.04 Gold down $3.20 to $1010 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.474% up from 3.398%. A$ weaker86.57c versus 87.22c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.74% VIX Volatility Index up 1.14%

Market up nine of the past eleven days. Up 2.2% for the week. For the week All ten sectors of the S&P 500 were up, led by Materials +4.7% and Financials +4.5%. S&P 500 now up 58% from its lows in March Telecom, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services, Utilities and Technology sectors led the market up on Friday. The Other five sectors were down. Other Consumer products stocks up included gains for Sara Lee up 5.7% and Home Depot.1.1%  Texas Instruments rallied after unveiling plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 1 US cent to 12 US cents A new economic forecast by Barclay’s Capital for GDP raised its projection for growth for the first three months of next year to 5% from 3% boosted sentiment Reports are circulating that international investors, headed by the Chinese, are boosting their holdings of US Treasuries, on a view that US inflation will remain subdued.

The market is down 18. The SFE Futures suggested a 7 point rise.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 18-9-09

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The SFE Futures down 21 points overnight.BHP and RIO down 1.22% and 1.39% in ADR form overnight. BHP was up 0.23% and RIO up 0.61% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3907c, up 3c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on LME Copper down 0.53%, Nickel down 0.71%, Zinc up 1.20%, Aluminium up 2.11%, Lead up 1.60% Oil price up 13c to $72.47. Gold down $6.70 to $1013.5. Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.398% down from 3.471%.  A$ touch weaker 87.07c versus 87.29c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.37% overnight. VIX Volatility Index down 0.17% to 23.65.

Dow breaks a three day rally. Nasdaq down for just the 2nd time in 10 days.  9 out of 10 sectors down. Weekly jobless claims fell by 12,000 against expectations for a flat number. Second fall on the trot.  Housing starts up 1.5% – less than expected but up thanks to the 25% rise in the multi-family dwellings segment – still the highest level in nine months. The singlefamily dwelling sector fell by 3.0%.  Better than expected September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index number. Highest level since June 2007.  Telecoms down. Oracle down 2.8% on results and a fall in Q1 sales. Verizon down 3%.  Citigroup up 5.2%. Caterpillar up 2.4%. Fedex down 2% on weak sales numbers.  American Airlines up 20% after raising $2.9bn.  Energy sector down on lower gas prices.

The market is down 35. The SFE Futures were down 21 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 15-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 46 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 0.72% and RIO down 0.41%. BHP was down 0.96% and RIO down 1.10% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3833c, up 49c on last night’s close. Metals generally weaker on LME Copper down 1.80%, Nickel down 2.04%, Zinc down 1.90%, Aluminium down 0.72%, Lead up 1.76% Oil price down 43c to $68.86 Gold down $5.30 to $1001 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.406% up from 3.343%. A$ down a touch 86.16c versus 86.19c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.62% VIX Volatility Index down 1.20% to 23.86

 Market recovers from early losses. Sixth gain in seven sessions Worries that a trade war could erupt between the U.S. and China caused early nervousness Nine out of ten sectors up. Telecoms only sector down. Utilities up after lagging in recent sessions. The sector advanced 1.6% after electric utilities (+1.7%) were given positive coverage in a Barron’s article. Utility AES Corp attracted interest (up 4.5%) after The Wall Street Journal reported that China’s investment arm is interested in buying a stake in the company.  Financial stocks up 1.6% after being down as much as 1% early .  Materials up 1.6% higher. General Electric up 4.6% to $15.35. First close above $15 since January. Goldman Sachs reiterated its “buy” rating on the stock.

