Asia Pacific Equity Daily – 21 April 09

Market comment

U.S. indices slumped on Monday, led by banks and real estate sectors. On the economic front, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators slid 0.3% in March.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 (Japan) rose 0.19% to 8924.75, the Hang Seng (HK) rose 0.96% to 15750.91 and the S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) fell 0.2% to 3769.

Economic releases

AU 03:30: Apr Reserve Bank’s Board April Minutes
AU 05:30: Apr RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Adelaide
HK : Mar Composite Interest Rate
US 23:00: Apr ABC Consumer Confidence

Corporate events

Results
None

Dividends
None

INDICES

Nikkei 225 (60 min)

Our preference: as long as 8935 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 8555 and then 8375 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: a break above 8935 would open the way to 9070.

Hang Seng (60 min)

Our preference: as long as 15977 is a resistance, a decline towards 15147 and even 14650 seems likely.

Alternative scenario: a break above 15977 would invalidate our bearish scenario. The index could then rise to 16250.

ASX 200 (60 min)

Our preference: as long as 3788 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 3680 and then 3610 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: a break above 3788 would call for a bounce to 3851.

STOCKS TO WATCH

Toyota Motor (7203)

Our preference: as long as 3890 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 3630 and then 3540 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: a break above 3890 would invalidate our bearish scenario. The stock could then rise to 4000.

Wesfarmers Limited (WES)

 Our preference: as long as 21.25 is a resistance, we are bearish with a target at 18.9.

Alternative scenario: only the upside breakout of 21.25 will invalidate our bearish scenario. In this case, a recovery should shape towards 22.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 26-2-09

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The market is up 20 – doing better-than-expected after the negative session in the US – outperforming the 10 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Macquarie has been getting thumped this year….down 62% from 4329c in January to a low of 1625c today. They have dropped 33% in less than two weeks….and you can’t even short the stock(!). They have popped out an announcement this morning telling us that they are not about to have a capital raising. There are suggestions on the newswires that ASIC (the government) will once again extend the ban on shorting financials from its expiry date a week tomorrow (March 6th). The stock is attracting a lot of attention and trade at the moment. Resources unchanged – BHP unchanged and RIO up 0.7% following a negative lead from the US miners.
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank down 5.1% having gone ex dividend. Fortescue Metals down 5.7% as it starts trading again having pulled a $500m institutional placement with institutions unwilling to pay the 248c price paid by Hunan
Valin. OZ Minerals up 9.1% after big falls yesterday with their Friday $1.1bn debt rollover deadline looming and suggestions they are moments away from announcing a $425m sale of assets. Pacific Brands are closing down their Australian manufacturing operations in Australia (7 factories) after 92 years and will be moving them offshore. They are sacking 1850 staff. Price up 11.4%. Wesfarmers has completed their Retail Entitlement offer. There was a 60% take up. Babcock & Brown Power (BBP) has had a profit warning. Arrow Energy (AOE) – Pure Energy independent directors accept the superior BG offer. BG will now have a 29% stake in PES. Shareholders accept BG bid.

Tricom Today ASX Stock Market Report 24-2-09

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The market is down 40 doing a bit better than the 78 point fall predicted by the SFE Futures this morning post the significant 3% plus falls in the US overnight. Property down the most again down 3.2% – Goodman Group down 12% early – had its recommendation cut by Macquarie Group yesterday after a recent profit warning. Results tomorrow. BHP and RIO down 1.6% and 1.8%. Industrials down 2.3% – Wesfarmers and Fosters down having gone ex dividend this morning. AMC and ASX also Ex dividend. Sonic Healthcare down 1.5% early on posting 1H NPAT up 21% to $136.5m. Aristocrat Leisure up 2.0% on the open posting FY NPAT of $101.2m down 59.1%, with final dividend to be 10c (already had a profit warning). Spark Infrastructure Ltd down 1.19% after posting a large fall in FY profit. Financials down 1.9% – Suncorp-Metway down 6% early on posting 1H NPAT of $258m, down 33% on-year with the CEO leaving next week. Macquarie Countrywide posted an in-line 1H NPAT loss of $714.1m with an interim distribution of 4c down 12% on the open. Macquarie Media booked a 1H net loss of $127.3m down 2.7% early. CBA is down 2.5% and underperforming the other banks today having announced they’d buy $2.25bn of Wizard Home Loan’s portfolio from GE, less than the $4bn worth previously suggested. Resources down 1.5% – Energy stocks
generally down on the lower oil price – Origin Energy up 0.3% as their 50.4% owned Contact Energy (NZ) posted in-line 1H NPAT down to NZ$25.1m. Oil Search Ltd posted FY NPAT up 128% to US$313.4m down 0.2%. Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd posted a 15% rise in 1H NPAT up 1.8%. Gold stocks mixed despite lower gold price – Sino Gold Mining posted net loss of $101.4m for the half up 1.6% early. St Barbara down 1.2% as it completes its share placement of $75m at 41c/share and posts 1H NPAT loss of 41.2m.

Tricom Today 29-1-09

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The market is up 29 underperforming the 63 point rise predicted by the SFE Futures this morning. Resources leading the way up 1.8% – BHP up 4.6% and RIO down 1.3%. Lots of RIO research this morning discussing the options for a capital raising after the announcement yesterday that a rights issue was a possibility. Financials up 1.0% – banks all up 1% or 2% – NAB outperforming up 3.0%. Industrials lagging – down 1.1% – Wesfarmers down 3.3% announcing a retail entitlement offer.

Tricom Today 22-1-09

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Our market is up 9 up 49 at best – a little disappointing considering Wall Street had a positive session overnight and the SFE Futures suggested a 46 point rise. Resources have managed to slip into negative territory but most of the other sectors are above water. The big news today is the extension of the shorting ban on financials by 6 weeks bringing relief to that sector and Wesfarmers going into a trading halt after announcing they will be raising $2.8bn in a 3 for 7 rights issue at 1350c.