The market is up 15. The SFE Futures up 46 points overnight.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 11-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 42 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 1.78% and RIO up 2.79%. BHP was up 0.09% and RIO up 0.20% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3829c, up 29c on last night’s close. Metals much weaker on LME Copper down 1.89%, Nickel down 4.21%, Zinc down 3.07%, Aluminium down 1.94%, Lead down 12.36% Oil price up 63c to $71.94 Gold touch weaker down $0.30 to $997 Bonds well up – 10 year yield at 3.342% down from 3.479%. A$ up 86.33c versus 86.29c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.77% VIX Volatility Index down 3.17% to 23.55

Broad based rally with all 10 major sectors up Energy stocks were strong including Chevron Corp and Schlumberger on higher oil prices. News that the International Energy Agency had increased its 2010 estimate for global demand for a second consecutive month (up 0.45M barrels to 85.7M barrels a day); (2) further US$ selling and (3) a larger than expected drop in crude stockpiles in the latest US Energy Department weekly inventories report boosted sentiment Telecom and Airline stocks were also strong Walt Disney up 5% in Media and Entertainment Procter & Gamble up 4.2% after saying it will cut prices and increase promotions across nearly 10% of its portfolio. Initial jobless claims numbers were better than expected. Trade deficit increased 16% to $32.0 billion in July. This was well above expectations. US$ fell – further weakness took it to 2009 lows against the Euro and YEN

The market is finishing the week off strongly and is up 25. The SFE Futures were up 42 this morning

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 10-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 31 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP down 0.41% and RIO down 0.01%. BHP was down 0.12% and RIO down 0.47% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3763c, down 6c on last night’s close. Metals take a breather on LME Copper down 1.02%, Nickel down 0.11%, Zinc down 0.10%, Aluminium down 0.27%, Lead down 2.13% Oil price up a bit 21c to $71.31 Gold price down $2.70 to $997 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.479% up from 3.469%. A$ up 86.29c versus 86.20c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.26% VIX Volatility Index down 5.07% to 24.32. Volumes were light.

Most sectors finished up. Utilities and consumer staples were slightly weaker. Financials were strong. Financials up 1.4%. Materials sector (resources) and energy sectors up. The Nasdaq Composite (technology driven) did better than the S&P500 and the Dow closing up 1.11%. Highest close since Oct last year. The S&P 500 is now 53% above its March lows Caterpillar up 3.1%. General Electric up 2.6% to January highs, Boeing 2.1%. Google up 1.2%. Ebay up 3.9% after Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded the company, citing the turnaround in its core businesses and in used-auto sales. Oil bit better helped by weaker US$. Most expect OPEC to retain its current production targets at Thursday’s Vienna meeting - a consensus view reinforced by comments by the Kuwaiti oil minister.  Gold failed to drive through the US$1000 mark. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey showed half of Federal Reserve districts saw evidence the U.S. economy had improved by the end of August, but labor markets remained weak and retail sales were flat overall.

The market is up 37, an 11 month high. The SFE Futures were up 31 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 09-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 11 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 4.30% and RIO up 4.81%. BHP was up 2.62% and RIO up 3.55% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3782c, up 24c on last night’s close. Metals stronger on LME Copper up 2.39%, Nickel up 1.43%, Zinc up 3.98%, Aluminium up 1.64%, Lead up 4.36% Oil price stronger up $2.99 to $71.10 Gold price up $3.10 to $999 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.469% up from 3.442%. A$ up 86.36c versus 85.21c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 2.02% VIX Volatility Index up 1.43% to 25.62

Energy, commodities and industrial companies up on higher metals and oil prices. Alcoa up 3.5%, Chevron up 2.2%.  US$ fell to lowest level for a year against euro.  Gold price touched $1000 an ounce but closed below it. General Electric up 4.5% as JP Morgan upgraded to overweight from neutral. Health Care was the only one of the S&P 500’s 10 major sectors to fall. Cadbury rejects Kraft food bid. Cadbury jumped $14.42 or 38.5% in the US (same rally as in the UK the night before) to $51.88. Kraft fell $1.65, or 5.9%, to $26.45. Big phone deal in UK also boosted sentiment. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom said they planned to combine their British mobile phone units to form that country’s biggest mobile operator.

The market is up 23. The SFE Futures were up 11 points this morning. Lots of economic figures out today, retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 1% in July, compared to expectations of 0.5%. Housing finance also fell 2% in July against expectations for a 1.0% fall. Consumer Sentiment hit a 4 year high, rising by 5.2% in September. The index is up 34.4% over the last four months.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 8-09-09

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The SFE Futures up18 points overnight. BHP and RIO were up 2.37% and 2.03% in the UK Metals stronger overall on the LME Copper up 0.81%, Nickel up 0.60%, Zinc down 1.05%, Aluminium up 0.94%, Lead up 1.79% Oil price steady in Europe ahead of OPEC on Wednesday (likely to leave production quotas unchanged) A$ up 85.55c versus 85.21c yesterday morning. Main Drivers…with Wall street closed the focus was on Europe A weekend agreement by G20 finance ministers and central bankers to keep economic stimulus measures in place for longer added to the positive sentiment. Kraft Foods Inc. made an unsolicited bid for U.K. confectioner Cadbury PLC overnight. Cadbury UP 38%. Cadbury has rejected the bid but Kraft said it is committed to working toward a recommended transaction and to “maintaining a constructive dialogue.” Lonmin Plc rallied on press reports that Xstrata Plc was readying a bid for the company. Deutsche Telekom AG gained on market talk it would some sell off its UK operation. German manufacturing orders rose strongly in July, above economists’ forecasts.

The market is up 44. The SFE Futures were up 18 this morning. Companies hitting fresh yearly highs this morning include: ARB Corporation (ARP), Brockman Resources (BRM), Lion Nathan (LNN), SMS Management (SMX) and Toll Holdings (TOL).

The A$ hit 85.55c overnight on talk that the RBA will be the first Central Bank to increase interest rates as early as next month. Talk of the A$ hitting 90c next month and Parity next year as the US retain a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future and we raise rates to more “normal” levels (thought to mean around 6%).

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 7-09-09

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The SFE Futures up 38 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, BHP up 0.84% and RIO up 2.25%. BHP was up 1.28% and RIO up 3.01% in the UK. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3669c, up 7c on last night’s close. Metals mixed on the LME following two strong days Copper up 0.32%, Nickel down 3.40%, Zinc up 1.82%, Aluminium down 0.16%, Lead up 1.28% Oil price up 3.3% Gold price touch weaker down $1.00 to $997 Bonds well up - 10 year yield at 3.442% up from 3.328%. A$ up 85.21c versus 83.97c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.47% VIX Volatility Index down 6.79% to 25.26

Light volumes leading into the long weekend - There is a Labor Day holiday in the US tonight. S&P 500 fell for the first week in two months. US Non-farm payrolls for August were not as bad as expected. Lowest job loss number in a year. Unemployment rate jumped to 9.7% compared expectations of 9.5%. Highest unemployment rate since 1983. Gold paused after the recent strong run. Financials up 0.3%. US dollar fell 0.3%.

Payrolls: Actual -216K, consensus -230K, prior -276K (revised from -247K) Unemployment rate: Actual 9.7%, consensus 9.5%, prior 9.4%  Hourly earnings: Actual 0.3%, consensus 0.1%, prior 0.3% (revised from 0.2%)  Average workweek: Actual 33.1, consensus 33.1, prior 33.1

The market is up 8. The SFE Futures were up 38 this morning. We were up 32 at one stage.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 31-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 2 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 0.63% and 0.51%. BHP up 1.90% in theUK, RIO up 1.81%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3803c, up 18c on last night’s close. Metals much stronger - Copper up 3.31%, Nickel up 1.54%, Zinc up 2.94%, Aluminium up 0.86%, Lead up 5.02% Oil price up 39c to $72.88 Gold price up $11.50 to $959 Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.451% down from 3.462%. A$ up 84.23c versus 83.86c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.50% VIX Volatility Index up 0.32% to 24.76

Another low volume session. Markets hit a new year high before backing off. Financials up 0.2%. Materials (resources) up 0.6%. Intel up 4.01% on increased earnings guidance. Dell and Marvel Tech up on results helping the NASDAQ to close in positive territory. Personal income and spending data in line with expectations and largely ignored. Sugar prices up 4% on Friday on news that cane output in the all-important Brazilian market was on the decline as rains across August damaged this year’s crop. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly above market expectations.

The market is up 34. The SFE Futures were up 2 this morning. Inflation Gauge in August came in unchanged after a 0.9% rise in July. The gauge is up 1.7% in year to August. Other economic releases today: Home Sales Figures for July; Corporate Profits seen falling 4.5% in Second Quarter; Inventories seen falling 1.1% last Q; Private Sector Credit seen rising 0.2% From June. Twenty-five stocks have hit a fresh yearly high this morning: Notables include NAB, ANZ, Harvey Norman, Macquarie Group and GUD

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 28-08-09

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The SFE Futures up 4 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 1.61% and 0.20%. BHP down 0.22% in the UK, RIO down 0.40%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3798c, up 33c on last night’s close. Metals generally weaker – Copper down 0.30%, Nickel down 1.70%, Zinc down 0.77%, Aluminium up 1.09%, Lead down 1.92% Oil price resumes gains up $1.06 or 1.48% to $72.49 Gold price up $1.50 to $947 Bonds down - 10 year yield at 3.462% up from 3.438%. A$ up 83.86c versus 82.70c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.13% VIX Volatility Index down 1.08% to 24.68 Low volume night - 20% below average.

Market fell early then recovered on the back of a rise in financials and a rise in commodities and the materials sector on the back of a sudden fall in the US$. US% basket down 0.7%. Financials up 1.0% having been down 1.0% early on. Materials up 0.6%. Energy sector turned around from a 2.0% fall to a 0.4% fall. Oil; price up 1.5%. AIG up 26% on short covering.  Boeing up 8.36% on news that the 787 Dreamliner will be delivered in late 2010. They are also taking a $2.5bn charge in the 3rd Q. Citigroup Inc up 9.07% on press reports hedge-fund manager John Paulson was building a stake in the bank. Jobless claims in line with expectations but jobs market still weak.

The market is up 29. The SFE Futures were up 4 this morning. Bigger stocks Ex Dividend today - COH (95c), SUN (20c), WOR (55c), HST (5c). Bigger stocks Ex Dividend on Monday (last day to buy for the dividend) - BHP (50.07c), MND (44c). ANZ has a trading update on Monday.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 27-08-09

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The SFE Futures down 10 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, down 0.32% and 2.80%. BHP down 1.41% in the UK, RIO down 3.99%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3788c, down 27c on last night’s close. Metals down - Copper down 0.35%, Nickel down 1.39%, Zinc down 0.22%, Aluminium down 1.82%, Lead down 0.54%  Oil price touch lower down 12c or 0.17% to $71.43 Gold price down 20c to $946 Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.438% down from 3.450%. A$ down 82.70c versus 83.44c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index down 0.46% VIX Volatility Index up 0.12% to 24.95 Low volume session.

The Dow went through zero nine times and the S&P 500 20 times. A tiny increase but Dow now up 7 days on the trot. Stronger than expected Durable Goods orders. Headline number higher than expected, ex transport number in line with expectations. Biggest rise in two years up 4.9% versus expectations of 3.0%. Some upgrades to 3rd Q GDP numbers around after the Durable Goods orders. Better than expected New home sales numbers helped homebuilders and DIY retailers higher. 433,000 units against expectations for 390,000. The 9.6% monthon-month jump was the sharpest rise since 2005. The $39bn 5 year note auction went well. 2.494% yield was a bit high but with a 2.51 bid-to-cover ratio and an indirect bidder rate of 56.4%. $28bn of 7 year notes to be auctioned tonight. Not much of a move in commodities. Forex market players reacted to reports of possible curbs to Chinese industrial capacity.

The market is down 12. The SFE Futures were down 10 this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 25-8-09

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The SFE Futures down 22 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 1.35% and 2.05%. BHP up 3.61% in the UK, RIO up 4.86%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3816c, down 2c on last night’s close. Metals mostly up - Copper up 2.39%, Nickel up 1.62%, Zinc up 1.16%, Aluminium down 0.05%, Lead up 9.08% Oil price up again up 63c or 0.86% to $73.82 Gold price retreats on stronger US$ down $11.00 to $944 Bonds up - 10 year yield at 3.494% down from 3.556%. A$ steady 83.75c versus 83.76c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.76% VIX Volatility Index up 0.52% to 25.14

The S&P 500 hit a new year high before settling back to close down. Financials led the market early with a 2% gain which turned into a 0.9% loss. Banks down 2.3%. The CEO of big Georgia-based lender SunTrust Banks Inc warned that US financial institutions would likely report further credit losses in coming quarters. He expects that this uplift would be driven by commercial real estate-related loan delinquencies. US regulators have already closed 18 banks in the state of Georgia over 2009 to date. Materials (resources) down 0.9%. Advanced Micro Devices Inc and Dell Inc rallied on the back of some positive broker research. Bernanke speech on Monday being interpreted as meaning interest rates can remain low for a long time to come. An article in the Financial Times by Nouriel Roubini got some coverage with its prediction of a double dip recession in the US

The market is down 17. The SFE Futures were down 22 this morning. DWS Advanced (DWS), REA Group (REA), Mermaid Marine (MRM) and Troy Resources (TRY) have all hit a 52 week high this morning.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 24-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 69 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 1.43% and 3.50%. BHP up 1.82% in the UK, RIO up 2.65%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3763c, up 102c on last night’ close. Metals well up – Copper up 3.64%, Nickel up 2.24%, Zinc up 1.69%, Aluminium up 1.18%, Lead up 2.45% Oil price at 10 month highs up 65c or 1.03% to $73.19 Gold price posts largest gain for the month up $13.00 to $955, Bonds down – 10 year yield at 3.556% up from 3.435%. A$ stronger up to 83.76c versus 83.15c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.9%. VIX Volatility Index down 0.32% to 25.01.

Markets had their 4th day gain. Volumes picked up on recent lows but considering options expiration was still well below average. All US markets at their calendar year high. S&P 500 now 55% off its low in March. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banker talkfest claimed that prospects for a return to growth in the near term appeared good but warned of further losses for financial firms and conceded that many corporate and households still struggled to access credit. His optimism was given a kicker by better than expected July Existing home sales.

Trichet’s speech at Jackson Hole contained a warning that the world economy likely faced a very bumpy road ahead and that ‘green shoots’ were not enough for him to declare the recovery sustainable, and that central bankers and governments still had an enormous amount of work to do. Meredith Whitney, the ex-Oppenhemier banking analyst who predicted that Citigroup Inc could go bust if it didn’t get help, forecast a quadrupling in US bank failures to 300+ and that it would drag on any economic recovery. Great start to the week – the market is up 115 – the SFE Futures were up 69 this morning on the back of Wall Street. Arrow Energy (AOR), Flexigroup (FXL), Troy Resources (TRY) and Wotif.com (WTF) have all hit a fresh yearly high.

ASX200 Stock and CFD Report 21-8-09

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The SFE Futures up 13 points overnight. BHP and RIO in ADR form overnight, up 0.88% and down 0.72%. BHP up 1.86% in the UK, RIO up 1.00%. BHP closed at the equivalent of 3739c, up 26c on last night’s close. Metals mixed – Copper up 1.12%, Nickel up 0.31%, Zinc down 0.28%, Aluminium down 2.25%, Lead up 0.34% Oil price up a touch up 15c or 0.21% to $72.57. Natural gas prices down. Gold price down $3.30 to $942 Bonds up – 10 year yield at 3.4353% down from 3.463%. A$ up to 83.15c versus 82.99c yesterday morning. CRB Commodities index up 0.02% VIX Volatility Index down 4.46% to 25.09

Low volumes again. Market up 3% in three days. A recovery in Asian stockmarkets (particularly Chinese up 4.33%) provided some relief. Financials up a solid 2.6% with banks up 3.0% and insurance up 4.3%. Industrials up 1.2%. Sears belted (down 11.88%) on results although retailers still managed a 0.4% rise. Jobless claims numbers worse than expected. Looks like unemployment is going to remain reasonably high even whilst the economy initially stabilises/recovers. Philadelphia Fed index stronger than expected. Expecting business activity to increase in the next six months. The Leading index was up for the fourth straight month but in line with expectations. The Baltic Dry index fell over 3% last night. Not a great leader for resources and not exactly underpinning recent commodity price rises. Notably the iron ore price has also peaked. Bonds got a lift on a slightly smaller than expected bond issuance program that expected being announced for next week. Poor finish to the week – down 64.

The SFE Futures were up 13 this morning. Earnings results dominating the headlines.